Assessment of associations between transition diseases and reproductive performance of dairy cows using survival analysis and decision tree algorithms

This study aimed to evaluate the associations between transition cow conditions and diseases TD with fertility in Holstein cows, and to compare analytic methods for doing so. Kaplan-Meier, Cox proportional hazard, and decision tree models were used to analyze the associations of TD with the pregnancy risk at 120 and 210 DIM from a 1-year cohort with 1946 calvings from one farm. The association between TD and fertility was evaluated as follows: 1 cows with TD whether complicated with another TD or not TD-all, versus healthy cows, and 2 cows with uncomplicated TD TD-single, versus cows with multiple TD TD+; complicated cases, versus healthy cows. The occurrence of twins, milk fever, retained placenta, metritis, ketosis, displaced abomasum, and clinical mastitis were recorded. Using Kaplan-Meier models, in primiparous cows the 120 DIM pregnancy risk was 62% (95% CI: 57-67 %) for healthy animals. This was not significantly different for TD-single (58%; 95% CI: 51-66 %) but was reduced for TD+ (45%; 95% CI: 33-60 %). Among healthy primiparous cows, 80% (95% CI: 75-84 %) were pregnant by 210 DIM, but pregnancy risk at that time was reduced for primiparous cows with TD-single (72%; 95% CI: 65-79 %) and TD+ (62%; 95% CI: 49-75 %). In healthy multiparous cows, the 120 DIM pregnancy risk was 53% (95% CI: 49-56 %), which was reduced for TD-single (36%; 95% CI: 31-42 %) and TD+ (30%; 95% CI: 24-38 %). The 210 DIM pregnancy risk for healthy multiparous cows was 70% (95% CI: 67-72 %), being higher than the 210 DIM pregnancy risk for multiparous cows with TD-single (47%; 95% CI: 42-53 %) or TD+ (46%; 95% CI: 38-54 %). Cows with TD-all presented similar pregnancy risk estimates as for TD+. Cox proportional hazards regressions provided similar magnitudes of effects as the Kaplan-Meier estimates. Survival analysis and decision tree models identified parity as the most influential variable affecting fertility. Both modeling techniques concurred that TD + had a greater effect than TD-single on the probability of pregnancy at 120 and 210 DIM. Decision trees for individual TD identified that displaced abomasum affected fertility at 120 DIM in primiparous while metritis was the most influential TD at 120 and 210 DIM for multiparous cows. The data were too sparse to assess multiple interactions in multivariable Cox proportional hazard models for individual TD. Machine learning helped to explore interactions between individual TD to study their hierarchical effect on fertility, identifying conditional relationships that merit further investigation

General and comparative aspects of endometritis in domestic species: a review.

Endometritis is a leading cause of sub- and infertility in domestic animal species. The healthy uterus is colonized by commensal bacteria, viruses, and yeast/fungi that represent the non-pathogenic microbiota. A shift in the number or type of organisms accompanied by immune dysfunction, however, may trigger uterine infection and inflammation. Metritis is associated with inflammation of all uterine layers (endometrium, myometrium, and perimetrium) whereas endometritis is a more superficial inflammation involving solely the endometrium. Endometritis generally occurs at two time points in domestic animal species, post-partum and post-mating. Post-partum endometritis may chronically persist, either as a low-grade disease that often manifests as a vaginal discharge but not a systemic illness (in some species termed clinical endometritis) or sometimes subclinical where features are only detected by endometrial sampling. Contamination of the uterus at the time of mating occurs by direct deposition of semen (ejaculated or artificially inseminated) into the uterus. Improper drainage of the ejaculatory fluid or an inadequate immune response may result in persistent mating-induced endometritis. Both post-partum and post-mating endometritis interferes with fertility by creating a suboptimal environment for embryo development and placentation and chronic endometritis may have an impact on sperm survival and fertilisation ability. In the post-partum animal, there may also be changes in milk production and maternal behaviour which can affect offspring health and survival. Preventive strategies for endometritis largely depend on monitoring their known risk factors, which are sometimes specific with regard to the species. Effective, non-antibiotic therapy for endometritis is not available to date. Overall, extensive research has been performed in cattle and horses to unravel key aspects of endometritis, but in sows and bitches, the available literature is scant. Thus, the need and opportunity to investigate the condition vary considerably among domestic species and necessitate their comparative assessment. This article reviews general and comparative aspects of the diagnosis and classification, pathogenesis, preventive strategies, and therapeutics of endometritis in domestic species with a specific focus on cows, mares, sows, and bitches

Assessment of associations between transition diseases and reproductive performance of dairy cows using survival analysis and decision tree algorithms

This study aimed to evaluate the associations between transition cow conditions and diseases TD with fertility in Holstein cows, and to compare analytic methods for doing so. Kaplan-Meier, Cox proportional hazard, and decision tree models were used to analyze the associations of TD with the pregnancy risk at 120 and 210 DIM from a 1-year cohort with 1946 calvings from one farm. The association between TD and fertility was evaluated as follows: 1 cows with TD whether complicated with another TD or not TD-all, versus healthy cows, and 2 cows with uncomplicated TD TD-single, versus cows with multiple TD TD+; complicated cases, versus healthy cows. The occurrence of twins, milk fever, retained placenta, metritis, ketosis, displaced abomasum, and clinical mastitis were recorded. Using Kaplan-Meier models, in primiparous cows the 120 DIM pregnancy risk was 62% (95% CI: 57–67 %) for healthy animals. This was not significantly different for TD-single (58%; 95% CI: 51–66 %) but was reduced for TD+ (45%; 95% CI: 33–60 %). Among healthy primiparous cows, 80% (95% CI: 75–84 %) were pregnant by 210 DIM, but pregnancy risk at that time was reduced for primiparous cows with TD-single (72%; 95% CI: 65–79 %) and TD+ (62%; 95% CI: 49–75 %). In healthy multiparous cows, the 120 DIM pregnancy risk was 53% (95% CI: 49–56 %), which was reduced for TD-single (36%; 95% CI: 31–42 %) and TD+ (30%; 95% CI: 24–38 %). The 210 DIM pregnancy risk for healthy multiparous cows was 70% (95% CI: 67–72 %), being higher than the 210 DIM pregnancy risk for multiparous cows with TD-single (47%; 95% CI: 42–53 %) or TD+ (46%; 95% CI: 38–54 %). Cows with TD-all presented similar pregnancy risk estimates as for TD + . Cox proportional hazards regressions provided similar magnitudes of effects as the Kaplan-Meier estimates. Survival analysis and decision tree models identified parity as the most influential variable affecting fertility. Both modeling techniques concurred that TD + had a greater effect than TD-single on the probability of pregnancy at 120 and 210 DIM. Decision trees for individual TD identified that displaced abomasum affected fertility at 120 DIM in primiparous while metritis was the most influential TD at 120 and 210 DIM for multiparous cows. The data were too sparse to assess multiple interactions in multivariable Cox proportional hazard models for individual TD. Machine learning helped to explore interactions between individual TD to study their hierarchical effect on fertility, identifying conditional relationships that merit further investigation

Retrospective study of factors associated with bovine infectious abortion and perinatal mortality

Abortion and perinatal mortality, leading causes of economic loss in cattle industry, are the consequence of both non-infectious and a wide range of infectious causes. However, the relative contribution of pathogens to bovine abortion and perinatal mortality is poorly documented, since available studies involved only a limited number of pathogens. Therefore, the objectives of the present monitoring study were to determine the prevalence of infectious agents associated with bovine abortion and perinatal mortality, and to identify differences in production type, gestation length, parity and seasonality by using mixed effect models (logistic regression). A pre-established sampling protocol based on the collection of the aborted fetus/calf and a corresponding maternal blood sample, involving diagnostic testing for 10 pathogens, was performed. At least one potential causal agent of the abortion or perinatal mortality was detected in 39 % of cases. In these diagnosed cases, Neospora caninum was the most detected pathogen, followed by Trueperella pyogenes, BVDv, Escherichia coli, and Aspergillus fumigatus. Neospora caninum [odds ratio (OR): 0.4; 95 % confidence interval (CI): 0.3-0.7] and Aspergillus fumigatus (OR: 0.1; 95 % CI: 0.1-0.3) were detected less in late versus early gestation. Aspergillus fumigatus was less common in dairy in comparison to beef abortion cases (OR: 0.2; 95 % CI: 0.1-0.6). Winter was associated with a lower positivity for Neospora caninum and BVDv in comparison to warmer seasons. Despite extensive diagnostic testing, an etiological diagnosis was not reached in 61 % of cases, highlighting the need for even more extensive (non-)infectious disease testing or more accurate tests

Enhancing bovine abortion surveillance: A learning experience

ABSTRACT: Abortions and perinatal mortalities (APM) substantially affect cattle industry efficiency. Various infectious and noninfectious factors have been associated with bovine APM worldwide. Infections are often considered pivotal due to their abortifacient potential, leading laboratories to primarily investigate relevant infectious agents for APM cases. Some infectious causes, such as Brucella abortus, have also a zoonotic impact, necessitating monitoring for both animal and human health. However, underreporting of bovine APM is a global issue, affecting early detection of infectious and zoonotic causes. Previous studies identified factors influencing case submission, but regional characteristics may affect results. In Belgium, farmers are obliged to report cases of APM within the context of a national brucellosis monitoring program. The inclusion criteria for this monitoring program cover abortions (gestation length of 42–260 d) and perinatal mortalities of (pre)mature calves following a gestation length of more than 260 d, which were stillborn or died within 48 h after birth. The objective of the present study was to describe the evolution in submission of APM cases within a mandatory abortion monitoring program in relation to subsidized initiatives in the northern part of Belgium. Based on the proportion of APM submissions versus the proportion of bovine reproductive females, an APM proportion (APMPR) was calculated, and factors at both animal and herd level that may influence this APMPR were explored by using linear models. This evaluation revealed that the APMPR increased with the introduction of an extensive analytical panel of abortifacient agents and a free on-farm sample collection from 0.44% to 0.94%. Additionally, an increase of the APMPR was associated with an outbreak of an emerging abortifacient pathogen (Schmallenberg virus; 1.23%), and the introduction of a mandatory eradication program for bovine viral diarrhea virus (BVDv; 1.20%). The APMPR was higher in beef compared with dairy cattle, and it was higher in winter compared with fall, spring, and summer. Smaller herds categorized in the first quartile had a higher APMPR compared with larger herds. Herds that submitted an APM in the previous year had a higher APMPR in the next year compared with herds without an APM submission. Finally, herds for which there was evidence of the presence of BVDv had a higher APMPR compared with herds without evidence of the presence of BVDv. In conclusion, the number of APM submissions increased after the introduction of a free on-farm sample collection and an extensive pathogen screening panel. Production type (beef), season (winter), smaller herd size, previous APM, and presence of BVDv seemed to have a positive effect on APMPR. However, even under mandatory circumstances, APM still seems to be underreported, since the APMPR was lower than the expected minimal rate of 2%. Therefore, further research is necessary to identify the drivers that convince farmers to submit APM cases to improve submission rates and ensure an efficient monitoring program for APM and eventually associated zoonotic pathogens

Assessment of associations between transition diseases and reproductive performance of dairy cows using survival analysis and decision tree algorithms

This study aimed to evaluate the associations between transition cow conditions and diseases TD with fertility in Holstein cows, and to compare analytic methods for doing so. Kaplan-Meier, Cox proportional hazard, and decision tree models were used to analyze the associations of TD with the pregnancy risk at 120 and 210 DIM from a 1-year cohort with 1946 calvings from one farm. The association between TD and fertility was evaluated as follows: 1 cows with TD whether complicated with another TD or not TD-all, versus healthy cows, and 2 cows with uncomplicated TD TD-single, versus cows with multiple TD TD+; complicated cases, versus healthy cows. The occurrence of twins, milk fever, retained placenta, metritis, ketosis, displaced abomasum, and clinical mastitis were recorded. Using Kaplan-Meier models, in primiparous cows the 120 DIM pregnancy risk was 62% (95% CI: 57–67 %) for healthy animals. This was not significantly different for TD-single (58%; 95% CI: 51–66 %) but was reduced for TD+ (45%; 95% CI: 33–60 %). Among healthy primiparous cows, 80% (95% CI: 75–84 %) were pregnant by 210 DIM, but pregnancy risk at that time was reduced for primiparous cows with TD-single (72%; 95% CI: 65–79 %) and TD+ (62%; 95% CI: 49–75 %). In healthy multiparous cows, the 120 DIM pregnancy risk was 53% (95% CI: 49–56 %), which was reduced for TD-single (36%; 95% CI: 31–42 %) and TD+ (30%; 95% CI: 24–38 %). The 210 DIM pregnancy risk for healthy multiparous cows was 70% (95% CI: 67–72 %), being higher than the 210 DIM pregnancy risk for multiparous cows with TD-single (47%; 95% CI: 42–53 %) or TD+ (46%; 95% CI: 38–54 %). Cows with TD-all presented similar pregnancy risk estimates as for TD + . Cox proportional hazards regressions provided similar magnitudes of effects as the Kaplan-Meier estimates. Survival analysis and decision tree models identified parity as the most influential variable affecting fertility. Both modeling techniques concurred that TD + had a greater effect than TD-single on the probability of pregnancy at 120 and 210 DIM. Decision trees for individual TD identified that displaced abomasum affected fertility at 120 DIM in primiparous while metritis was the most influential TD at 120 and 210 DIM for multiparous cows. The data were too sparse to assess multiple interactions in multivariable Cox proportional hazard models for individual TD. Machine learning helped to explore interactions between individual TD to study their hierarchical effect on fertility, identifying conditional relationships that merit further investigation