Determinants of survival of people living with HIV/AIDS on antiretroviral therapy in Brazil 2006-2015

Background We compared AIDS-related mortality rates in people living with HIV (PLHIV) starting antiretroviral therapy (ART) in Brazil during 2006–2015 and examined associated risk factors . Methods Data on ART use in PLHIV and AIDS mortality in Brazil was analysed with piecewise constant exponential models. Mortality rates and hazard ratios were estimated for 0–6, 6–12, 13–24, 25–36 and > 36 months of ART use and adjusted for region, age, sex, baseline CD4 cell count and calendar year of ART initiation. An additional analysis restricted to those with data on risk group was also performed. Results 269,076 individuals were included in the analysis, 165,643 (62%) males and 103,433 (38%) females, with 1,783,305 person-years of follow-up time. 21,749 AIDS deaths were reported and 8898 deaths occurred in the first year of ART. The risk of death in the first six months decreased with early ART initiation; those starting treatment early with CD4 > 500 cells per μL had a hazard ratio of 0.06 (95% CI 0.05–0.07) compared with CD4 < 200 cells per μL. Older age, male sex, intravenous drug use and starting treatment in earlier calendar years were associated with higher mortality rates. People living in the North, Northeast and South of Brazil experienced significantly higher AIDS mortality rates than those in the Southeast (HR 1.44, [95% CI 1.35–1.54], 1.10 [1.05–1.16] and 1.22 [1.17–1.28] respectively). Conclusions Early treatment is likely to have contributed to the improved survival in PLHIV on ART, with the greatest benefits observed in women, younger age-groups and those living in the North

Subnotificação da comorbidade tuberculose e aids: uma aplicação do método de linkage

OBJETIVO: Analisar a subnotificação da comorbidade tuberculose (TB) e aids. MÉTODOS: Estudo de vigilância utilizando os registros do Sistema de Informação de Agravos de Notificação de Tuberculose e de aids no Brasil de 2000 a 2005. Registros de TB sem informação da presença de aids foram considerados subnotificações da comorbidade quando pareados a registros de aids que apresentassem ano de diagnóstico de aids igual ou anterior ao ano de notificação da TB, assim como os registros de um mesmo paciente cujos registros anteriores apresentavam essa informação. Criou-se um indicador: comorbidade TB-aids reconhecida, a partir dos registros de TB com a informação de presença de aids. RESULTADOS: A subnotificação de TB-aids foi de 17,7%. Esse percentual variou entre estados. A incorporação dos registros subnotificados aos previamente reconhecidos elevou a proporção de TB-aids no Brasil de 6,9% para 8,4%. As maiores proporções de subnotificação foram observadas no Acre, Alagoas, Maranhão e Piauí (mais de 35% cada) e as menores em São Paulo e Goiás (cerca de 10% cada). CONCLUSÕES: A subnotificação da comorbidade TB-aids encontrada no Brasil deve deflagrar modificações no sistema de vigilância para prover informações aos programas nacionais.OBJECTIVE: To analyze the underreporting of the tuberculosis (TB) and AIDS comorbidity. METHODS: Surveillance study using records from the Notifiable Diseases Information System - Tuberculosis and AIDS in Brazil from 2000 to 2005. Records of TB without information on the presence of Aids were considered to be underreporting of the comorbidity when paired off with AIDS records in which the year of diagnosis of AIDS was the same or previous to the year of reporting of TB, as well as records from the same patient whose previous records had this information. An indicator was created: recognized TB-AIDS comorbidity, based on the TB records that had information on the presence of AIDS. RESULTS: The underreporting of TB-AIDS was 17.7%. This percentage varied between states. The incorporation of the underreported records into the previously recognized ones increased the proportion of TB-AIDS in Brazil from 6.9% to 8.4%. The highest proportions of underreporting were noted in Acre (Northern), Alagoas, Maranhão and Piauí (Northeastern) (more than 35% each) and the lowest in São Paulo (Southeastern) and Goiás (Central-western) (around 10% each). CONCLUSIONS: The underreporting of the TB-AIDS comorbidity found in Brazil will probably trigger modifications in the surveillance system in order to provide information for the national programs.OBJETIVO: Analizar la subnotificación de la comorbilidad tuberculosis (TB) y sida. MÉTODOS: Estudio de vigilancia utilizando los registros del Sistema de Información de Agravios de Notificación de Tuberculosis y de sida en Brasil de 2000 a 2005. Registros de TB sin información de la presencia de sida fueron consideradas subnotificaciones de la comorbilidad cuando se parearon a registros de sida que presentaron año de diagnóstico de sida igual o anterior al año de notificación de la TB, así como los registros de un mismo paciente cuyos registros anteriores presentaban esa información. Se creó un indicador: comorbilidad TB-sida reconocida, a partir de los registros de TB con la información de presencia de sida. RESULTADOS: La subnotificación de TB-sida fue de 17,7%. Este porcentaje varió entre estados. La incorporación de los registros subnotificados a los previamente reconocidos elevó la proporción de TB-sida en Brasil de 6,9% a 8,4%. Las mayores proporciones de subnotificación fueron observadas en Acre, Alagoas, Maranhao y Piauí (más de 35% en cada uno) y las menores en Sao Paulo y Goiás (cerca de 10% en cada uno). CONCLUSIONES: La subnotificación de la comorbilidad TB-sida encontrada en Brasil debe deflagrar modificaciones en el sistema de vigilancia para proveer informaciones a los programas nacionales

Estimating HIV incidence from surveillance data indicates a second wave of infections in Brazil

Emerging evidence suggests that HIV incidence rates in Brazil, particularly among men, may be rising. Here we use Brazil’s integrated health systems data to develop a mathematical model, reproducing the complex surveillance systems and providing estimates of HIV incidence, number of people living with HIV (PLHIV), reporting rates and ART initiation rates. An age-structured deterministic model with a flexible spline was used to describe the natural history of HIV along with reporting and treatment rates. Individual-level surveillance data for 1,077,295 cases (HIV/AIDS diagnoses, ART dispensations, CD4 counts and HIV/AIDS-related deaths) were used to calibrate the model using Bayesian inference. The results showed a second wave of infections occurring after 2001 and 56,000 (95% Credible Interval 43,000–71,000) new infections in 2015, 37,000 (95% CrI 28,000–54,000) infections in men and 16,000 (95% CrI 10,000–23,000) in women. The estimated number of PLHIV by end-2015 was 838,000 (95% CrI 675,000–1,083,000), with 80% (95% CrI 62–98%) of those individuals reported to the Ministry of Health. Women were more likely to be diagnosed and reported than men; 86.8% of infected women had been reported compared with 75.7% of men. Likewise, ART initiation rates for women were higher than those for men. The second wave contradicts previous estimates of HIV incidence trends in Brazil and there were persistent differences in the rates of accessing care between men and women. Nevertheless, the Brazilian HIV program has achieved high rates of detection and treatment, making considerable progress over the past ten years