Genetic and antigenic characterization of influenza A/H5N1 viruses isolated from patients in Indonesia, 2008–2015

Since the initial detection in 2003, Indonesia has reported 200 human cases of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 (HPAI H5N1), associated with an exceptionally high case fatality rate (84%) compared to other geographical regions affected by other genetic clades of the virus. However, there is limited information on the genetic diversity of HPAI H5N1 viruses, especially those isolated from humans in Indonesia. In this study, the genetic and antigenic characteristics of 35 HPAI H5N1 viruses isolated from humans were analyzed. Full genome sequences were analyzed for the presence of substitutions in the receptor binding site, and p

The molecular epidemiology of multiple zoonotic origins of SARS-CoV-2

Understanding the circumstances that lead to pandemics is important for their prevention. Here, we analyze the genomic diversity of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) early in the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. We show that SARS-CoV-2 genomic diversity before February 2020 likely comprised only two distinct viral lineages, denoted A and B. Phylodynamic rooting methods, coupled with epidemic simulations, reveal that these lineages were the result of at least two separate cross-species transmission events into humans. The first zoonotic transmission likely involved lineage B viruses around 18 November 2019 (23 October–8 December), while the separate introduction of lineage A likely occurred within weeks of this event. These findings indicate that it is unlikely that SARS-CoV-2 circulated widely in humans prior to November 2019 and define the narrow window between when SARS-CoV-2 first jumped into humans and when the first cases of COVID-19 were reported. As with other coronaviruses, SARS-CoV-2 emergence likely resulted from multiple zoonotic events

Emergence and spread of two SARS-CoV-2 variants of interest in Nigeria.

Identifying the dissemination patterns and impacts of a virus of economic or health importance during a pandemic is crucial, as it informs the public on policies for containment in order to reduce the spread of the virus. In this study, we integrated genomic and travel data to investigate the emergence and spread of the SARS-CoV-2 B.1.1.318 and B.1.525 (Eta) variants of interest in Nigeria and the wider Africa region. By integrating travel data and phylogeographic reconstructions, we find that these two variants that arose during the second wave in Nigeria emerged from within Africa, with the B.1.525 from Nigeria, and then spread to other parts of the world. Data from this study show how regional connectivity of Nigeria drove the spread of these variants of interest to surrounding countries and those connected by air-traffic. Our findings demonstrate the power of genomic analysis when combined with mobility and epidemiological data to identify the drivers of transmission, as bidirectional transmission within and between African nations are grossly underestimated as seen in our import risk index estimates

Introduction and Establishment of SARS-CoV-2 Gamma Variant in New York City in Early 2021

BackgroundMonitoring the emergence and spread of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variants is an important public health objective. We investigated how the Gamma variant was established in New York City (NYC) in early 2021 in the presence of travel restrictions that aimed to prevent viral spread from Brazil, the country where the variant was first identified.MethodsWe performed phylogeographic analysis on 15 967 Gamma sequences sampled between 10 March and 1 May 2021, to identify geographic sources of Gamma lineages introduced into NYC. We identified locally circulating Gamma transmission clusters and inferred the timing of their establishment in NYC.ResultsWe identified 16 phylogenetically distinct Gamma clusters established in NYC (cluster sizes ranged 2-108 genomes); most of them were introduced from Florida and Illinois and only 1 directly from Brazil. By the time the first Gamma case was reported by genomic surveillance in NYC on 10 March, the majority (57%) of circulating Gamma lineages had already been established in the city for at least 2 weeks.ConclusionsAlthough travel from Brazil to the United States was restricted from May 2020 through the end of the study period, this restriction did not prevent Gamma from becoming established in NYC as most introductions occurred from domestic locations

The molecular epidemiology of multiple zoonotic origins of SARS-CoV-2.

Understanding the circumstances that lead to pandemics is important for their prevention. We analyzed the genomic diversity of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) early in the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. We show that SARS-CoV-2 genomic diversity before February 2020 likely comprised only two distinct viral lineages, denoted "A" and "B." Phylodynamic rooting methods, coupled with epidemic simulations, reveal that these lineages were the result of at least two separate cross-species transmission events into humans. The first zoonotic transmission likely involved lineage B viruses around 18 November 2019 (23 October to 8 December), and the separate introduction of lineage A likely occurred within weeks of this event. These findings indicate that it is unlikely that SARS-CoV-2 circulated widely in humans before November 2019 and define the narrow window between when SARS-CoV-2 first jumped into humans and when the first cases of COVID-19 were reported. As with other coronaviruses, SARS-CoV-2 emergence likely resulted from multiple zoonotic events

Genomic surveillance reveals dynamic shifts in the connectivity of COVID-19 epidemics

Summary: The maturation of genomic surveillance in the past decade has enabled tracking of the emergence and spread of epidemics at an unprecedented level. During the COVID-19 pandemic, for example, genomic data revealed that local epidemics varied considerably in the frequency of SARS-CoV-2 lineage importation and persistence, likely due to a combination of COVID-19 restrictions and changing connectivity. Here, we show that local COVID-19 epidemics are driven by regional transmission, including across international boundaries, but can become increasingly connected to distant locations following the relaxation of public health interventions. By integrating genomic, mobility, and epidemiological data, we find abundant transmission occurring between both adjacent and distant locations, supported by dynamic mobility patterns. We find that changing connectivity significantly influences local COVID-19 incidence. Our findings demonstrate a complex meaning of ‘local’ when investigating connected epidemics and emphasize the importance of collaborative interventions for pandemic prevention and mitigation

Wastewater sequencing reveals early cryptic SARS-CoV-2 variant transmission.

As SARS-CoV-2 continues to spread and evolve, detecting emerging variants early is critical for public health interventions. Inferring lineage prevalence by clinical testing is infeasible at scale, especially in areas with limited resources, participation, or testing and/or sequencing capacity, which can also introduce biases1-3. SARS-CoV-2 RNA concentration in wastewater successfully tracks regional infection dynamics and provides less biased abundance estimates than clinical testing4,5. Tracking virus genomic sequences in wastewater would improve community prevalence estimates and detect emerging variants. However, two factors limit wastewater-based genomic surveillance: low-quality sequence data and inability to estimate relative lineage abundance in mixed samples. Here we resolve these critical issues to perform a high-resolution, 295-day wastewater and clinical sequencing effort, in the controlled environment of a large university campus and the broader context of the surrounding county. We developed and deployed improved virus concentration protocols and deconvolution software that fully resolve multiple virus strains from wastewater. We detected emerging variants of concern up to 14 days earlier in wastewater samples, and identified multiple instances of virus spread not captured by clinical genomic surveillance. Our study provides a scalable solution for wastewater genomic surveillance that allows early detection of SARS-CoV-2 variants and identification of cryptic transmission