Containing the Spread of Infectious Disease on College Campuses [preprint]

College campuses are highly vulnerable to infectious disease outbreaks, and there is a pressing need to develop better strategies to mitigate their size and duration, particularly as educational institutions around the world reopen to in-person instruction in the midst of the COVID-19 pandemic. Towards addressing this need, we applied a stochastic compartmental model to quantify the impact of university-level responses to past mumps outbreaks in college campuses and used it to determine which control interventions are most effective. Mumps is a very relevant disease in such settings, given its airborne mode of transmission, high infectivity, and recurrence of outbreaks despite availability of a vaccine. Our model aims to simultaneously overcome three crucial issues: stochastic variation in small populations, missing or unobserved case data, and changes in disease transmission rates post-intervention. We tested the model and assessed various interventions using data from the 2014 and 2016 mumps outbreaks at Ohio State University and Harvard University, respectively. Our results suggest that in order to decrease infectious disease incidence on their campuses, universities should apply diagnostic protocols that address false negatives from molecular tests, stricter quarantine policies, and effective awareness campaigns among their students and staff. Our model can be applied to data from other outbreaks in college campuses and similar small-population settings

Genome-wide scans provide evidence for positive selection of genes implicated in Lassa fever

Rapidly evolving viruses and other pathogens can have an immense impact on human evolution as natural selection acts to increase the prevalence of genetic variants providing resistance to disease. With the emergence of large datasets of human genetic variation, we can search for signatures of natural selection in the human genome driven by such disease-causing microorganisms. Based on this approach, we have previously hypothesized that Lassa virus (LASV) may have been a driver of natural selection in West African populations where Lassa haemorrhagic fever is endemic. In this study, we provide further evidence for this notion. By applying tests for selection to genome-wide data from the International Haplotype Map Consortium and the 1000 Genomes Consortium, we demonstrate evidence for positive selection in LARGE and interleukin 21 (IL21), two genes implicated in LASV infectivity and immunity. We further localized the signals of selection, using the recently developed composite of multiple signals method, to introns and putative regulatory regions of those genes. Our results suggest that natural selection may have targeted variants giving rise to alternative splicing or differential gene expression of LARGE and IL21. Overall, our study supports the hypothesis that selective pressures imposed by LASV may have led to the emergence of particular alleles conferring resistance to Lassa fever, and opens up new avenues of research pursuit

Genetic Signatures of Strong Recent Positive Selection at the Lactase Gene

In most human populations, the ability to digest lactose contained in milk usually disappears in childhood, but in European-derived populations, lactase activity frequently persists into adulthood (Scrimshaw and Murray 1988). It has been suggested (Cavalli-Sforza 1973; Hollox et al. 2001; Enattah et al. 2002; Poulter et al. 2003) that a selective advantage based on additional nutrition from dairy explains these genetically determined population differences (Simoons 1970; Kretchmer 1971; Scrimshaw and Murray 1988; Enattah et al. 2002), but formal population-genetics–based evidence of selection has not yet been provided. To assess the population-genetics evidence for selection, we typed 101 single-nucleotide polymorphisms covering 3.2 Mb around the lactase gene. In northern European–derived populations, two alleles that are tightly associated with lactase persistence (Enattah et al. 2002) uniquely mark a common (∼77%) haplotype that extends largely undisrupted for >1 Mb. We provide two new lines of genetic evidence that this long, common haplotype arose rapidly due to recent selection: (1) by use of the traditional FST measure and a novel test based on pexcess, we demonstrate large frequency differences among populations for the persistence-associated markers and for flanking markers throughout the haplotype, and (2) we show that the haplotype is unusually long, given its high frequency—a hallmark of recent selection. We estimate that strong selection occurred within the past 5,000–10,000 years, consistent with an advantage to lactase persistence in the setting of dairy farming; the signals of selection we observe are among the strongest yet seen for any gene in the genome