Η θεωρία του οικονομικού κύκλου: μια θεωρητική και εμπειρική διερεύνηση

326 σ.Η παρούσα διατριβή καταπιάνεται με την έννοια του οικονομικού κύκλου, μια έννοια που είναι από τις πιο θεμελιακές της οικονομικής επιστήμης και η οποία σχετίζεται με μια σειρά εννοιών, όπως η «ύφεση», η «άνθιση», η «φτώχεια», ο «πλούτος», το «εισόδημα» κ.ο.κ. Σε αυτήν την κατεύθυνση, αναλύεται η έννοια με τρόπο συστηματικό, τόσο σε θεωρητικό όσο και σε εμπειρικό επίπεδο. Ως οικονομικός κύκλος ορίζεται το φαινόμενο των οικονομικών διακυμάνσεων που προσιδιάζουν στη μορφή (γεωμετρικού) κύκλου, με φάσεις ανόδου και πτώσης που ακολουθούν η μια την άλλη και με υπαρκτή περιοδικότητα (σταθερή ή μη). Έτσι, σκιαγραφείται το πλαίσιο οικοδόμησης της έννοιας του οικονομικού κύκλου από τις απαρχές της οικονομικής επιστήμης μέχρι σήμερα σε ένα ευρύτερο ιστορικό και μεθοδολογικό πλαίσιο. Επίσης, αναπτύσσονται τρία κριτήρια προκειμένου να μελετηθούν, σε ένα ευρύτερο πλαίσιο, οι ήδη διαμορφωμένες σχολές. Στο ίδιο πνεύμα, αναλύονται συγκριτικά οι Thorstein Veblen και Joseph Schumpeter, οι οποίοι αποτελούν χαρακτηριστικά παραδείγματα συστηματικής ανάλυσης του οικονομικού κύκλου, αλλά και συνολικής μετατόπισης προς μια ερμηνεία με βάση την Πολιτική Οικονομία. Ακόμα, δομείται μια οικονομετρική διατύπωση του οικονομικού κύκλου που είναι συνεπής με τις θεωρητικές διατυπώσεις. Μέσω αυτής της οικονομετρικής διατύπωσης, εξετάζεται η έννοια του συγχρονισμού των οικονομικών κύκλων, αλλά και αυτή της οικοδόμησης των άριστων νομισματικών περιοχών, συνθέτοντας διαφορετικές μεταξύ τους όψεις του συγχρονισμού. Στο πλαίσιο αυτό, διατυπώνονται συνολικότερα ερωτήματα όπως το ερώτημα της κατεύθυνσης των οικονομικών διακυμάνσεων αλλά και εκείνο της μετάδοσής τους. Επειπλέον, αναλύεται ο ρόλος των δημοσιονομικών πολιτικών στη δημιουργία και την άμβλυνση των οικονομικών διακυμάνσεων για τις χώρες της Οικονομικής και Νομισματικής Ένωσης, σε μια περίοδο μάλιστα, που οι χώρες αυτές έχουν απολέσει τη δυνατότητα παρέμβασης στην νομισματική σφαίρα. Τέλος, μελετάται η φύση των διακυμάνσεων συγκρίνοντας μεταξύ συνολικής οικονομίας και επίπεδου κλάδου. Εστιάζουμε στον κλάδο μεταποίησης τροφίμων των Η.Π.Α., μια επιλογή που οφείλεται σε μια σειρά χαρακτηριστικών που συγκεντρώνει, όπως μεγάλη ανελαστικότητα ζήτησης, συγκεντροποίηση και υψηλή κερδοφορία. Μελετάται η σημασία της τεχνολογικής αλλαγής και του ποσοστού κέρδους στη δημιουργία διακυμάνσεων εντός του κλάδου. Στις παραπάνω αναλύσεις, χρησιμοποιούνται διαφορετικά οικονομετρικά εργαλεία και διαφορετικές χρονικές περίοδοι προκειμένου να σκιαγραφηθεί η πληρέστερη δυνατή εικόνα. Η διατριβή αυτή έθεσε μια αλληλουχία ερωτημάτων, με τέτοιο τρόπο που οι απαντήσεις ευελπιστούμε να συγκροτούν μια συστηματική και συνεκτική μελέτη για τον οικονομικό κύκλο. Χρησιμοποίησε τη θεωρία ως το «περιβάλλον» εκείνο μέσα στο οποίο τίθενται τα ερωτήματα και στο οποίο χρησιμοποιούνται τα οικονομετρικά εργαλεία αποσκοπώντας στην κατανόηση, ερμηνεία και στοχασμό επί του οικονομικού κύκλου και στη διατύπωση προτάσεων επί οικονομικών φαινομένων, όπως η ύφεση, η λιτότητα και οι κρίσεις. Σε όλη αυτήν την πορεία ενδέχεται να ανακύπτουν ερωτήματα των οποίων η απάντηση θα μπορούσε να δίνει αφορμές για περαιτέρω επιστημονική έρευνα και για νέες απόπειρες, είτε από εμάς είτε από άλλους μελετητές.The hereunto doctoral thesis tries to deal with the concept of the business cycle, a concept which is on the one hand one of the fundamentals of economic theory, and on the other is related with numerous concepts of economic life, such as, “boom”, “burst”, “wealth”, “poverty”, “income”, etc. In that purpose, the concept is analyzed in a systematic way, on a methodological, theoretical, empirical and mathematical way. Business cycle is the phenomenon defined as fluctuations that may resemble to geometrical cycle, with phases of boom and burst that follow each other and with fixed or not, existing though periodicity. As a result, the framework of construction of the concept is analyzed from the very birth of economic science until today in the broader methodological and historical context along with an effort to relate the concept with epistemological and philosophical premises. Furthermore, three criteria are established in order to dissociate and reformulate the existing separations with respect to the concept under analysis and driven from methodological empirical and philosophical issues. In the same spirit, Joseph Schumpeter and Torstein Veblen are analyzed comparatively. They pose not only characteristic paradigms of a systematic analysis of business cycles on various levels, but also they confirm holistic shifts towards an interpretation on the basis of political economy. Additionally, a formal mathematical representation of business cycles is built, consistent with the theoretical apparatus. With the mathematical representation the problem of synchronisation of business cycles and the issue of optimal currency area theory are addressed, composing different views of synchronization. In this model broader questions are concentred, such as the question of the direction of economic fluctuations and that of the contagious transmission of pathological fluctuations. In addition, the role of fiscal policy variables in the generation of fluctuations is analysed for the countries formulating the Economic and Monetary Union, in a period that countries have lost their ability to implement their own monetary policy, and thus fiscal policy has proved to be the only field of countercyclical policy implementation. Finally, in that thesis the nature of fluctuations is analysed in the sectoral level compared to the whole economy. We focused on the sector of food manufacturing owing to its numerous special characteristics, such as high demand inelasticity, high profitability and high concentration. The influence of technological change and of the profit rate on the creation of fluctuations on sectoral level is studied. In the aforementioned models and analysis various mathematical and econometric tools were used along with various periods for the analysis in order to obtain the most complete view of the phenomenon. This thesis has set a succession of questions, in a way that the answers structure a systematic and cohesive study of the business cycle. Theory was used as the framework in which questions are posed and mathematical and econometric tools are used, aiming at understanding, interpreting and reflecting on the issue of business cycle and policy implementation against economic phenomena such as burst, severity and crises. Under all that way it is possible for questions to arise, the answer of which is a complex issue that could be the topic of further scientific research.Θεοφάνης Μ.Παπαγεωργίο

Financial sector and business cycles determinants in the EMU : an empirical approach (1996-2011)

This paper investigates potential business cycles determinants for the EMU countries among financial sector indicators examining at the same time the link between financial sector variables and business cycles volatility. We find that the total value of stocks traded, the private sector debt and the net inflows of FDI constitute significant determinants of business cycles fluctuations. Financial openness has an increasing effect on business cycles volatility while there is an unsettled relationship between financial depth and volatility. Another important finding of the paper is that the analysis provides evidence in favor of the occurrence of opportunistic political business cycles among EMU counterparts. The robustness of the above findings is verified via the use of relevant econometric methods such as EGLS, GLM and fixed-effect models.peer-reviewe

The Changing Geography of Debt and IMF's Involvement: From Global to European South

The risk reassessment process having taken place after the outburst of the crisis of 2008 highlights the role of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) as a last resort lender. In this article, we try to evaluate the fiscal and political presuppositions of the IMF's recent history toward crediting countries, focusing particularly in the case of Greece. We try to unravel the specific neoliberal dogma suppressing the Greek people, and the practices through which it succeeds in this direction, concluding that debt accumulation is acting rather as a disciplinary force than as a request for repayment. Furthermore, we focus on the issues that come up along with debt relief process, and the policy shifts in the IMF's history, arguing that different strategies of capital are unfolding: a moderate New Keynesianism based on the capitalist “utopia” of the unburdened state, and another offensive neoliberalism based on an antagonistic relationship between the creditor and the debtor with reference to “biopolitics.

Financial Sector and Business Cycles Determinants in the EMU context: An Empirical Approach (1996-2011)

This paper investigates potential business cycles determinants for the EMU countries among financial sector indicators examining at the same time the link between financial sector variables and business cycles volatility. We find that the total value of stocks traded, the private sector debt and the net inflows of FDI constitute significant determinants of business cycles fluctuations. Financial openness has an increasing effect on business cycles volatility while there is an unsettled relationship between financial depth and volatility. Another important finding of the paper is that the analysis provides evidence in favor of the occurrence of opportunistic political business cycles among EMU counterparts. The robustness of the above findings is verified via the use of relevant econometric methods such as EGLS, GLM and fixed-effect models

Economic Fluctuations, Cyclical Regularities and Technological Change: The U.S. Food Sector (1958–2006)

Despite the fact that the U.S. food sector is a key component of U.S. manufacturing, it has attracted limited attention in the literature, so far. In fact, the recent food crisis shed some light on different aspects of the food sector, its products and its influence on millions of people. The sector is characterised by increasing concentration, changes in relative prices, shifts in consumer preferences and changes in government regulations. However, key issues related to technological change and the cyclical regularities of economic time series in the sector have been neglected or even unexplored in the literature. Our study provides robust evidence supporting the fact that technological change has explanatory power for output and profitability in the Granger-causal sense at various leads or lags. Also, the timing pattern of technological change indicates that the peak correlations appear at moderate lags. This implies that the technology shocks are transmitted in the economy relatively quickly. Also, the various economic time series in the sector seem to follow a cyclical pattern characterized by periodicities exhibiting a short-term cycle, a mid-term cycle and a long-term cycle

Schumpeter, Veblen and Bourdieu on Institutions and the Formation of Habits

As we know, Joseph Alois Schumpeter is one of the greatest economists of all times, while Thorstein Veblen is an economist and sociologist who made seminal contributions to the social sciences. Pierre Bourdieu, meanwhile, is one of the most famous structural sociologists, who has consistently worked on economic dynamics. These three scholars have laid the foundations of a socioeconomic perspective. However, several important aspects of their works remain less widely discussed, or even inadequately explored in a comparative manner. Of course, investigating the origins of their ideas in evolutionary and institutional economics and re-evaluating comparatively the influences that shaped their works is quite useful for promoting dialogue between Economics and Sociology. Within this framework, this essay focuses on the conceptual relationship between Schumpeter, Veblen and Bourdieu. Evolution and Change shape the economic life in their respective works and, in such a framework a central point of their analyses is the interdependence between the cultural, social and economic spheres. Furthermore, an economic sociology is built around the concept of habit formation. The three great authors’ systemic views focus on the various institutions and other aspects of cultural, social and economic life, where habits are formed and cover diverse fields and notions such as Consumption, Preferences, Art, Knowledge, Banking and even Capitalism. For instance, all three social scientists acknowledged the fact that the internal dynamics of capitalism introduce structural instabilities into the economic system. Also, they recognized that research and knowledge development is a collective social process. However, from a methodological perspective, their main emphasis is on the emerging dynamic evolution of habits, which is perceived as the interruption of already existing social norms and the conflict between routine and change. Several differences between Schumpeter, Veblen and Bourdieu are observed and analysed and ideas for future research are presented

Sector size, technical change and stability in the USA (1957-2006): a Schumpeterian approach

The main purpose of this paper is to investigate two famous postulates of the Schumpeter hypothesis and its implications for the U.S. economy. Analytically, we investigate whether sector size matters for sectoral (i) technological change and (ii) stability, as expressed through the relevant quantitative measures and variables. To this end, we test a number of relevant models that express the various forms of this relationship. More precisely, we use panel data for the fourteen main sectors of economic activity in the U.S.A. over the period 1957-2006, just before the first signs of the US and global recession made their appearance. The results seem to be in line with the Schumpeterian postulate that market size matters for technological change and economic stability, for the US economy (1957-2006). Clearly, further research would be of great interest

Business cycles in Greek maritime transport: an econometric exploration (1998–2015)

Maritime transport has been a crucial input for the growth of the Greek economy given that the Greek fleet is one of largest merchant fleets in the world. However, the impact of the local and international business cycle on Greek maritime transport is inadequately researched, so far, in the literature. In this context, the present paper investigates the key determinants of maritime transport fluctuations in the three major ports of the Greek hinterland, taking into account a number of variables for the 1998–2015 time-span, capturing, at least partly, the global financial crisis and the local crisis, as well. To this end, various relevant quantitative techniques have been used, such as Granger causality, Dufour and Renault multistep causality and SURE system estimation. Our main finding is that Greek maritime transport traffic, as expressed through the cargo volumes of the three major ports of Piraeus, Volos and Thessaloniki, has not been influenced by the Greek business cycle, implying that the country’s maritime sector is practically independent of the macroeconomic conditions of the total economy. Clearly, future and more extended research would be relevant in the direction of applying the aforementioned approach to other EU countries of the Mediterranean