A system dynamics model of socio-technical regime transitions

Formal modelling of sociotechnical transitions has so far focused either on reproducing known historical case studies or on generic transition models that encompass some of the characteristics of the underlying processes. This article presents a model that captures the unfolding dynamics of an existing technological regime and the emerging niches as they compete and respond to landscape pressures. The theoretical basis is the “Multi-Level Perspective” (MLP) framework. The development of new technologies in niches is endogenous and stochastic. Model analysis can be seen as a test of the dynamic consistency of the MLP substitution pathway. Simulation results are consistent with what MLP theory suggests and raise relevant questions and insights for future modelling work on transition pathways and theory development

Transition Inertia Due To Competition In Supply Chains With Remanufacturing And Recycling: A Systems Dynamics Model

This paper studies the link between capital goods supply chains and sociotechnical transitions. Research on the latter has so far tended to focus on sustainability, energy and transport systems. Despite the considerable shift from products to services, supply chains are an integral element of most sociotechnical systems and there seems to be no foreseeable substitute for them. Consequently, for transitions to sustainability to take place, the inertia of supply chains in these systems has to be overcome and their environmental impact reduced. The paper explores this with a system dynamics model of a supply chain. While remanufacturing of used products by the retailer and recycling by the supplier can reduce the environmental impact of the supply chain, competition in the market between new and remanufactured products forces them into a situation where improving business and environmental performance is difficult

Towards multi-system sociotechnical transitions: why simulate

A number of research frameworks have been developed for studying sociotechnical transitions. These are complex phenomena, particularly those involving multi-system interactions. Given these characteristics, the paper discusses the challenges in studying transitions solely through inductive inference methods. It argues that transition research has reached a point where taking the next step should include modelling and simulation as part of the standard methodological exploratory toolkit for studying the intensity, nature and timing of system interaction that lead to transitions and for producing timely and robust policy recommendations

Internal Supply-chain Competition In Remanufacturing: Operations Strategies, Performance And Environmental Effects

This paper investigates the competitive and environmental effects of different operations strategies of original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) and semi-independent remanufacturers, which simultaneously cooperate and compete in different stages of a closed-loop supply chain. In particular, a co-opetitive situation, in which remanufacturing is undertaken only by retailers while the OEMs' role is restricted to recycling is considered. After adopting a resource-based perspective of competition, investigations are accomplished using system dynamics simulation modelling. The results of simulations indicate that, in the long run, OEMs, regardless of the operation strategy they adopt, are unable to (re)capture the market gained by the remanufacturers. However, some of these strategies contribute to the improvement of the environmental performance of the entire supply chain

A retroductive systems-based methodology for socio-technical transitions research

Socio-technical system transitions research describes and categorizes transitions and explains and identifies their driving causes. In the literature, transition research frameworks have received some critique on whether they can facilitate the search for transition causes. As a response, and in order to cater for the complexity and contextuality of multi system transitions, this paper proposes a retroductive systems-based methodology. The methodology relies on qualitative case study development and quantitative simulation modelling. Retroduction along with modelling and simulation can contribute to the shift from researching single system/technology transitions to multi system/technology transitions. Thus the paper offers a step towards coping methodologically with sustainability transitions that often concern multi system interactions. We demonstrate the use of the methodology by adopting the Multi-Level Perspective on transitions to explain the emergence of the functional foods as a niche in the food/nutrition socio-technical system

Process perspective on home retrofitting decisions: a qualitative metasynthesis

The promotion of low-carbon home retrofitting among homeowners is widely recognised as an important strategy to reduce operational energy use in dwellings and mitigate climate change. Building research and policy have traditionally treated the decisions that homeowners make with regard to low-carbon retrofit as isolated events[1]. Nevertheless, research on domestic retrofit shows that retrofit decisions are often spread over lengthy periods of time[2]. Driven by evidence on the temporal nature of retrofit decisions, this study adopts a process research strategy[3] to review and produce a metasynthesis of evidence for homeowner retrofitting decisions available in the literature

Household electricity consumption and CO2 emissions in the Netherlands: A model-based analysis

Twenty percent of the total energy consumption in the Netherlands comes from household electricity consumption. This comes from household electric appliances whose number has grown in recent years. The paper explores the effect of smart meter introduction, appliance efficiency and consumer behaviour on reducing electricity consumption in the Netherlands. It does so by combining two perspectives: a sociotechnical approach and a bottom up simulation approach. The range of scenarios explored through simulation in the paper provides an understanding of the interplay between efficiency, smart meter diffusion and consumer behaviour. The results show their effect on electricity consumption and suggest that further effort is required to control and reduce it. Insights from the paper suggest that future studies should disaggregate with respect to a number of factors

System interactions in socio-technical transitions: Extending the multi-level perspective

This paper discusses contextual issues in sociotechnical systems and transitions under the Multi Level Perspective (MLP). It emphasises inter system interactions, for which a typology is developed drawing on a review and meta level analysis of published transition case studies. The typology is subsequently associated to the MLP transitions pathways. A novel transition pathway, is derived through this process, namely new system emergence, for systems that emerge from contributions of existing antecedent sociotechnical systems

Process perspective on homeowner energy retrofits: A qualitative metasynthesis

EU policy recognises the importance of encouraging low-carbon retrofit among homeowners to reduce operational energy use in dwellings and mitigate climate change. Building research and policy has traditionally focused on the identification of retrofit drivers and barriers, to strengthen the former and reduce the later. However valuable the static juxtaposition of drivers and barriers may be, it cannot capture their temporal dynamics during a retrofit process. Recent research emphasises repeatedly that retrofits should be understood as dynamic processes that unfold over extended periods of time. This paper presents a metasynthesis of qualitative case studies on energy retrofit in single-family owner-occupied dwellings. A process perspective is used to capture the dynamics between socio-technical aspects of the built environment that shape retrofit depth and energy use post-retrofit. Metasynthesis results show that: (i) pre-existing homeowner knowledge about energy retrofit plays a significant role on the depth of a technological solution achieved during the retrofit; (ii) the actual energy use post-retrofit depends on the extent of owners’ involvement in the development of their retrofit design solutions. These findings have important implications for EU energy policy uptake to support household transition to low-carbon living

Analytical sociology for sociotechnical transition research: Bridging case study and system dynamics

This paper is motivated by the development in analytical sociology and sociotechnical transition research. This paper explores the potential for cross fertilization between the two that can improve current, transition research methodological practice, and provide a response to a number of criticisms on the Multi-Level Perspective on transition research. The paper proposes a retroductive transition research methodology to identify and test social mechanisms for their explanatory power in transition case studies. The methodology consists in the joint use of transition case study and system dynamics modeling and simulation. The paper discusses how the two methods are used iteratively, and how each one complements the strengths and counters the weaknesses of the other. The methodology has particular strengths and implications for the agenda of issues that research on future transitions to sustainability faces currently. It highlights the central role system dynamics can potentially play in sociotechnical transition research and community