Discounting the distant future: How much does model selection affect the certainty equivalent rate?

Evaluating investments with long-term consequences using discount rates that decline with the time horizon, (Declining Discount Rates or DDRs) means that future welfare changes are of greater consequence in present value terms. Recent work in this area has turned towards operationalising the theory and establishing a schedule of DDRs for use in cost benefit analysis. Using US data we make the following points concerning this transition: i) model selection has important implications for operationalising a theory of DDRs that depends upon uncertainty; ii) misspecification testing naturally leads to employing models that account for changes in the interest rate generating mechanism. Lastly, we provide an analysis of the policy implications of DDRs in the context of climate change for the US and show that the use of a state space model can increase valuations by 150% compared to conventional constant discounting.long-run discounting, interest rate forecasting,interest rate forecasting, state-space models,regime-switching models, climate change policy

Declining Discount Rates: Evidence from the UK

We estimate schedules of declining discount rates for cost benefit analysis in the UK. We highlight the importance of model selection for this task and hence for the evaluation of long-term investments, namely climate change prevention and nuclear build.long-run discounting, state-space models,regime-switching models, climate change policy,nuclear build

A biomarker panel (Bioscore) incorporating monocytic surface and soluble TREM-1 has high discriminative value for ventilator-associated pneumonia: a prospective observational study

Ventilator-associated pneumonia (VAP) increases mortality in critical illness. However, clinical diagnostic uncertainty persists. We hypothesised that measuring cell-surface and soluble inflammatory markers, incorporating Triggering Receptor Expressed by Myeloid cells (TREM)-1, would improve diagnostic accuracy.A single centre prospective observational study, set in a University Hospital medical-surgical intensive Care unit, recruited 91 patients into 3 groups: 27 patients with VAP, 33 ventilated controls without evidence of pulmonary sepsis (non-VAP), and 31 non-ventilated controls (NVC), without clinical infection, attending for bronchoscopy. Paired samples of Bronchiolo-alveolar lavage fluid (BALF) and blood from each subject were analysed for putative biomarkers of infection: Cellular (TREM-1, CD11b and CD62L) and soluble (IL-1β, IL-6, IL-8, sTREM-1, Procalcitonin). Expression of cellular markers on monocytes and neutrophils were measured by flow cytometry. Soluble inflammatory markers were determined by ELISA. A biomarker panel ('Bioscore'), was constructed, tested and validated, using Fisher's discriminant function analysis, to assess its value in distinguishing VAP from non VAP.The expression of TREM-1 on monocytes (mTREM-1) and neutrophils (nTREM-1) and concentrations of IL-1β, IL-8, and sTREM-1 in BALF were significantly higher in VAP compared with non-VAP and NVC (p<0.001). The BALF/blood mTREM-1 was significantly higher in VAP patients compared to non-VAP and NVC (0.8 v 0.4 v 0.3 p<0.001). A seven marker Bioscore (BALF/blood ratio mTREM-1 and mCD11b, BALF sTREM-1, IL-8 and IL-1β, and serum CRP and IL-6) correctly identified 88.9% of VAP cases and 100% of non-VAP cases.A 7-marker bioscore, incorporating cellular and soluble TREM-1, accurately discriminates VAP from non-pulmonary infection

Structured evaluation of virtual environments for special-needs education

This paper describes the development of a structured approach to evaluate experiential and communication virtual learning environments (VLEs) designed specifically for use in the education of children with severe learning difficulties at the Shepherd special needs school in Nottingham, UK. Constructivist learning theory was used as a basis for the production of an evaluation framework, used to evaluate the design of three VLEs and how they were used by students with respect to this learning theory. From an observational field study of student-teacher pairs using the VLEs, 18 behaviour categories were identified as relevant to five of the seven constructivist principles defined by Jonassen (1994). Analysis of student-teacher behaviour was used to provide support for, or against, the constructivist principles. The results show that the three VLEs meet the constructivist principles in very different ways and recommendations for design modifications are put forward

A novel microfluidic point-of-care biosensor system on printed circuit board for cytokine detection

Point of Care (PoC) diagnostics have been the subject of considerable research over the last few decades driven by the pressure to detect diseases quickly and effectively and reduce healthcare costs. Herein, we demonstrate a novel, fully integrated, microfluidic amperometric enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) prototype using a commercial interferon gamma release assay (IGRA) as a model antibody binding system. Microfluidic assay chemistry was engineered to take place on Au-plated electrodes within an assay cell on a printed circuit board (PCB)-based biosensor system. The assay cell is linked to an electrochemical reporter cell comprising microfluidic architecture, Au working and counter electrodes and a Ag/AgCl reference electrode, all manufactured exclusively via standard commercial PCB fabrication processes. Assay chemistry has been optimised for microfluidic diffusion kinetics to function under continual flow. We characterised the electrode integrity of the developed platforms with reference to biological sampling and buffer composition and subsequently we demonstrated concentration-dependent measurements of H2O2 depletion as resolved by existing FDA-validated ELISA kits. Finally, we validated the assay technology in both buffer and serum and demonstrate limits of detection comparable to high-end commercial systems with the addition of full microfluidic assay architecture capable of returning diagnostic analyses in approximately eight minutes

A Novel Microfluidic Point-of-Care Biosensor System on Printed Circuit Board for Cytokine Detection

Point of Care (PoC) diagnostics have been the subject of considerable research over the last few decades driven by the pressure to detect diseases quickly and effectively and reduce healthcare costs. Herein, we demonstrate a novel, fully integrated, microfluidic amperometric enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) prototype using a commercial interferon gamma release assay (IGRA) as a model antibody binding system. Microfluidic assay chemistry was engineered to take place on Au-plated electrodes within an assay cell on a printed circuit board (PCB)-based biosensor system. The assay cell is linked to an electrochemical reporter cell comprising microfluidic architecture, Au working and counter electrodes and a Ag/AgCl reference electrode, all manufactured exclusively via standard commercial PCB fabrication processes. Assay chemistry has been optimised for microfluidic diffusion kinetics to function under continual flow. We characterised the electrode integrity of the developed platforms with reference to biological sampling and buffer composition and subsequently we demonstrated concentration-dependent measurements of H₂O₂ depletion as resolved by existing FDA-validated ELISA kits. Finally, we validated the assay technology in both buffer and serum and demonstrate limits of detection comparable to high-end commercial systems with the addition of full microfluidic assay architecture capable of returning diagnostic analyses in approximately eight minutes

An Assay System for Point-of-Care Diagnosis of Tuberculosis using Commercially Manufactured PCB Technology

Rapid advances in clinical technologies, detection sensitivity and analytical throughput have delivered a significant expansion in our knowledge of prognostic and diagnostic biomarkers in many common infectious diseases, such as Tuberculosis (TB). During the last decade, a significant number of approaches to TB diagnosis have been attempted at Point-of-Care (PoC), exploiting a large variation of techniques and materials. In this work, we describe an electronics-based Enzyme-Linked ImmunoSorbent Assay (eELISA), using a Lab-on-a-Printed Circuit Board (LoPCB) approach, for TB diagnosis based on cytokine detection. The test relies upon an electrochemical (amperometric) assay, comprising a high-precision bioinstrumentation board and amperometric sensors, produced exclusively using standard PCB manufacturing processes. Electrochemical detection uses standard Au and Ag electrodes together with a bespoke, low-power, multichannel, portable data-acquisition system. We demonstrate high-performance assay chemistry performed at microfluidic volumes on Au pads directly at the PCB surface with improved limit of detection (~10 pg/mL) over standard colorimetric ELISA methods. The assay has also been implemented in plasma, showing the utility of the system for medical applications. This work is a significant step towards the development of a low-cost, portable, high-precision diagnostic and monitoring technology, which once combined with appropriate PCB-based microfluidic networks will provide complete LoPCB platforms