Early Information on Active Cases in Zero Rejection Efforts for COVID-19 Patients in West Java Province 2021 Using the Feedforwards Multilayer Perceptron Neural Network

West Java noted, as of August 14, 2021, 653,741 people were confirmed positive for COVID-19. On the same date, the number of active COVID-19 cases in West Java was 65,000. There is a significant increase in active cases of COVID-19 in 2021 in West Java. In the period 5 June – 17 July 2021, there was an increase in the number of active cases by 95,532. In that period, active cases increased by 484%, and the Bed Occupancy Ratio (BOR) in West Java had jumped in June 2021 with the highest number of 91.6%, this figure far exceeded the WHO recommendation of 60% before finally continuing to decline and finally in August was at 30.69%. This has an impact on the incidence of patient rejection at the COVID-19 referral hospital. Active cases talk about COVID-19 patients who need medical treatment and new cases talk about the rate of spread of COVID-19 in West Java, so these two things are very strategic to study. In this study, active cases and new case were predicted using Multilayer Perceptron (MLP). The data used in this study were sourced from the COVID-19 Task Force. The data is the number of positive cases, recovered and died of COVID-19 sufferers in 34 provinces in Indonesia in the period 2 March 2020 - 14 August 2021. The results of the study found, from the results of the evaluation using data testing the number of active cases in the last 19 weeks, namely April 10 – August 14, 2021, MLP is accurate in predicting the number of active cases for the first coming week 17 times, and the next two weeks for the second week 12 times with an absolute percentage error (APE) < 20%. As for weekly new cases, MLP has been accurate 10 times for the next one week and 9 times for the next two weeks. It is hoped that the results of this study can be useful for the government as a reference in conditioning the hospital bed capacity to deal with active cases of COVID-19 in West Java in the next two weeks so that no COVID-19 patients are rejected by the hospital because the hospital is full

Evaluation of the Effectiveness of Community Activities Restriction in Containing the Spread of COVID-19 in West Java, Indonesia Using Time-Series Clustering

The purpose of this research is to classify time-series data on the number of daily COVID-19 cases based on the dynamics. This research aims to evaluate the effectiveness of community activity restrictions in suppressing the number of new cases of COVID-19 in cities and regencies in West Java. We performed time-series clustering on daily positive case data for COVID-19 in 27 cities and regencies in West Java Province, Indonesia for this study. The k-medoids clustering algorithm was used for clustering, with shape-based lock step measures, specifically, the cross correlation-based distance. We used daily new infected cases data for COVID-19 in 27 cities and regencies in West Java Province during the worst situation. We used data from 1 July 2021 to 31 September 2021 and from 1 January 2022 to 31 May 2022, during the Emergency Community Activity Restriction period (PPKM). According to our findings, the optimal number of clusters that could be formed from the data we had was 4 clusters for the first period and 2 clusters for the second period, with silhouette value of 0.2633 and 0.6363, respectively. For the first period, we discovered that PPKM was successful in clusters 1 and 2, namely in 25 cities/districts in West Java, except for Bogor and Depok, while for the second period, we found PPKM to be effective in reducing the number of COVID-19 cases throughout cities and regencies in West Java. This shows there is an improvement from the implementation of PPKM in the first period. We also found that the cluster that was formed was not only influenced by the effectiveness of the PPKM, but also by geography. The closer a city is to a hotspot region for the spread of COVID-19, the earlier the increase in the number of new COVID-19 cases will occur

Evaluation of the Effectiveness of Community Activities Restriction in Containing the Spread of COVID-19 in West Java, Indonesia Using Time-Series Clustering

The purpose of this research is to classify time-series data on the number of daily COVID-19 cases based on the dynamics. This research aims to evaluate the effectiveness of community activity restrictions in suppressing the number of new cases of COVID-19 in cities and regencies in West Java. We performed time-series clustering on daily positive case data for COVID-19 in 27 cities and regencies in West Java Province, Indonesia for this study. The k-medoids clustering algorithm was used for clustering, with shape-based lock step measures, specifically, the cross correlation-based distance. We used daily new infected cases data for COVID-19 in 27 cities and regencies in West Java Province during the worst situation. We used data from 1 July 2021 to 31 September 2021 and from 1 January 2022 to 31 May 2022, during the Emergency Community Activity Restriction period (PPKM). According to our findings, the optimal number of clusters that could be formed from the data we had was 4 clusters for the first period and 2 clusters for the second period, with silhouette value of 0.2633 and 0.6363, respectively. For the first period, we discovered that PPKM was successful in clusters 1 and 2, namely in 25 cities/districts in West Java, except for Bogor and Depok, while for the second period, we found PPKM to be effective in reducing the number of COVID-19 cases throughout cities and regencies in West Java. This shows there is an improvement from the implementation of PPKM in the first period. We also found that the cluster that was formed was not only influenced by the effectiveness of the PPKM, but also by geography. The closer a city is to a hotspot region for the spread of COVID-19, the earlier the increase in the number of new COVID-19 cases will occur