9,162 research outputs found
The SIS epidemic model with Markovian switching
Population systems are often subject to environmental noise. Motivated by Takeuchi et al. (2006), we will discuss in this paper the effect of telegraph noise on the well-known SIS epidemic model. We establish the explicit solution of the stochastic SIS epidemic model, which is useful in performing computer simulations. We also establish the conditions for extinction and persistence for the stochastic SIS epidemic model and compare these with the corresponding conditions for the deterministic SIS epidemic model. We first prove these results for a two-state Markov chain and then generalise them to a finite state space Markov chain. Computer simulations based on the explicit solution and the Euler--Maruyama scheme are performed to illustrate our theory. We include a more realistic example using appropriate parameter values for the spread of Streptococcus pneumoniae in children
Parameter estimation for the stochastic SIS epidemic model
In this paper we estimate the parameters in the stochastic SIS epidemic model by using pseudo-maximum likelihood estimation (pseudo-MLE) and least squares estimation. We obtain the point estimators and 100(1 ā Ī±)% confidence intervals as well as 100(1 ā Ī±)% joint confidence regions by applying least squares techniques. The pseudo-MLEs have almost the same form as the least squares case. We also obtain the exact as well as the asymptotic 100(1 ā Ī±)% joint confidence regions for the pseudo-MLEs. Computer simulations are performed to illustrate our theory
Tetrahedrally coordinated carbonates in Earth's lower mantle
Carbonates are the main species that bring carbon deep into our planet
through subduction. They are an important rock-forming mineral group,
fundamentally distinct from silicates in Earth's crust in that carbon binds to
three oxygen atoms, while silicon is bonded to four oxygens. Here, we present
experimental evidence that under the sufficiently high pressures and high
temperatures existing in the lower mantle, ferromagnesian carbonates transform
to a phase with tetrahedrally coordinated carbons. Above 80 GPa, in situ
synchrotron infrared experiments show the unequivocal spectroscopic signature
of the high-pressure phase of (Mg,Fe)CO. Using ab-initio calculations, we
assign the new IR signature to C-O bands associated with tetrahedrally
coordinated carbon with asymmetric C-O bonds. Tetrahedrally coordinated
carbonates are expected to exhibit substantially different reactivity than low
pressure three-fold coordinated carbonates, as well as different chemical
properties in the liquid state. Hence this may have significant implications on
carbon reservoirs and fluxes and the global geodynamic carbon cycle
Constructing the cultural repertoire in a natural disaster: The role of social media in the Thailand flood of 2011
In 2011, Thailand witnessed its worst flooding catastrophe in half a century. In this study, we explored social media as a new and promising weapon to address the physical and morale challenges caused by the natural disaster. A case study was conducted in the context of crisis response, whichinvestigated the use of social media to contribute to the collective cultural repertoire during the natural disaster. By investigating two paths toward the cultural repertoire construction considering different social groups, this study also identified the roles of social media as an information market and an information threshold in the crisis response
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