Towards a unified theory of procurement contract design : production flexibility, spot market trading, and contract structure

Thesis (Ph. D.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Sloan School of Management, Operations Research Center, 2008.Includes bibliographical references (p. 115-116).We present in this work a unified approach and provide the optimal solution to the pricing problem of option contracts for a supplier of an industrial good in the presence of spot trading. Specifically, our approach fully and jointly endogenizes the determination of three major characteristics in contract design, namely (i) Sales contracts versus options contracts; (ii) Flat fee versus volume- dependent contracts; and (iii) Volume discounts versus volume premia; combining them together with spot market trading decisions and also the option of delaying production for the seller. We build a model where a supplier of an industrial good transacts with a manufacturer who uses the supplier's product to produce an end good with an uncertain demand. We derive the general non-linear pricing solution for the contracts under information asymmetry of the buyer's production flexibility. We show that confirming industry observations, volume-dependent optimal sales contracts always demonstrate volume discounts (i.e., involve concave pricing). On the other hand the options contracts are more complex agreements, and optimal contracts for them can involve both volume discounts and volume premia. Further, we find that in the optimal contracts, there are three major pricing regimes. First, if the seller has a higher discount rate than the buyer and the production costs are lower than a critical threshold value, the optimal contract is a flat fee sales contract. Second, when the seller is less patient than the buyer but production costs are higher than the critical threshold, the optimal contract is a sales contract with volume discounts. Third, if the buyer has a higher discount rate than the seller, then the optimal contract is a volume-dependent options contract and can involve both volume discounts and volume premia. We further provide links between industry and spot market characteristics, contract characteristics and efficiency. Last, we look into an extension of our basic model, where we give an analysis for the case when the seller is given a last minute production option.by Pamela Pen-Erh Pei.Ph.D

Sourcing Flexibility, Spot Trading, and Procurement Contract Structure

We analyze the structure and pricing of option contracts for an industrial good in the presence of spot trading. We combine the analysis of spot trading and buyers' disparate private valuations for different suppliers' products, and we jointly endogenize the determination of three major dimensions in contract design: (i) sales contracts versus options contracts, (ii) flat-price versus volume-dependent contracts, and (iii) volume discounts versus volume premia. We build a model in which a supplier of an industrial good transacts with a manufacturer who uses the supplier's product to produce an end good with an uncertain demand. We show that, consistent with industry observations, volume-dependent optimal sales contracts always demonstrate volume discounts (i.e., involve concave pricing). However, options are more complex agreements, and optimal option contracts can involve both volume discounts and volume premia. Three major contract structures commonly emerge in optimality. First, if the seller has a high discount rate relative to the buyer and the seller's production costs or the production capacity is low, the optimal contracts tend to be flat-price sales contracts. Second, when the seller has a relatively high discount rate compared to the buyer but production costs or production capacity are high, the optimal contracts are sales contracts with volume discounts. Third, if the buyer's discount rate is high relative to the seller's, then the optimal contracts tend to be volume-dependent options contracts and can involve both volume discounts and volume premia. However, when the seller's production capacity is sufficiently low, it is possible to observe flat-price option contracts. Furthermore, we provide links between production and spot market characteristics, contract design, and efficiency.National Science Foundation (U.S.) (contract CMMI-0758069)National Science Foundation (U.S.) (contract DMI-0245352