External validation of multidimensional prognostic indices (ADO, BODEx and DOSE) in a primary care international cohort (PROEPOC/COPD cohort)

Background: Due to the heterogeneous and systemic nature of the chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), the new guidelines are oriented toward individualized attention. Multidimensional scales could facilitate its proper clinical and prognostic assessment, but not all of them were validated in an international primary care cohort, different from the original ones used for model development. Therefore, our main aim is to assess the prognostic capacity of the ADO, BODEx and DOSE indices in primary care for predicting mortality in COPD patients and to validate the models obtained in subgroups of patients, classified by revised Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease (2011) and updated Spanish Guideline (2014). Besides, we want to confirm that the prognostic capacity of all indices increases if the number of exacerbations is substituted by the interval between them and to assess the impact on health of the patient''s lifestyle, social network and adherence to treatment. Methods: Design: External validation of scales, open and prospective cohort study in primary care. Setting: 36 health centres in 6 European high, medium and low income countries. Subjects: 477 patients diagnosed with COPD, captured in clinical visit by their General Practitioner/Nurse. Predictors: Detailed patient history, exacerbations, lung function test and questionnaires at baseline. Outcomes: Exacerbations, all-cause mortality and specific mortality, within 5 years of recruitment. Analysis: Multivariate logistic regression and Cox regression will be used. Possible non-linear effect of the indices will be studied by using Structured Additive Regression models with penalised splines. Subsequently, we will assess different aspects of the regression models: discrimination, calibration and diagnostic precision. Clinical variables modulated in primary care and the interval between exacerbations will be considered and incorporated into the analysis. Discussion: The Research Agenda for General Practice/Family Medicine highlights that the evidence on predictive values of prognostic indices in primary care is scarce. A prospective cohort like that of PROEPOC/COPD provides good opportunities for research into COPD and make communication easier between family practitioners, nursing staff, pneumologists and other professionals, supporting a multi-disciplinary approach to the treatment of these patients. Trial registration:ISRCTN52402811. Date: 15/01/2015. Prospectively registered

Safety of hospital discharge before return of bowel function after elective colorectal surgery

© 2020 BJS Society Ltd Published by John Wiley & Sons LtdBackground: Ileus is common after colorectal surgery and is associated with an increased risk of postoperative complications. Identifying features of normal bowel recovery and the appropriateness for hospital discharge is challenging. This study explored the safety of hospital discharge before the return of bowel function. Methods: A prospective, multicentre cohort study was undertaken across an international collaborative network. Adult patients undergoing elective colorectal resection between January and April 2018 were included. The main outcome of interest was readmission to hospital within 30 days of surgery. The impact of discharge timing according to the return of bowel function was explored using multivariable regression analysis. Other outcomes were postoperative complications within 30 days of surgery, measured using the Clavien–Dindo classification system. Results: A total of 3288 patients were included in the analysis, of whom 301 (9·2 per cent) were discharged before the return of bowel function. The median duration of hospital stay for patients discharged before and after return of bowel function was 5 (i.q.r. 4–7) and 7 (6–8) days respectively (P < 0·001). There were no significant differences in rates of readmission between these groups (6·6 versus 8·0 per cent; P = 0·499), and this remained the case after multivariable adjustment for baseline differences (odds ratio 0·90, 95 per cent c.i. 0·55 to 1·46; P = 0·659). Rates of postoperative complications were also similar in those discharged before versus after return of bowel function (minor: 34·7 versus 39·5 per cent; major 3·3 versus 3·4 per cent; P = 0·110). Conclusion: Discharge before return of bowel function after elective colorectal surgery appears to be safe in appropriately selected patients