On the inconsistency of the Breusch-Pagan test

The Breusch-Pagan Lagrange Multiplier test for heteroskedascity is supposedly able to detect heteroskedasticity which is an arbitrary function of some set of regressors. We will show that in fact it detects only linear functions. The test is inconsistent for general alternatives, in the sense that its power does not go to 1 as the sample size increases (and in fact, can be arbitrarily low). Since in fact the Breusch-Pagan test is essentially an F test in a special model, we also give necessary and sufficient conditions for the consistency of the F test under misspecification.heteroskedasticity; Breusch-Pagan test; test consistency; F test

The Politics of Faith in the Work of Lorna Dee Cervantes, Ana Castillo, and Sandra Cisneros

If Chicanas are perceived as a communal threat because they are closer to the carnal, according to the Church, they paradoxically are worshipped as the female divine within indigenous practices like Yoruba or Mexica as well. In the works of Sandra Cisneros, Ana Castillo, and Lorna Dee Cervantes women\u27s religious commitment is revealed through their possible responses to cultural multiplicity: 1) the rejection of one tradition over another, 2) syncretism, or 3) the continual migration between practices despite contradictory impulses. Using irony to address the tension and seeming impossibility of maintaining distinct traditions simultaneously, these writers intimate how women derive strength and a stronger sense of self primarily by moving between traditions

Sacred sites, contested rites/rights: contemporary pagan engagements with the past

Our Sacred Sites, Contested Rites/Rights project (www.sacredsites.org.uk) examines physical, spiritual and interpretative engagements of today’s Pagans with sacred sites, theorises ‘sacredness’, and explores the implications of pagan engagements with sites for heritage management and archaeology more generally, in terms of ‘preservation ethic’ vis a vis active engagement. In this paper, we explore ways in which ‘sacred sites’ --- both the term and the sites --- are negotiated by different interest groups, foregrounding our locations, as an archaeologist/art historian (Wallis) and anthropologist (Blain), and active pagan engagers with sites. Examples of pagan actions at such sites, including at Avebury and Stonehenge, demonstrate not only that their engagements with sacred sites are diverse and that identities --- such as that of ‘new indigenes’ --- arising therefrom are complex, but also that heritage management has not entirely neglected the issues: in addition to managed open access solstice celebrations at Stonehenge, a climate of inclusivity and multivocality has resulted in fruitful negotiations at the Rollright Stones.</p

The Duality of Unca\u27s Identity: The Use of the Idol in Colonial and Religious Subjugation

The Female American follows the life of Unca Winkfield, the product of a bi-racial marriage in eighteenth-century America. Unca’s hybridity creates tension within the novel as she seems to alternate between a predominantly Christian worldview and a pagan one. Throughout the first part of the novel, Unca displays Christian values, praying after she is abandoned on an island. However, as she spends more time there, she begins to act like a pagan, using an abandoned oracle to communicate with the natives. Most scholars believe that Unca changes her beliefs in order to utilize whichever heritage is most beneficial at the time. I argue, however, that she must enact both of these lineages at once because together they compose her individuality. Through Unca’s initial use of the island’s pagan statue, readers see how she employs both of her heritages simultaneously: she preaches Christianity by speaking through a pagan idol. Later, she utilizes the idol to scare the Europeans with whom she is actually trying to reconnect. In my analysis of these scenes, I argue that, while one side of Unca’s dual identity may possess control in certain environments, the other is always present. The subordinated worldview may recede but it cannot go away without being subjugated by a powerful outside force. When viewed in this light, Unca’s subjugation at the end of the novel can be understood as a function of a new colonial encounter that strips Unca of her individuality, placing her within the European domestic structure once more

A Viking burial at Balnakeil, Sutherland

A full discussion of a young Viking male pagan grave with full consideration of its context and broader significance in the context of the Norse in the British Isles

Can Turkish Recessions Be Predicted?

There is much scepticism about the ability to predict recessions. Harding and Pagan (2010b)have argued that this is because the definition of a recession involves the signs of future growth rates of economic activity and there is little predictability of these from the past. Turkey represents an interesting case study since growth in Turkish GDP features quite high serial correlation, suggesting that growth itself is predictable. Thus I want to examine whether it is possible to predict recessions in Turkey. As there seems only a small published literature on this it will be necessary to indicate what definition of recession is to be used and what information might be available to make a prediction of such an event. We found that using information from past macroeconomic variables would result in only limited success in predicting Turkish recessions.Conditional CAPM

Weak Instruments: A Guide to the Literature

Weak instruments have become an issue in many contexts in which econometric methods have been used. Some progress has been made into how one diagnoses the problem and how one makes an allowance for it. The present paper gives a partial survey of this literature, focussing upon some of the major contributions and trying to provide a relatively simple exposition of the proposed solutions.

Can Turkish Recessions be Predicted?

In response to the widespread criticism that macro-economists failed to predict the global recession coming from the GFC, we look at whether recessions in Turkey can be predicted. Because the growth in Turkish GDP is quite persistent one might expect this is possible. But it is the sign of GDP growth that needs to be forecast if we are to predict a recession, and this is made more difficult by the persistence in GDP growth. We build a small SVAR model of the Turkish economy that is motivated by New Keynesian models of the open economy, and find that using the variables entering it increases predictive success, although it is still the case that the predictive record is not good. Non-linear models for Turkish growth are then found to add little to predictive ability. Fundamentally, recession prediction requires one to forecast future shocks to the economy, and thus one needs some indicators of these. The paper explores a range of indicators for the Turkish economy, but none are particularly advantageous. Developing a bigger range of these indicators should be a priority for future Turkish macro-economic research.Business cycles, binary models, predicting recessions

From respect to reburial: negotiating pagan interest in prehistoric human remains in Britain, through the Avebury consultation

The recent Avebury Consultation on reburial has drawn considerable public and professional attention to the issue of pagan calls for respect towards the care of human remains. Our work has pointed to the importance of archaeologists and others engaging seriously and respectfully with pagans as significant stakeholders in our heritage. The Avebury Reburial Consultation suggests this dialogue is increasing in strength, but we identify problems in the process. We focus here on approaches to the prehistoric dead and worldviews enabling communication from which calls or ‘claims’ for the reburial of prehistoric pagan human remains, versus their retention for scientific study, are articulated; frameworks for assessing and adjudicating such ‘claims’; and implications for the interest groups concerned. We argue that room must be made for philosophical debate and the emotional and spiritual views of pagans, in order to improve dialogue, develop common ground, and enable participatory decision-making and situational pragmatism