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Global, regional, and national burden of rheumatoid arthritis, 1990–2020, and projections to 2050: a systematic analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021
Background
Rheumatoid arthritis is a chronic autoimmune inflammatory disease associated with disability and premature death. Up-to-date estimates of the burden of rheumatoid arthritis are required for health-care planning, resource allocation, and prevention. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021, we provide updated estimates of the prevalence of rheumatoid arthritis and its associated deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) by age, sex, year, and location, with forecasted prevalence to 2050.
Methods
Rheumatoid arthritis prevalence was estimated in 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2020 using Bayesian meta-regression models and data from population-based studies and medical claims data (98 prevalence and 25 incidence studies). Mortality was estimated from vital registration data with the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm). Years of life lost (YLL) were calculated with use of standard GBD lifetables, and years lived with disability (YLDs) were estimated from prevalence, a meta-analysed distribution of rheumatoid arthritis severity, and disability weights. DALYs were calculated by summing YLLs and YLDs. Smoking was the only risk factor analysed. Rheumatoid arthritis prevalence was forecast to 2050 by logistic regression with Socio-Demographic Index as a predictor, then multiplying by projected population estimates.
Findings
In 2020, an estimated 17·6 million (95% uncertainty interval 15·8–20·3) people had rheumatoid arthritis worldwide. The age-standardised global prevalence rate was 208·8 cases (186·8–241·1) per 100 000 population, representing a 14·1% (12·7–15·4) increase since 1990. Prevalence was higher in females (age-standardised female-to-male prevalence ratio 2·45 [2·40–2·47]). The age-standardised death rate was 0·47 (0·41–0·54) per 100 000 population (38 300 global deaths [33 500–44 000]), a 23·8% (17·5–29·3) decrease from 1990 to 2020. The 2020 DALY count was 3 060 000 (2 320 000–3 860 000), with an age-standardised DALY rate of 36·4 (27·6–45·9) per 100 000 population. YLDs accounted for 76·4% (68·3–81·0) of DALYs. Smoking risk attribution for rheumatoid arthritis DALYs was 7·1% (3·6–10·3). We forecast that 31·7 million (25·8–39·0) individuals will be living with rheumatoid arthritis worldwide by 2050.
Interpretation
Rheumatoid arthritis mortality has decreased globally over the past three decades. Global age-standardised prevalence rate and YLDs have increased over the same period, and the number of cases is projected to continue to increase to the year 2050. Improved access to early diagnosis and treatment of rheumatoid arthritis globally is required to reduce the future burden of the disease.
Funding
Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Institute of Bone and Joint Research, and Global Alliance for Musculoskeletal Health
Enoxaparin followed by once-weekly idrabiotaparinux versus enoxaparin plus warfarin for patients with acute symptomatic pulmonary embolism: a randomised, double-blind, double-dummy, non-inferiority trial
BACKGROUND:
Treatment of pulmonary embolism with low-molecular-weight heparin and vitamin K antagonists, such as warfarin, is not ideal. We aimed to assess non-inferiority of idrabiotaparinux, a reversible longlasting indirect inhibitor of activated factor X, to warfarin in patients with acute symptomatic pulmonary embolism.
METHODS:
In our randomised, double-blind, double-dummy, non-inferiority trial, we enrolled adults with objectively documented acute symptomatic pulmonary embolism attending 291 centres in 37 countries. We excluded patients who were pregnant, had active bleeding, kidney failure, or malignant hypertension, or were at high risk of death, bleeding, or adverse reactions to study drugs. We randomly allocated patients to receive 5-10 days' enoxaparin 1\ub70 mg/kg twice daily followed by subcutaneous idrabiotaparinux (starting dose 3\ub70 mg) or adjusted-dose warfarin (target international normalised ratio 2\ub70-3\ub70); regimens lasted 3 months or 6 months dependent on clinical presentation. Block randomisation was done with a central interactive computerised system, stratified by study centre and intended treatment duration. The primary efficacy outcome was recurrent venous thromboembolism at 99 days after randomisation. We estimated the odds ratio and 95% CI with a Mantel-Haenzsel \u3c7(2) analysis (non-inferiority margin 2\ub70) in the intention-to-treat population. The main safety outcome was clinically relevant bleeding (major or non-major) in all patients at day 99. This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT00345618.
FINDINGS:
Between Aug 1, 2006, and Jan 31, 2010, we enrolled 3202 patients aged 18-96 years. 34 (2%) of 1599 patients randomly allocated to receive enoxaparin-idrabiotaparinux and 43 (3%) of 1603 patients randomly allocated to receive enoxaparin-warfarin had recurrent venous thromboembolism (odds ratio 0\ub779, 95% CI 0\ub750-1\ub725; p(non-inferiority)=0\ub70001). 72 (5%) of 1599 patients in the enoxaparin-idrabiotaparinux group and 106 (7%) of 1603 patients in the enoxaparin-warfarin group had clinically relevant bleeding (0\ub767, 0\ub749-0\ub791; p(superiority)=0\ub70098). We noted similar differences in outcomes in those patients treated to 6 months.
INTERPRETATION:
Idrabiotaparinux could provide an attractive alternative to warfarin for the long-term treatment of pulmonary embolism, and seems to be associated with reduced bleeding