Calculating Stage Duration Statistics in Multistage Diseases

Many human diseases are characterized by multiple stages of progression. While the typical sequence of disease progression can be identified, there may be large individual variations among patients. Identifying mean stage durations and their variations is critical for statistical hypothesis testing needed to determine if treatment is having a significant effect on the progression, or if a new therapy is showing a delay of progression through a multistage disease. In this paper we focus on two methods for extracting stage duration statistics from longitudinal datasets: an extension of the linear regression technique, and a counting algorithm. Both are non-iterative, non-parametric and computationally cheap methods, which makes them invaluable tools for studying the epidemiology of diseases, with a goal of identifying different patterns of progression by using bioinformatics methodologies. Here we show that the regression method performs well for calculating the mean stage durations under a wide variety of assumptions, however, its generalization to variance calculations fails under realistic assumptions about the data collection procedure. On the other hand, the counting method yields reliable estimations for both means and variances of stage durations. Applications to Alzheimer disease progression are discussed

Presymptomatic atrophy in autosomal dominant Alzheimer's disease: A serial MRI study

INTRODUCTION: Identifying at what point atrophy rates first change in Alzheimer's disease is important for informing design of presymptomatic trials. METHODS: Serial T1-weighed magnetic resonance imaging scans of 94 participants (28 noncarriers, 66 carriers) from the Dominantly Inherited Alzheimer Network were used to measure brain, ventricular, and hippocampal atrophy rates. For each structure, nonlinear mixed-effects models estimated the change-points when atrophy rates deviate from normal and the rates of change before and after this point. RESULTS: Atrophy increased after the change-point, which occurred 1-1.5 years (assuming a single step change in atrophy rate) or 3-8 years (assuming gradual acceleration of atrophy) before expected symptom onset. At expected symptom onset, estimated atrophy rates were at least 3.6 times than those before the change-point. DISCUSSION: Atrophy rates are pathologically increased up to seven years before "expected onset". During this period, atrophy rates may be useful for inclusion and tracking of disease progression