Firms’ Money Demand and Monetary Policy

Standard New Keynesian models for monetary policy analysis are "cashless". When the nominal interest rate is the central bank's operating instrument, the LM equation is endogenous and, it is argued, can be ignored. The modern theoretical and quantitative debate on the importance of money for the conduct of monetary policy, however, overlooks firms' money demand. Working in an otherwise baseline New Keynesian setup, this paper shows that the monetary policy transmission mechanism is critically affected by the firms' money demand choice. Specifically, we prove that equilibrium determinacy may require either an active interest-rate policy (i.e., overreacting to inflation) or a passive interest-rate policy (i.e., underreacting to inflation), depending on the elasticity of production with respect to real money balances. We then calibrate the model to U.S. quarterly data and develop a sensitivity analysis in order to investigate the quantitative implications of our theoretical results. We find that macroeconomic stability is more likely to be guaranteed under an active, although not overly aggressive, monetary-policy stance.Firms’ Money Demand; Interest-Rate Policy.

Inflation shocks and interest rate rules

Recent empirical evidence by Fair (2002, 2005) and Giordani (2003) shows that a positive inflation shock with the nominal interest rate held constant has contractionary effects. These results cannot be reconciled with the standard ‘New Synthesis' literature. This paper reconsiders the effects of inflation shocks in a simple New Keynesian framework extended to include wealth effects. It is shown that, following an inflation shock, the decline of output coupled with passive interest rate rules is not puzzling.Inflation Shocks

Fiscal Policy and Public Debt Dynamics in Italy

We examine the historical dynamics of government debt in Post-Unification Italy, from 1861 to 2009. Unit root tests for the debt-GDP ratio are unable to reject either the non stationarity or the stationarity null hypothesis. Controlling debt dynamics for fiscal feedback policies of the Barro-Bohn style, however, the debt-GDP ratio is found to be mean-reverting. Mean-reversion in the debt-GDP ratio is due not only to a nominal growth dividend, but also to a positive response of primary surpluses to variations in outstanding debt. There is indeed significant evidence that, over the history of Italy, fiscal policy makers have reacted to the accumulation of debt, taking corrective measures to rule out potential long-term sustainability problems.Fiscal Policy; Public Debt; Fiscal Sustainability.

Public Debt, Distortionary Taxation, and Monetary Policy

Since Leeper's (1991, Journal of Monetary Economics 27, 129-147) seminal paper, an extensive literature has argued that if fiscal policy is passive, that is, guarantees public debt stabilization irrespectively of the inflation path, monetary policy can independently be committed to inflation targeting. This can be pursued by following the Taylor principle, i.e., responding to upward perturbations in inflation with a more than one-for-one increase in the nominal interest rate. This paper considers an optimizing framework in which the government can only finance public expenditures by levying distortionary taxes. It is shown that households' participation constraints and Laffer-type effects may render passive fiscal policies unfeasible. For any given target inflation rate, there exists a threshold level of public debt beyond which monetary policy independence is no longer possible. In such circumstances, the dynamics of public debt can be controlled only by means of higher inflation tax revenues: inflation dynamics in line with the fiscal theory of the price level must take place in order for macroeconomic stability to be guaranteed. Otherwise, to preserve inflation control around the steady state by following the Taylor principle, monetary policy must target a higher inflation rate.Public Debt; Distortionary Taxation; Monetary and Fiscal Policy Rules.

Fiscal policy in a monetary economy with capital and finite lifetime

This paper develops a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with nominal rigidities, capital accumulation and finite lifetimes. The framework exhibits intergenerational wealth effects and is intended to investigate the macroeconomic implications of fiscal policy, which is specified by either a debt-based tax rule or a balanced-budget rule allowing for temporary deficits. When calibrated to euro area quarterly data, the model predicts that fiscal expansions generate a tradeoff in output dynamics between short-term gains and medium-term losses. It is also shown that the effects of fiscal shocks crucially depend upon the conduct of monetary policy. Simulation analysis suggests that balanced-budget requirements enhance the determinacy properties of feedback interest rate rules by guaranteeing inflation stabilization. JEL Classification: E52, E58, E63Capital Accumulation, Finite Lifetime, Fiscal Policy, monetary policy, nominal rigidities, Simulations

Budgetary Policies in a DSGE Model with Finite Horizons

This paper presents a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with nominal rigidities, capital accumulation and finite horizons. Our New Keynesian framework exhibits intergenerational wealth effects and is intended to investigate the macroeconomic implications of fiscal policy, which is specified by either a debt-based tax rule or a balanced-budget rule allowing for temporary deficits. When calibrated to euro area quarterly data, the model predicts that fiscal expansions generate a trade-off in output dynamics between short-term gains and medium-term losses. It is shown that the effects of fiscal shocks crucially depend upon the conduct of monetary policy. Simulation analysis suggests that balanced-budget requirements enhance the determinacy properties of feedback interest rate rules by guaranteeing inflation stabilization.Fiscal Policy; Monetary Policy; Nominal Rigidities; Capital Accumulation; Finite Lifetime; Simulations

Non-Linear Fiscal Regimes and Interest Rate Policy

Much empirical evidence finds that governments react to fiscal imbalances in a non-linear way, through an increasing marginal response of primary surpluses to changes in debt. This paper shows that non-linear fiscal regimes alter equilibria under active and passive monetary-fiscal policies. The Fisher equation combined with non-linear fiscal policies leads to multiple steady states. Under passive interest rate rules, even if the steady state at which fiscal policy is active is locally saddle-path stable, there exist infinite equilibrium paths originating in the neighborhood of that steady state which converge into a high-debt trap. Under active interest rate rules, even if the steady state at which fiscal policy is active is locally unstable, there exists a saddle connection with the high debt equilibrium along which inflation is uniquely determined

Average Inflation Targeting and Macroeconomic Stability

I study the dynamic consequences of average inflation targeting in a tractable monetary model with sticky prices. I demonstrate that in the case in which the central bank attaches a relatively high weight on the distant past, average inflation targeting not only ensures local determinacy of equilibrium but is also capable of eradicating the liquidity trap problem—differently from standard Taylor rules. Specifically, I show the existence of a saddle connection from the deflationary steady state to the target steady state, along which reflation occurs in equilibrium due to limited and gradual increases in expected nominal interest rates

External Debt and Stabilizing Macroeconomic Policies

This paper investigates the dynamic effects of fiscal and monetary feedback policy rules in a small open economy with flexible exchange rates and risk premia on external debt. It is shown that equilibrium uniqueness and stability occur under locally Ricardian fiscal policies regardless of the degree of reaction of nominal interest rates to inflation, in contrast with closed-economy environments. Fiscal revaluation mechanisms of the type predicted by the fiscal theory of the price level are precluded by international parity conditions. As a result, locally non-Ricardian fiscal policies are destabilizing even under an accommodating monetary policy stance