The rate of CD4 decline as a determinant of progression to AIDS independent of the most recent CD4 count

The data of two cohort studies of HIV-infected individuals were used to examine whether the rate of CD4 decline is a determinant of HIV progression, independent of the most recent CD4 count. Time from seroconversion to clinical AIDS was the main outcome measure. Rates of CD4 decline were estimated using the ordinary least squares regression method. AIDS incidences were compared in individuals who had previously experienced either a steeper or a less steep rate of CD4 decline. Cox proportional hazards model including a time-dependent covariate for the rate of CD4 decline was performed. The rate of prior CD4 decline was significantly associated with the risk of developing AIDS independently from the most recent CD4 count, with a 2 % increase in hazard of AIDS (P < 0.01) for a difference of 10 cells/mm(3) in the estimated yearly drop in CD4 count. This finding gives scientific credit to the belief that individuals with a prior steeper CD4 decline consistently have a higher subsequent risk of developing AIDS than those with a less steep prior decline

Approximated and User Steerable tSNE for Progressive Visual Analytics

Progressive Visual Analytics aims at improving the interactivity in existing analytics techniques by means of visualization as well as interaction with intermediate results. One key method for data analysis is dimensionality reduction, for example, to produce 2D embeddings that can be visualized and analyzed efficiently. t-Distributed Stochastic Neighbor Embedding (tSNE) is a well-suited technique for the visualization of several high-dimensional data. tSNE can create meaningful intermediate results but suffers from a slow initialization that constrains its application in Progressive Visual Analytics. We introduce a controllable tSNE approximation (A-tSNE), which trades off speed and accuracy, to enable interactive data exploration. We offer real-time visualization techniques, including a density-based solution and a Magic Lens to inspect the degree of approximation. With this feedback, the user can decide on local refinements and steer the approximation level during the analysis. We demonstrate our technique with several datasets, in a real-world research scenario and for the real-time analysis of high-dimensional streams to illustrate its effectiveness for interactive data analysis

Constraints on planetary tidal dissipation from a detailed study of Kepler 91b

Context. With the detection of thousands of exoplanets, characterising their dynamical evolution in detail represents a key step in the understanding of their formation. Studying the dissipation of tides occurring both in the host star and in the planets is of great relevance in order to investigate the distribution of the angular momentum occurring among the objects populating the system and to studying the evolution of the orbital parameters. From a theoretical point of view, the dissipation of tides throughout a body may be studied by relying on the so-called phase or time-lag equilibrium tides model in which the reduced tidal quality factor Q'p, or equivalently the product between the love number and the time lag (k2DeltaT), describe how efficiently tides are dissipated within the perturbed body. Constraining these factors by looking at the current configuration of the exoplanetary system is extremely challenging, and simulations accounting for the evolution of the system as a whole might help to shed some light on the mechanisms governing this process. Aims. We aim to constrain the tidal dissipation factors of hot-Jupiter-like planets by studying the orbital evolution of Kepler-91b. Methods. We firstly carried out a detailed asteroseismc characterisation of Kepler-91 and computed a dedicated stellar model using both classical and astereoseismic constraints. We then coupled the evolution of the star to the one of the planets by means of our orbital evolution code and studied the evolution of the system by accounting for tides dissipated both in the planet and in the host star. Results. We found that the maximum value for k2DeltaT (or equivalently the minimum value for Q'p) determining the efficiency of equilibrium tides dissipation occurring within Kepler-91b is 0.4 pm 0.25 s (4.5+5.8 * 10^5).Comment: accepted for publication in Astronomy & Astrophysic

Semiclassical Propagation of Coherent States for the Hartree equation

In this paper we consider the nonlinear Hartree equation in presence of a given external potential, for an initial coherent state. Under suitable smoothness assumptions, we approximate the solution in terms of a time dependent coherent state, whose phase and amplitude can be determined by a classical flow. The error can be estimated in $L^2$ by C \sqrt {\var}, \var being the Planck constant. Finally we present a full formal asymptotic expansion

Meningococcal C conjugate vaccine effectiveness before and during an outbreak of invasive meningococcal disease due to Neisseria meningitidis serogroup C/cc11, Tuscany, Italy

Introduction: In Tuscany, Italy, where a universal immunization program with monovalent meningococcal C conjugate vaccine (MCC) was introduced in 2005, an outbreak of invasive meningococcal disease (IMD) due to the hypervirulent strain of Neisseria meningitidis C/cc11 occurred in 2015–2016, leading to an immunization reactive campaign using either the tetravalent (ACWY) meningococcal conjugate or the MCC vaccine. During the outbreak, IMD serogroup C (MenC) cases were also reported among vaccinated individuals. This study aimed to characterize meningococcal C conjugate vaccines (MenC-vaccines) failures and to estimate their effectiveness since the introduction (2005–2016) and during the outbreak (2015–2016). Methods: MenC cases and related vaccine-failures were drawn from the National Surveillance System of Invasive Bacterial Disease (IBD) for the period 2006–2016. A retrospective cohort-study, including the Tuscany' population of the birth-cohorts 1994–2014, was carried out. Based on annual reports of vaccination, person-years of MenC-vaccines exposed and unexposed individuals were calculated by calendar-year, birth-cohort, and local health unit. Adjusted (by birth-cohort, local health unit, and calendar-year) risk-ratios (ARR) of MenC invasive disease for vaccinated vs unvaccinated were estimated by the Poisson model. Vaccine-effectiveness (VE) was estimated as: VE = 1-ARR. Results: In the period 2006–2016, 85 MenC-invasive disease cases were reported; 61 (71.8%) from 2015 to 2016. Twelve vaccine failures occurred, all of them during the outbreak. The time-interval from immunization to IMD onset was 20 days in one case, from 9 months to 3 years in six cases, and ≥7 years in five cases. VE was, 100% (95%CI not estimable, p = 0.03) before the outbreak (2006–2014) and 77% (95%CI 36–92, p &lt; 0.01) during the outbreak; VE was 80% (95%CI 54–92, p &lt; 0.01) during the overall period. Conclusions: In Tuscany, MenC-vaccine failures occurred exclusively during the 2015–2016 outbreak. Most of them occurred several years after vaccination. VE during the outbreak-period was rather high supporting an effective protection induced by MenC-vaccines

Revisiting Kepler-444. II. Rotational, orbital and high-energy fluxes evolution of the system

Context. Kepler-444 is one of the oldest planetary systems known thus far. Its peculiar configuration consisting of five sub-Earth-sized planets orbiting the companion to a binary stellar system makes its early history puzzling. Moreover, observations of HI-Ly-$\rm \alpha$ variations raise many questions about the potential presence of escaping atmospheres today. Aims. We aim to study the orbital evolution of Kepler-444-d and Kepler-444-e and the impact of atmospheric evaporation on Kepler-444-e. Methods. Rotating stellar models of Kepler-444-A were computed with the Geneva stellar evolution code and coupled to an orbital evolution code, accounting for the effects of dynamical, equilibrium tides and atmospheric evaporation. The impacts of multiple stellar rotational histories and extreme ultraviolet (XUV) luminosity evolutionary tracks are explored. Results. Using detailed rotating stellar models able to reproduce the rotation rate of Kepler-444-A, we find that its observed rotation rate is perfectly in line with what is expected for this old K0-type star, indicating that there is no reason for it to be exceptionally active as would be required to explain the observed HI-Ly-$\rm \alpha$ variations from a stellar origin. We show that given the low planetary mass ($\sim$ 0.03 M$_{\rm \oplus}$) and relatively large orbital distance ($\sim$ 0.06 AU) of Kepler-444-d and e, dynamical tides negligibly affect their orbits, regardless of the stellar rotational history considered. We point out instead how remarkable the impact is of the stellar rotational history on the estimation of the lifetime mass loss for Kepler-444-e. We show that, even in the case of an extremely slow rotating star, it seems unlikely that such a planet could retain a fraction of the initial water-ice content if we assume that it formed with a Ganymede-like composition

High prevalence of anti-hepatitis e virus antibodies among blood donors in central Italy, february to march 2014

Prevalence of anti-hepatitis E virus (HEV) antibodies is highly variable in developed countries, which seems partly due to differences in assay sensitivity. Using validated sensitive assays, we tested 313 blood donors attending a hospital transfusion unit in central Italy in January and February 2014 for anti-HEV IgG and IgM and HEV RNA. Data on HEV exposure were collected from all donors. Overall anti-HEV IgG prevalence was 49% (153/313). Eating raw dried pig-liver sausage was the only independent predictor of HEV infection (adjusted prevalence rate ratio = 2.14; 95% confidence interval: 1.23–3.74). Three donors were positive for either anti-HEV IgM (n = 2; 0.6%) or HEV RNA (n = 2; 0.6%); they were completely asymptomatic, without alanine aminotransferase (ALT) abnormalities. Of the two HEV RNA-positive donors (both harbouring genotype 3), one was anti-HEV IgG- and IgM-positive, the other was anti-HEV IgG- and IgM-negative. The third donor was positive for anti-HEV IgG and IgM but HEV RNA-negative. HEV infection is therefore hyperendemic among blood donors (80% men 18–64 years-old) from central Italy and associated with local dietary habits. Nearly 1% of donors have acute or recent infection, implying potential transmission to blood recipients. Neither ALT nor anti-HEV IgM testing seems useful to prevent transfusion-transmitted HEV infection. © 2016, European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control