Architectural Policy Design: How Policy Makers Try to Shape Policy Feedback Effects When Designing Policies

How do politicians use policies strategically for their own political benefit and to achieve long-term political goals, and how does such strategic behavior in- fluence the design of policies? Answering these questions is crucial for under- standing key dynamics, challenges, limitations and opportunities of public policy making, for explaining strategic choices policy makers make when they design new policies and political struggles they engage in with their oppo- nents

Tectonic Implications of Small Earthquakes in the Central Transverse Ranges

Fault-plane solutions for 22 small (local magnitude (M_L ≤ 4.6) earthquakes in the central Transverse Ranges were determined using an azimuthally varying crustal model. The dominant type of faulting observed is reverse faulting on east-striking planes, which suggests a regional stress field characterized by north-south compression. Some strike-slip faulting also occurs. There is some indication that strike-slip earthquakes may be more common than reverse-slip earthquakes during episodes of crustal dilatation. The rate of north-south crustal shortening attributable to small-0earthquake deformation during 1974-76 is two orders of magnitude smaller than the north-south contraction of 0.3 parts per million per year measured at the surface. The scatter in earthquake hypocenters and the general inconsistency of focal mechanisms with geologically determined motions on nearby major faults indicate that the small earthquakes in this region are not associated with large-scale block movements along major fault systems. Rather, they appear to represent fracturing along random minor zones of weakness in response to the regional stress field or, alternatively, small-scale block movements that are below the resolution of this study. Earthquakes in the San Gabriel Mountains north of the Santa Susana-Sierra Madre-Cucamonga frontal fault system tend to concentrate near the eastern and western ends of the range, where good evidence for late Quaternary movement along the frontal faults has been found. Seismicity is markedly lower north of the central section of the frontal fault system, where evidence for late Quaternary movement is lacking

The Use of Web-Based Support Groups Versus Usual Quit-Smoking Care for Men and Women Aged 21-59 Years: Protocol for a Randomized Controlled Trial (Preprint)

BACKGROUND Existing smoking cessation treatments are challenged by low engagement and high relapse rates, suggesting the need for more innovative, accessible, and interactive treatment strategies. Twitter is a Web-based platform that allows people to communicate with each other throughout the day using their phone. OBJECTIVE This study aims to leverage the social media platform of Twitter for fostering peer-to-peer support to decrease relapse with quitting smoking. Furthermore, the study will compare the effects of coed versus women-only groups on women’s success with quitting smoking. METHODS The study design is a Web-based, three-arm randomized controlled trial with two treatment arms (a coed or women-only Twitter support group) and a control arm. Participants are recruited online and are randomized to one of the conditions. All participants will receive 8 weeks of combination nicotine replacement therapy (patches plus their choice of gum or lozenges), serial emails with links to Smokefree.gov quit guides, and instructions to record their quit date online (and to quit smoking on that date) on a date falling within a week of initiation of the study. Participants randomized to a treatment arm are placed in a fully automated Twitter support group (coed or women-only), paired with a buddy (matched on age, gender, location, and education), and encouraged to communicate with the group and buddy via daily tweeted discussion topics and daily automated feedback texts (a positive tweet if they tweet and an encouraging tweet if they miss tweeting). Recruited online from across the continental United States, the sample consists of 215 male and 745 female current cigarette smokers wanting to quit, aged between 21 and 59 years. Self-assessed follow-up surveys are completed online at 1, 3, and 6 months after the date they selected to quit smoking, with salivary cotinine validation at 3 and 6 months. The primary outcome is sustained biochemically confirmed abstinence at the 6-month follow-up. RESULTS From November 2016 to September 2018, 960 participants in 36 groups were recruited for the randomized controlled trial, in addition to 20 participants in an initial pilot group. Data analysis will commence soon for the randomized controlled trial based on data from 896 of the 960 participants (93.3%), with 56 participants lost to follow-up and 8 dropouts. CONCLUSIONS This study combines the mobile platform of Twitter with a support group for quitting smoking. Findings will inform the efficacy of virtual peer-to-peer support groups for quitting smoking and potentially elucidate gender differences in quit rates found in prior research. CLINICALTRIAL ClinicalTrials.gov NCT02823028; https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT0282302

The Retrospective Diagnosis of Attention-Deficit/Hyperactivity Disorder in Adolescents: Family Physicians\u27 Challenges

The primary purpose of the study was to identify current retrospective practices used by family physicians in the diagnosis of Attention-Deficit-Hyperactivity Disorder (ADHD) in adolescents and young adults. In other words, do physicians adhere to best practices and examine information from childhood in order to diagnose ADHD in adolescents and young adults? In addition, this study aimed to examine the information physicians request for ADHD diagnosis, types of treatments they recommend, the type of information they use to assess treatment outcomes, and professional attitudes regarding the nature of ADHD. Participants completed a questionnaire designed to answer the research questions. Participants included a random sample of members of the American Academy of Family Physicians (AAFP, N = 143) and a convenience sample (N = 84). Results indicated discrepancies between participating physicians\u27 current practices and best diagnostic practices, while these physicians generally reported treatment recommendations consistent with evidence-based practice. Reports of adherence to retrospective diagnostic practices and treatment outcome evaluation were limited, suggesting the need for training as well as collaboration with school professionals. Limitations of the current study and implications for future research are discussed

Waveforms and spectra of preshocks and aftershocks of the 1979 Imperial Valley, California, Earthquake: evidence for fault hetergeneity

We have compared digitally-recorded waveforms of M_L 2.0–2.8 earthquakes that occurred in two small areas along the Imperial fault before and after it broke in the ML 6.6 Imperial Valley earthquake on October 15, 1979. Eight preshocks (1977–1979) from a 4½ by 1½ km area centered 4 km SE of the mainshock epicenter have strikingly similar waveforms over the entire record length (∼30 s), with an average peak cross correlation between seismograms of 0.74. The seismograms are well correlated at frequencies up to at least 4 Hz. This implies similar source mechanisms and hypocenters within ¼ of the 4-Hz wavelengths, i.e., <200–400 m. Five aftershocks from the same area show an average peak cross correlation between seismograms of only 0.23. Any associated changes in mechanism must be small because they are not reflected in the first motion data. Analysis of frequency content of these events using bandpass-filtering techniques showed no systematic temporal changes in spectral shape. Ten preshocks and 24 aftershocks from a 1½ by 2 km source area centered along the fault 16 km NW of the mainshock epicenter were also studied. First motion data suggest that all of the aftershocks and a swarm of six preshocks on December 7–9, 1978, were associated with the main fault but that four earlier preshocks were not. The six preshocks on December 7–9, 1978, were tightly clustered, as evidenced by the strong similarity of the waveforms (most peak cross correlations ≥0.6). During this swarm the 8- to 16-Hz spectral amplitude increased relative to the 1- to 2-Hz spectral amplitude over the whole record length by about a factor of 3, suggesting a systematic increase in stress drop. Groups of like events are also present among the aftershocks in this data set. The average peak correlation for pairs of aftershocks, 0.43, is almost the same as that for pairs of preshocks, 0.45, if all 10 preshocks are included. However, several sources appear to have been active simultaneously during the aftershock period so that no more than two to three consecutive aftershocks have maximum cross correlations ≥0.6. The highly localized sources characterized by waveform similarity may represent fault asperities or clusters of asperities. Our observations are consistent with a decrease in the number of these asperities as the weaker ones fail under increasing stress during the intervals between large earthquakes

Political Polarization Triggers Conservatives’ Misinformation Spread to Attain Ingroup Dominance

Conservatives are often blamed for spreading misinformation, but it is unclear whether certain situations trigger them and, if so, why. The authors examine situations that are politically polarized, meaning the topic and/or its framing conveys conflict, discord, or disagreement between the two main political parties (conservatives and liberals). The authors study whether conservatives react to polarized situations by spreading ingroup-skewed political misinformation that is objectively inaccurate but not necessarily understood to be false and whether liberals are less reactive. Using a multimethod approach, the authors conduct six studies, including analyses of statements by public figures and speeches by U.S. presidents, as well as controlled experiments. The results indicate that in polarized situations, conservatives’ need for ingroup dominance is elevated, so they convey more misinformation than liberals. In less polarized situations, conservatives’ need for ingroup dominance is tempered, reducing their misinformation conveyance. These findings suggest that misinformation should not be blamed solely on the individual trait of conservativism, as polarized situations exaggerate conservative motives and behaviors. While news media, social media, political figures, and others may be incentivized to emphasize political polarization to gain audiences and bolster engagement, the resulting misinformation harms truth, trust, and democracy. Possible remedies include improved fact-checking and media literacy education