Warming climate-derived changes in terrestrial Arctic evapotranspiration budget and the impact to hydrological cycle

第6回極域科学シンポジウム分野横断セッション：[IA] 急変する北極気候システム及びその全球的な影響の総合的解明―GRENE北極気候変動研究事業研究成果報告2015―11月19日（木）　国立極地研究所１階交流アトリウ

Extensive fires in southeastern Siberian permafrost linked to preceding Arctic Oscillation

Carbon release through boreal fires could considerably accelerate Arctic warming; however, boreal fire occurrence mechanisms and dynamics remain largely unknown. Here, we analyze fire activity and relevant large-scale atmospheric conditions over southeastern Siberia, which has the largest burned area fraction in the circumboreal and high-level carbon emissions due to high-density peatlands. It is found that the annual burned area increased when a positive Arctic Oscillation (AO) takes place in early months of the year, despite peak fire season occurring 1 to 2 months later. A local high-pressure system linked to the AO drives a high-temperature anomaly in late winter, causing premature snowmelt. This causes earlier ground surface exposure and drier ground in spring due to enhanced evaporation, promoting fire spreading. Recently, southeastern Siberia has experienced warming and snow retreat; therefore, southeastern Siberia requires appropriate fire management strategies to prevent massive carbon release and accelerated global warming

Analysis of satellite and model datasets for variability and trends in Arctic snow extent and depth, 1948-2006

Special Issue: The Second International Symposium on the Arctic Research (ISAR - 2

The influence of climate and hydrological variables on opposite anomaly in active-layer thickness between Eurasian and North American watersheds

This study not only examined the spatiotemporal variations of active-layer thickness (ALT) in permafrost regions during 1948-2006 over the terrestrial Arctic regions experiencing climate changes, but also identified the associated drivers based on observational data and a simulation conducted by a land surface model (CHANGE). The focus on the ALT extends previous studies that have emphasized ground temperatures in permafrost regions. The Ob, Yenisey, Lena, Yukon, and Mackenzie watersheds are foci of the study. Time series of ALT in Eurasian watersheds showed generally increasing trends, while the increase in ALT in North American watersheds was not significant. However, ALT in the North American watersheds has been negatively anomalous since 1990 when the Arctic air temperature entered into a warming phase. The warming temperatures were not simply expressed to increases in ALT. Since 1990 when the warming increased, the forcing of the ALT by the higher annual thawing index (ATI) in the Mackenzie and Yukon basins has been offset by the combined effects of less insulation caused by thinner snow depth and drier soil during summer. In contrast, the increasing ATI together with thicker snow depth and higher summer soil moisture in the Lena contributed to the increase in ALT. The results imply that the soil thermal and moisture regimes formed in the pre-thaw season(s) provide memory that manifests itself during the summer. The different ALT anomalies between Eurasian and North American watersheds highlight increased importance of the variability of hydrological variables

An observation-based assessment of the influences of air temperature and snow depth on soil temperature in Russia

This study assessed trends in the variability of soil temperature (T-SOIL) using spatially averaged observation records from Russian meteorological land stations. The contributions of surface air temperature (SAT) and snow depth (SND) to T-SOIL variation were quantitatively evaluated. Composite time series of these data revealed positive trends during the period of 1921-2011, with accelerated increases since the 1970s. The T-SOIL warming rate over the entire period was faster than the SAT warming rate in both permafrost and non-permafrost regions, suggesting that SND contributes to T-SOIL warming. Statistical analysis revealed that the highest correlation between SND and T-SOIL was in eastern Siberia, which is underlain by permafrost. SND in this region accounted for 50% or more of the observed variation in T-SOIL. T-SOIL in the non-permafrost region of western Siberia was significantly correlated with changes in SAT. Thus, the main factors associated with T-SOIL variation differed between permafrost and non-permafrost regions. This finding underscores the importance of including SND data when assessing historical and future variations and trends of permafrost in the Northern Hemisphere

Quantification of Warming Climate-Induced Changes in Terrestrial Arctic River Ice Thickness and Phenology

A land process model [the coupled hydrological and biogeochemical model (CHANGE)] is used to quantitatively assess changes in the ice phenology, thickness, and volume of terrestrial Arctic rivers from 1979 to 2009. The CHANGE model was coupled with a river routing and discharge model enabling explicit representation of river ice and water temperature dynamics. Model-simulated river ice phenological dates and thickness were generally consistent with in situ river ice data and landscape freeze–thaw (FT) satellite observations. Climate data indicated an increasing trend in winter surface air temperature (SAT) over the pan-Arctic during the study period. Nevertheless, the river ice thickness simulations exhibited a thickening regional trend independent of SAT warming, and associated with less insulation and cooling of underlying river ice by thinning snow cover. Deeper snow depth (SND) combined with SAT warming decreased simulated ice thickness, especially for Siberian rivers, where ice thickness is more strongly correlated with SND than SAT. Overall, the Arctic river ice simulations indicated regional trends toward later fall freezeup, earlier spring breakup, and consequently a longer annual ice-free period. The simulated ice phenological dates were significantly correlated with seasonal SAT warming. It is found that SND is an important factor for winter river ice growth, while ice phenological timing is dominated by seasonal SAT. The mean total Arctic river ice volume simulated from CHANGE was 54.1 km3 based on the annual maximum ice thickness in individual grid cells, while river ice volume for the pan-Arctic rivers decreased by 2.82 km3 (0.5%) over the 1979–2009 record. Arctic river ice is shrinking as a consequence of regional climate warming and coincident with other cryospheric components, including permafrost, glaciers, and sea ice

Effect of snow cover on pan-Arctic permafrost thermal regimes

This study quantitatively evaluated how insulation by snow depth (SND) affected the soil thermal regime and permafrost degradation in the pan-Arctic area, and more generally defined the characteristics of soil temperature (T-SOIL) and SND from 1901 to 2009. This was achieved through experiments performed with the land surface model CHANGE to assess sensitivity to winter precipitation as well as air temperature. Simulated T-SOIL, active layer thickness (ALT), SND, and snow density were generally comparable with in situ or satellite observations at large scales and over long periods. Northernmost regions had snow that remained relatively stable and in a thicker state during the past four decades, generating greater increases in T-SOIL. Changes in snow cover have led to changes in the thermal state of the underlying soil, which is strongly dependent on both the magnitude and the timing of changes in snowfall. Simulations of the period 2001-2009 revealed significant differences in the extent of near-surface permafrost, reflecting differences in the model's treatment of meteorology and the soil bottom boundary. Permafrost loss was greater when SND increased in autumn rather than in winter, due to insulation of the soil resulting from early cooling. Simulations revealed that T-SOIL tended to increase over most of the pan-Arctic from 1901 to 2009, and that this increase was significant in northern regions, especially in northeastern Siberia where SND is responsible for 50 % or more of the changes in T-SOIL at a depth of 3.6 m. In the same region, ALT also increased at a rate of approximately 2.3 cm per decade. The most sensitive response of ALT to changes in SND appeared in the southern boundary regions of permafrost, in contrast to permafrost temperatures within the 60 degrees N-80 degrees N region, which were more sensitive to changes in snow cover. Finally, our model suggests that snow cover contributes to the warming of permafrost in northern regions and could play a more important role under conditions of future Arctic warming