Port safety evaluation from a captain's perspective: The Korean experience

There are many factors affecting navigational safety in ports, including weather, the characteristics of the channels and vessel types, etc. This paper aims to identify the factors influencing navigational safety in ports and to analyze the extent to which such factors affect the safety of ports from the perspective of ship captains through a real case study. A quantitative analysis is carried out using the data collected from 21 captains who have over 10. years experience in operating ships individually. The identified factors indicate risk implications in ports. A fuzzy analytical hierarchy process is used to evaluate the importance of the factors and to rank the safety levels of the targeted ports in Korea from a captain's perspective. Consequently, among Busan, Ulsan, Gwangyang, Incheon, and Mokpo, Busan is evaluated by captains as the safest port, while Mokpo is the most risky. The research also reveals that it is applicable to use domain expert knowledge when historical failure data is unavailable or difficult to access to evaluate port safety. The result shows great research significance in terms of providing relevant stakeholders, such as port authorities and shipping companies, with an insight into port safety performance and thus facilitating the development of the associated risk control measures. © 2014 Elsevier Ltd

Waist circumference and waist-to-height ratio of Hong Kong Chinese children

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Central body fat is a better predictor than overall body fat for cardiovascular (CV) risk factors in both adults and children. Waist circumference (WC) has been used as a proxy measure of central body fat. Children at high CV risk may be identified by WC measurements. Waist-to-height ratio (WHTR) has been proposed as an alternative, conveniently age-independent measure of CV risk although WHTR percentiles have not been reported. We aim to provide age- and sex-specific reference values for WC and WHTR in Hong Kong Chinese children.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Cross sectional study in a large representative sample of 14,842 children aged 6 to 18 years in 2005/6. Sex-specific descriptive statistics for whole-year age groups and smoothed percentile curves of WC and WHTR were derived and presented.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>WC increased with age, although less after age 14 years in girls. WHTR decreased with age (particularly up to age 14). WHTR correlated less closely than WC with BMI (r = 0.65, 0.59 cf. 0.93, 0.91, for boys and girls respectively).</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Reference values and percentile curves for WC and WHRT of Chinese children and adolescents are provided. Both WC and WHTR are age dependent. Since the use of WHRT does not obviate the need for age-related reference standards, simple WC measurement is a more convenient method for central fat estimation than WHRT.</p

Overexpression of Pax6 results in microphthalmia, retinal dysplasia and defective retinal ganglion cell axon guidance

Background: The transcription factor Pax6 is expressed by many cell types in the developing eye. Eyes do not form in homozygous loss-of-function mouse mutants (Pax6(Sey/Sey)) and are abnormally small in Pax6(Sey/+) mutants. Eyes are also abnormally small in PAX77 mice expressing multiple copies of human PAX6 in addition to endogenous Pax6; protein sequences are identical in the two species. The developmental events that lead to microphthalmia in PAX77 mice are not well-characterised, so it is not clear whether over- and under-expression of Pax6/PAX6 cause microphthalmia through similar mechanisms. Here, we examined the consequences of over-expression for the eye and its axonal connections. Results: Eyes form in PAX77(+/+) embryos but subsequently degenerate. At E12.5, we found no abnormalities in ocular morphology, retinal cell cycle parameters and the incidence of retinal cell death. From E14.5 on, we observed malformations of the optic disc. From E16.5 into postnatal life there is progressively more severe retinal dysplasia and microphthalmia. Analyses of patterns of gene expression indicated that PAX77(+/+) retinae produce a normal range of cell types, including retinal ganglion cells (RGCs). At E14.5 and E16.5, quantitative RT-PCR with probes for a range of molecules associated with retinal development showed only one significant change: a slight reduction in levels of mRNA encoding the secreted morphogen Shh at E16.5. At E16.5, tract-tracing with carbocyanine dyes in PAX77(+/+) embryos revealed errors in intraretinal navigation by RGC axons, a decrease in the number of RGC axons reaching the thalamus and an increase in the proportion of ipsilateral projections among those RGC axons that do reach the thalamus. A survey of embryos with different Pax6/PAX6 gene dosage (Pax6(Sey/+), Pax6(+/+), PAX77(+) and PAX77(+/+)) showed that (1) the total number of RGC axons projected by the retina and (2) the proportions that are sorted into the ipsilateral and contralateral optic tracts at the optic chiasm vary differently with gene dosage. Increasing dosage increases the proportion projecting ipsilaterally regardless of the size of the total projection. Conclusion: Pax6 overexpression does not obviously impair the initial formation of the eye and its major cell-types but prevents normal development of the retina from about E14.5, leading eventually to severe retinal degeneration in postnatal life. This sequence is different to that underlying microphthalmia in Pax6(+/-) heterozygotes, which is due primarily to defects in the initial stages of lens formation. Before the onset of severe retinal dysplasia, Pax6 overexpression causes defects of retinal axons, preventing their normal growth and navigation through the optic chiasm

Interaction between Purkinje Cells and Inhibitory Interneurons May Create Adjustable Output Waveforms to Generate Timed Cerebellar Output

We develop a new model that explains how the cerebellum may generate the timing in classical delay eyeblink conditioning. Recent studies show that both Purkinje cells (PCs) and inhibitory interneurons (INs) have parallel signal processing streams with two time scales: an AMPA receptor-mediated fast process and a metabotropic glutamate receptor (mGluR)-mediated slow process. Moreover, one consistent finding is an increased excitability of PC dendrites (in Larsell's lobule HVI) in animals when they acquire the classical delay eyeblink conditioning naturally, in contrast to in vitro studies, where learning involves long-term depression (LTD). Our model proposes that the delayed response comes from the slow dynamics of mGluR-mediated IP3 activation, and the ensuing calcium concentration change, and not from LTP/LTD. The conditioned stimulus (tone), arriving on the parallel fibers, triggers this slow activation in INs and PC spines. These excitatory (from PC spines) and inhibitory (from INs) signals then interact at the PC dendrites to generate variable waveforms of PC activation. When the unconditioned stimulus (puff), arriving on the climbing fibers, is coupled frequently with this slow activation the waveform is amplified (due to an increased excitability) and leads to a timed pause in the PC population. The disinhibition of deep cerebellar nuclei by this timed pause causes the delayed conditioned response. This suggested PC-IN interaction emphasizes a richer role of the INs in learning and also conforms to the recent evidence that mGluR in the cerebellar cortex may participate in slow motor execution. We show that the suggested mechanism can endow the cerebellar cortex with the versatility to learn almost any temporal pattern, in addition to those that arise in classical conditioning

Lawson criterion for ignition exceeded in an inertial fusion experiment

For more than half a century, researchers around the world have been engaged in attempts to achieve fusion ignition as a proof of principle of various fusion concepts. Following the Lawson criterion, an ignited plasma is one where the fusion heating power is high enough to overcome all the physical processes that cool the fusion plasma, creating a positive thermodynamic feedback loop with rapidly increasing temperature. In inertially confined fusion, ignition is a state where the fusion plasma can begin "burn propagation" into surrounding cold fuel, enabling the possibility of high energy gain. While "scientific breakeven" (i.e., unity target gain) has not yet been achieved (here target gain is 0.72, 1.37 MJ of fusion for 1.92 MJ of laser energy), this Letter reports the first controlled fusion experiment, using laser indirect drive, on the National Ignition Facility to produce capsule gain (here 5.8) and reach ignition by nine different formulations of the Lawson criterion

The burden of bacterial antimicrobial resistance in the WHO African region in 2019: a cross-country systematic analysis

Background A critical and persistent challenge to global health and modern health care is the threat of antimicrobial resistance (AMR). Previous studies have reported a disproportionate burden of AMR in low-income and middle-income countries, but there remains an urgent need for more in-depth analyses across Africa. This study presents one of the most comprehensive sets of regional and country-level estimates of bacterial AMR burden in the WHO African region to date. Methods We estimated deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) attributable to and associated with AMR for 23 bacterial pathogens and 88 pathogen–drug combinations for countries in the WHO African region in 2019. Our methodological approach consisted of five broad components: the number of deaths in which infection had a role, the proportion of infectious deaths attributable to a given infectious syndrome, the proportion of infectious syndrome deaths attributable to a given pathogen, the percentage of a given pathogen resistant to an antimicrobial drug of interest, and the excess risk of mortality (or duration of an infection) associated with this resistance. These components were then used to estimate the disease burden by using two counterfactual scenarios: deaths attributable to AMR (considering an alternative scenario where infections with resistant pathogens are replaced with susceptible ones) and deaths associated with AMR (considering an alternative scenario where drug-resistant infections would not occur at all). We obtained data from research hospitals, surveillance networks, and infection databases maintained by private laboratories and medical technology companies. We generated 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) for final estimates as the 25th and 975th ordered values across 1000 posterior draws, and models were cross-validated for out-of-sample predictive validity. Findings In the WHO African region in 2019, there were an estimated 1·05 million deaths (95% UI 829 000–1 316 000) associated with bacterial AMR and 250 000 deaths (192 000–325 000) attributable to bacterial AMR. The largest fatal AMR burden was attributed to lower respiratory and thorax infections (119 000 deaths [92 000–151 000], or 48% of all estimated bacterial pathogen AMR deaths), bloodstream infections (56 000 deaths [37 000–82 000], or 22%), intra-abdominal infections (26 000 deaths [17 000–39 000], or 10%), and tuberculosis (18 000 deaths [3850–39 000], or 7%). Seven leading pathogens were collectively responsible for 821 000 deaths (636 000–1 051 000) associated with resistance in this region, with four pathogens exceeding 100 000 deaths each: Streptococcus pneumoniae, Klebsiella pneumoniae, Escherichia coli, and Staphylococcus aureus. Third-generation cephalosporin-resistant K pneumoniae and meticillin-resistant S aureus were shown to be the leading pathogen–drug combinations in 25 and 16 countries, respectively (53% and 34% of the whole region, comprising 47 countries) for deaths attributable to AMR. Interpretation This study reveals a high level of AMR burden for several bacterial pathogens and pathogen–drug combinations in the WHO African region. The high mortality rates associated with these pathogens demonstrate an urgent need to address the burden of AMR in Africa. These estimates also show that quality and access to health care and safe water and sanitation are correlated with AMR mortality, with a higher fatal burden found in lower resource settings. Our cross-country analyses within this region can help local governments to leverage domestic and global funding to create stewardship policies that target the leading pathogen–drug combinations. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Wellcome Trust, and Department of Health and Social Care using UK aid funding managed by the Fleming Fund