Water Cycle Changes

This chapter assesses multiple lines of evidence to evaluate past, present and future changes in the global water cycle. It complements material in Chapters 2, 3 and 4 on observed and projected changes in the water cycle, and Chapters 10 and 11 on regional climate change and extreme events. The assessment includes the physical basis for water cycle changes, observed changes in the water cycle and attribution of their causes, future projections and related key uncertainties, and the potential for abrupt change. Paleoclimate evidence, observations, reanalyses and global and regional model simulations are considered. The assessment shows widespread, nonuniform human-caused alterations of the water cycle, which have been obscured by a competition between different drivers across the 20th century and that will be increasingly dominated by greenhouse gas forcing at the global scale

A computer-based medical record system and personal digital assistants to assess and follow patients with respiratory tract infections visiting a rural Kenyan health centre

BACKGROUND: Clinical research can be facilitated by the use of informatics tools. We used an existing electronic medical record (EMR) system and personal data assistants (PDAs) to assess the characteristics and outcomes of patients with acute respiratory illnesses (ARIs) visiting a Kenyan rural health center. METHODS: We modified the existing EMR to include details on patients with ARIs. The EMR database was then used to identify patients with ARIs who were prospectively followed up by a research assistant who rode a bicycle to patients' homes and entered data into a PDA. RESULTS: A total of 2986 clinic visits for 2009 adult patients with respiratory infections were registered in the database between August 2002 and January 2005; 433 patients were selected for outcome assessments. These patients were followed up in the villages and assessed at 7 and 30 days later. Complete follow-up data were obtained on 381 patients (88%) and merged with data from the enrollment visit's electronic medical records and subsequent health center visits to assess duration of illness and complications. Symptoms improved at 7 and 30 days, but a substantial minority of patients had persistent symptoms. Eleven percent of patients sought additional care for their respiratory infection. CONCLUSION: EMRs and PDA are useful tools for performing prospective clinical research in resource constrained developing countries

Cost-consciousness among Swiss doctors: a cross-sectional survey

BACKGROUND: Knowing what influences physicians attitudes toward health care costs is an important matter, because most health care expenditures are the results of doctors' decisions. Many decisions regarding medical tests and treatments are influenced by factors other than the expected benefit to the patient, including the doctor's demographic characteristics and concerns about cost and income. METHODS: Doctors (n = 1184) in Geneva, Switzerland, answered questions about their cost-consciousness, practice patterns (medical specialty, public.vs. private sector, number of patients per week, time spent with a new patient), work satisfaction, and stress from uncertainty. General linear models were used to identify independent risk factors of higher cost-consciousness. RESULTS: Most doctors agreed that trying to contain costs was their responsibility ("agree" or "totally agree": 90%) and that they should take a more prominent role in limiting the use of unnecessary tests (92%); most disagreed that doctors are too busy to worry about costs (69%) and that the cost of health care is only important if the patient has to pay for it out-of-pocket (88%). In multivariate analyses, cost-consciousness was higher among doctors in the public sector, those who saw fewer patients per week, who were most tolerant of uncertainty, and who were most satisfied with their work. CONCLUSION: Thus even in a setting with very high health care expenditures, doctors' stated cost-consciousness appeared to be generally high, even though it was not uniformly distributed among them

Coupling computer-interpretable guidelines with a drug-database through a web-based system – The PRESGUID project

BACKGROUND: Clinical Practice Guidelines (CPGs) available today are not extensively used due to lack of proper integration into clinical settings, knowledge-related information resources, and lack of decision support at the point of care in a particular clinical context. OBJECTIVE: The PRESGUID project (PREScription and GUIDelines) aims to improve the assistance provided by guidelines. The project proposes an online service enabling physicians to consult computerized CPGs linked to drug databases for easier integration into the healthcare process. METHODS: Computable CPGs are structured as decision trees and coded in XML format. Recommendations related to drug classes are tagged with ATC codes. We use a mapping module to enhance computerized guidelines coupling with a drug database, which contains detailed information about each usable specific medication. In this way, therapeutic recommendations are backed up with current and up-to-date information from the database. RESULTS: Two authoritative CPGs, originally diffused as static textual documents, have been implemented to validate the computerization process and to illustrate the usefulness of the resulting automated CPGs and their coupling with a drug database. We discuss the advantages of this approach for practitioners and the implications for both guideline developers and drug database providers. Other CPGs will be implemented and evaluated in real conditions by clinicians working in different health institutions

Computerized clinical decision support systems for drug prescribing and management: A decision-maker-researcher partnership systematic review

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Computerized clinical decision support systems (CCDSSs) for drug therapy management are designed to promote safe and effective medication use. Evidence documenting the effectiveness of CCDSSs for improving drug therapy is necessary for informed adoption decisions. The objective of this review was to systematically review randomized controlled trials assessing the effects of CCDSSs for drug therapy management on process of care and patient outcomes. We also sought to identify system and study characteristics that predicted benefit.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We conducted a decision-maker-researcher partnership systematic review. We updated our earlier reviews (1998, 2005) by searching MEDLINE, EMBASE, EBM Reviews, Inspec, and other databases, and consulting reference lists through January 2010. Authors of 82% of included studies confirmed or supplemented extracted data. We included only randomized controlled trials that evaluated the effect on process of care or patient outcomes of a CCDSS for drug therapy management compared to care provided without a CCDSS. A study was considered to have a positive effect (<it>i.e.</it>, CCDSS showed improvement) if at least 50% of the relevant study outcomes were statistically significantly positive.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Sixty-five studies met our inclusion criteria, including 41 new studies since our previous review. Methodological quality was generally high and unchanged with time. CCDSSs improved process of care performance in 37 of the 59 studies assessing this type of outcome (64%, 57% of all studies). Twenty-nine trials assessed patient outcomes, of which six trials (21%, 9% of all trials) reported improvements.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>CCDSSs inconsistently improved process of care measures and seldomly improved patient outcomes. Lack of clear patient benefit and lack of data on harms and costs preclude a recommendation to adopt CCDSSs for drug therapy management.</p

A Prescription for Improving Drug Formulary Decision Making

Gordon Schiff and colleagues present a new tool and checklist to help formularies make decisions about drug inclusion and to guide rational drug use

Reproducibility and day time bias correction of optoelectronic leg volumetry: a prospective cohort study

Background Leg edema is a common manifestation of various underlying pathologies. Reliable measurement tools are required to quantify edema and monitor therapeutic interventions. Aim of the present work was to investigate the reproducibility of optoelectronic leg volumetry over 3 weeks' time period and to eliminate daytime related within-individual variability. Methods Optoelectronic leg volumetry was performed in 63 hairdressers (mean age 45 ± 16 years, 85.7% female) in standing position twice within a minute for each leg and repeated after 3 weeks. Both lower leg (legBD) and whole limb (limbBF) volumetry were analysed. Reproducibility was expressed as analytical and within-individual coefficients of variance (CVA, CVW), and as intra-class correlation coefficients (ICC). Results A total of 492 leg volume measurements were analysed. Both legBD and limbBF volumetry were highly reproducible with CVA of 0.5% and 0.7%, respectively. Within-individual reproducibility of legBD and limbBF volumetry over a three weeks' period was high (CVW 1.3% for both; ICC 0.99 for both). At both visits, the second measurement revealed a significantly higher volume compared to the first measurement with a mean increase of 7.3 ml ± 14.1 (0.33% ± 0.58%) for legBD and 30.1 ml ± 48.5 ml (0.52% ± 0.79%) for limbBF volume. A significant linear correlation between absolute and relative leg volume differences and the difference of exact day time of measurement between the two study visits was found (P < .001). A therefore determined time-correction formula permitted further improvement of CVW. Conclusions Leg volume changes can be reliably assessed by optoelectronic leg volumetry at a single time point and over a 3 weeks' time period. However, volumetry results are biased by orthostatic and daytime-related volume changes. The bias for day-time related volume changes can be minimized by a time-correction formula

Intra-Individual Variability in Alzheimer's Disease and Cognitive Aging: Definitions, Context, and Effect Sizes

To explore different definitions of intra-individual variability (IIV) to summarize performance on commonly utilized cognitive tests (Mini Mental State Exam; Clock Drawing Test); compare them and their potential to differentiate clinically-defined populations; and to examine their utility in predicting clinical change in individuals from the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI).) were computed for each of these definitions in 500 simulated replicates using scores on the Mini Mental State Exam and Clock Drawing Test. IIV was computed based on test items separately (‘within test’ IIV) and the two tests together (‘across test’ IIV). The best performing definition was then used to compute IIV for a third test, the Alzheimer's Disease Assessment Scale-Cognitive, and the simulations and effect sizes were again computed. All effect size estimates based on simulated data were compared to those computed based on the total scores in the observed data. Association between total score and IIV summaries of the tests and the Clinician's Dementia Rating were estimated to test the utility of IIV in predicting clinically meaningful changes in the cohorts over 12- and 24-month intervals.ES estimates differed substantially depending on the definition of IIV and the test(s) on which IIV was based. IIV (coefficient of variation) summaries of MMSE and Clock-Drawing performed similarly to their total scores, the ADAS total performed better than its IIV summary.IIV can be computed within (items) or across (totals) items on commonly-utilized cognitive tests, and may provide a useful additional summary measure of neuropsychological test performance

Are youth mentoring programs good value-for-money? An evaluation of the Big Brothers Big Sisters Melbourne Program

Background : The Big Brothers Big Sisters (BBBS) program matches vulnerable young people with a trained, supervised adult volunteer as mentor. The young people are typically seriously disadvantaged, with multiple psychosocial problems.Methods : Threshold analysis was undertaken to determine whether investment in the program was a worthwhile use of limited public funds. The potential cost savings were based on US estimates of life-time costs associated with high-risk youth who drop out-of-school and become adult criminals. The intervention was modelled for children aged 10&ndash;14 years residing in Melbourne in 2004.Results : If the program serviced 2,208 of the most vulnerable young people, it would cost AUD 39.5 M. Assuming 50% were high-risk, the associated costs of their adult criminality would be AUD 3.3 billion. To break even, the program would need to avert high-risk behaviours in only 1.3% (14/1,104) of participants.Conclusion : This indicative evaluation suggests that the BBBS program represents excellent \u27value for money\u27.<br /