Global age-sex-specific fertility, mortality, healthy life expectancy (HALE), and population estimates in 204 countries and territories, 1950–2019: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background: Accurate and up-to-date assessment of demographic metrics is crucial for understanding a wide range of social, economic, and public health issues that affect populations worldwide. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 produced updated and comprehensive demographic assessments of the key indicators of fertility, mortality, migration, and population for 204 countries and territories and selected subnational locations from 1950 to 2019. Methods: 8078 country-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 938 surveys, 349 censuses, and 238 other sources were identified and used to estimate age-specific fertility. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate age-specific fertility rates for 5-year age groups between ages 15 and 49 years. With extensions to age groups 10–14 and 50–54 years, the total fertility rate (TFR) was then aggregated using the estimated age-specific fertility between ages 10 and 54 years. 7417 sources were used for under-5 mortality estimation and 7355 for adult mortality. ST-GPR was used to synthesise data sources after correction for known biases. Adult mortality was measured as the probability of death between ages 15 and 60 years based on vital registration, sample registration, and sibling histories, and was also estimated using ST-GPR. HIV-free life tables were then estimated using estimates of under-5 and adult mortality rates using a relational model life table system created for GBD, which closely tracks observed age-specific mortality rates from complete vital registration when available. Independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated by an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys and antenatal clinic serosurveillance and other sources were incorporated into the estimates in countries with large epidemics. Annual and single-year age estimates of net migration and population for each country and territory were generated using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model that analysed estimated age-specific fertility and mortality rates along with 1250 censuses and 747 population registry years. We classified location-years into seven categories on the basis of the natural rate of increase in population (calculated by subtracting the crude death rate from the crude birth rate) and the net migration rate. We computed healthy life expectancy (HALE) using years lived with disability (YLDs) per capita, life tables, and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty was propagated throughout the demographic estimation process, including fertility, mortality, and population, with 1000 draw-level estimates produced for each metric. Findings: The global TFR decreased from 2•72 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 2•66–2•79) in 2000 to 2•31 (2•17–2•46) in 2019. Global annual livebirths increased from 134•5 million (131•5–137•8) in 2000 to a peak of 139•6 million (133•0–146•9) in 2016. Global livebirths then declined to 135•3 million (127•2–144•1) in 2019. Of the 204 countries and territories included in this study, in 2019, 102 had a TFR lower than 2•1, which is considered a good approximation of replacement-level fertility. All countries in sub-Saharan Africa had TFRs above replacement level in 2019 and accounted for 27•1% (95% UI 26•4–27•8) of global livebirths. Global life expectancy at birth increased from 67•2 years (95% UI 66•8–67•6) in 2000 to 73•5 years (72•8–74•3) in 2019. The total number of deaths increased from 50•7 million (49•5–51•9) in 2000 to 56•5 million (53•7–59•2) in 2019. Under-5 deaths declined from 9•6 million (9•1–10•3) in 2000 to 5•0 million (4•3–6•0) in 2019. Global population increased by 25•7%, from 6•2 billion (6•0–6•3) in 2000 to 7•7 billion (7•5–8•0) in 2019. In 2019, 34 countries had negative natural rates of increase; in 17 of these, the population declined because immigration was not sufficient to counteract the negative rate of decline. Globally, HALE increased from 58•6 years (56•1–60•8) in 2000 to 63•5 years (60•8–66•1) in 2019. HALE increased in 202 of 204 countries and territories between 2000 and 2019. Interpretation: Over the past 20 years, fertility rates have been dropping steadily and life expectancy has been increasing, with few exceptions. Much of this change follows historical patterns linking social and economic determinants, such as those captured by the GBD Socio-demographic Index, with demographic outcomes. More recently, several countries have experienced a combination of low fertility and stagnating improvement in mortality rates, pushing more populations into the late stages of the demographic transition. Tracking demographic change and the emergence of new patterns will be essential for global health monitoring. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2020 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 licens

Global burden of 87 risk factors in 204 countries and territories, 1990�2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background: Rigorous analysis of levels and trends in exposure to leading risk factors and quantification of their effect on human health are important to identify where public health is making progress and in which cases current efforts are inadequate. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 provides a standardised and comprehensive assessment of the magnitude of risk factor exposure, relative risk, and attributable burden of disease. Methods: GBD 2019 estimated attributable mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years of life lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 87 risk factors and combinations of risk factors, at the global level, regionally, and for 204 countries and territories. GBD uses a hierarchical list of risk factors so that specific risk factors (eg, sodium intake), and related aggregates (eg, diet quality), are both evaluated. This method has six analytical steps. (1) We included 560 risk�outcome pairs that met criteria for convincing or probable evidence on the basis of research studies. 12 risk�outcome pairs included in GBD 2017 no longer met inclusion criteria and 47 risk�outcome pairs for risks already included in GBD 2017 were added based on new evidence. (2) Relative risks were estimated as a function of exposure based on published systematic reviews, 81 systematic reviews done for GBD 2019, and meta-regression. (3) Levels of exposure in each age-sex-location-year included in the study were estimated based on all available data sources using spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression method, or alternative methods. (4) We determined, from published trials or cohort studies, the level of exposure associated with minimum risk, called the theoretical minimum risk exposure level. (5) Attributable deaths, YLLs, YLDs, and DALYs were computed by multiplying population attributable fractions (PAFs) by the relevant outcome quantity for each age-sex-location-year. (6) PAFs and attributable burden for combinations of risk factors were estimated taking into account mediation of different risk factors through other risk factors. Across all six analytical steps, 30 652 distinct data sources were used in the analysis. Uncertainty in each step of the analysis was propagated into the final estimates of attributable burden. Exposure levels for dichotomous, polytomous, and continuous risk factors were summarised with use of the summary exposure value to facilitate comparisons over time, across location, and across risks. Because the entire time series from 1990 to 2019 has been re-estimated with use of consistent data and methods, these results supersede previously published GBD estimates of attributable burden. Findings: The largest declines in risk exposure from 2010 to 2019 were among a set of risks that are strongly linked to social and economic development, including household air pollution; unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing; and child growth failure. Global declines also occurred for tobacco smoking and lead exposure. The largest increases in risk exposure were for ambient particulate matter pollution, drug use, high fasting plasma glucose, and high body-mass index. In 2019, the leading Level 2 risk factor globally for attributable deaths was high systolic blood pressure, which accounted for 10·8 million (95 uncertainty interval UI 9·51�12·1) deaths (19·2% 16·9�21·3 of all deaths in 2019), followed by tobacco (smoked, second-hand, and chewing), which accounted for 8·71 million (8·12�9·31) deaths (15·4% 14·6�16·2 of all deaths in 2019). The leading Level 2 risk factor for attributable DALYs globally in 2019 was child and maternal malnutrition, which largely affects health in the youngest age groups and accounted for 295 million (253�350) DALYs (11·6% 10·3�13·1 of all global DALYs that year). The risk factor burden varied considerably in 2019 between age groups and locations. Among children aged 0�9 years, the three leading detailed risk factors for attributable DALYs were all related to malnutrition. Iron deficiency was the leading risk factor for those aged 10�24 years, alcohol use for those aged 25�49 years, and high systolic blood pressure for those aged 50�74 years and 75 years and older. Interpretation: Overall, the record for reducing exposure to harmful risks over the past three decades is poor. Success with reducing smoking and lead exposure through regulatory policy might point the way for a stronger role for public policy on other risks in addition to continued efforts to provide information on risk factor harm to the general public. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2020 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 licens

Hypothermia following Pediatric Traumatic Brain Injury

Preclinical as well as clinical studies in traumatic brain injury (TBI) have established the likely association of secondary injury and outcome in adults in children following severe injury. Similarly, there is growing evidence in experimental laboratory studies that moderate hypothermia has a beneficial effect on outcome, though the exact mechanisms remain to be absolutely defined. The Pediatric TBI Guidelines provided the knowledge and background for standard management of children following severe TBI and highlighted that there are very few clinical studies to date. In particular with respect to temperature regulation and the use of hypothermia, initial findings of case series of small numbers were promising. Further preliminary randomized clinical trials, both single institution and multicenter, have provided the initial data on safety and efficacy, though larger, Phase III studies are necessary to ensure both the safety and efficacy of hypothermia in pediatric TBI prior to implementation as part of the standard of care. It is expected that hypothermia initiated early after severe TBI will have a protective effect on the pediatric brain and can be done safely, but this still remains to be definitively tested

Physiologic Characteristics of Hyperosmolar Therapy After Pediatric Traumatic Brain Injury

All work was performed at the Barrow Neurological Institute at Phoenix Children's Hospital. Objective: Investigate injury severity, neuroimaging, physiology, and outcomes with bolus hyperosmolar therapy (HT) of 3% hypertonic saline or mannitol. Methods: Retrospective cohort analysis was performed. Physiologic variables included intracranial pressure (ICP), arterial blood pressure (ABP), and heart rate (HR). Volume-pressure compensation (PVC) indices included ICP pulse amplitude (AMP) and correlation of AMP and ICP (RAP). Cerebrovascular pressure reactivity (CVPR) indices included pressure reactivity index (PRx), pulse amplitude index (PAx), wavelet PRx (wPRx), and correlation of AMP and cerebral perfusion pressure (RAC). Heart rate variability (HRV) indices included heart rate standard deviation (HRsd), heart rate root mean square of successive differences (HRrmssd) and low-high frequency ratio (LHF). Outcome was assessed using Glasgow Outcomes Scale Extended Pediatrics, 12-months post-injury. Generalized estimating equations was applied to investigate associations of physiologic changes and pre-treatment indices with HT efficacy. Repeated measures analysis of variance was applied to investigate changes after HT without intracranial hypertension (ICH). Wilcoxon rank-sum was applied to investigate HT responsiveness with age, injury severity, neuroimaging, and outcomes. Results: Thirty children received bolus HT. ICH reduction after HT was associated with reduced ICP (p = 0.0064), ABP (p = 0.0126), PRx (p = 0.0063), increased HRsd (p = 0.0408), and decreased pretreatment RAC (p = 0.0115) and wPRx (p = 0.0072). HT-responsive patients were older and had improved outcomes (p = 0.0394). HT without ICH was associated with increased ICP (P < 0.0001) and ABP (P < 0.0001), increases in all HRV indices and decreases in all PVC indices. Conclusion: After pediatric TBI, efficacious HT is associated with decreased ICP and ABP, pre-treatment indices suggesting efficient CVPR, and potentially improved outcomes. © Copyright © 2021 Wellard, Kuwabara, Adelson and Appavu.Open access journalThis item from the UA Faculty Publications collection is made available by the University of Arizona with support from the University of Arizona Libraries. If you have questions, please contact us at [email protected]

Cerebral Hemodynamic Predictors of Poor 6-Month Glasgow Outcome Score in Severe Pediatric Traumatic Brain Injury

Little is known regarding the cerebral autoregulation in pediatric traumatic brain injury (TBI). We examined the relationship between cerebral hemodynamic predictors, including cerebral autoregulation, and long-term outcome after severe pediatric TBI. After Institutional Review Board (IRB) approval, a retrospective analysis of prospectively collected data (May 2002 to October 2007) for children age ≤16 years with severe TBI (admission Glasgow Coma Scale [GCS] score <9) was performed. Cerebral autoregulation was assessed within 72 h after TBI. Cerebral hemodynamic predictors (intracranial pressure [ICP], systolic blood pressure [SBP], and cerebral perfusion pressure [CPP]) through the first 72 h after TBI were abstracted. Univariate and multivariate analyses examined the relationship between impaired cerebral autoregulation (autoregulatory index <0.4), intracranial hypertension (ICP >20 mm Hg), and hypotension (SBP <5th percentile and CPP <40 mm Hg). Six-month Glasgow Outcome Scale (GOS) score of <4 defined poor outcome. Ten (28%) of the 36 children examined (9.1 ± 5.3 [0.8–16] years; 74% male) had poor outcome. Univariate factors associated with poor outcome were impaired cerebral autoregulation (p = 0.005), SBP <5th percentile for age and gender (p = 0.02), and low middle cerebral artery flow velocity (<2 SD for age and gender; p = 0.04). Independent risk factors for poor 6-month GOS were impaired cerebral autoregulation (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 12.0; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.4–99.4) and hypotension (SBP <5th percentile; aOR 8.8; 95% CI 1.1–70.5), respectively. Previous studies of TBI describing poor outcome with hemodynamics did not consider the status of cerebral autoregulation. In this study, both impaired cerebral autoregulation and SBP <5th percentile were independent risk factors for poor 6-month GOS