An Outline of the Bayesian Decision Theory

In this paper we give an outline on the Bayesian Decision Theory.Comment: arXiv admin note: text overlap with arXiv:1409.826

First-Order Provenance Games

We propose a new model of provenance, based on a game-theoretic approach to query evaluation. First, we study games G in their own right, and ask how to explain that a position x in G is won, lost, or drawn. The resulting notion of game provenance is closely related to winning strategies, and excludes from provenance all "bad moves", i.e., those which unnecessarily allow the opponent to improve the outcome of a play. In this way, the value of a position is determined by its game provenance. We then define provenance games by viewing the evaluation of a first-order query as a game between two players who argue whether a tuple is in the query answer. For RA+ queries, we show that game provenance is equivalent to the most general semiring of provenance polynomials N[X]. Variants of our game yield other known semirings. However, unlike semiring provenance, game provenance also provides a "built-in" way to handle negation and thus to answer why-not questions: In (provenance) games, the reason why x is not won, is the same as why x is lost or drawn (the latter is possible for games with draws). Since first-order provenance games are draw-free, they yield a new provenance model that combines how- and why-not provenance

Prediction of Complex Systems Using Grey Models

Complexity is an inherent property of the world known. According to Kolmogoroff Randomness and Complexity are connected. Therefore the description of randomness using stochastical procedures has been widely used. Nevertheless other methods might be used to predict complex systems, such as Grey Models. In this paper the occurrence of extreme water levels along the Dutch north-sea has been investigated using Grey Models. Other applications are possible and have been carried out by the authors, such as identification of damaged elements in reinforced concrete structural elements

Visual recalibration and selective adaptation in auditory-visual speech perception:Contrasting build-up courses

Exposure to incongruent auditory and visual speech produces both visual recalibration and selective adaptation of auditory speech identification. In an earlier study, exposure to an ambiguous auditory utterance (intermediate between /aba/ and /ada/) dubbed onto the video of a face articulating either /aba/ or /ada/, recalibrated the perceived identity of auditory targets in the direction of the visual component, while exposure to congruent non-ambiguous /aba/ or /ada/ pairs created selective adaptation, i.e. a shift of perceived identity in the opposite direction [Bertelson, P. Vroomen, J. & de Gelder, B. (2003). Visual recalibration of auditory speech identification: a McGurk aftereffect. Psychological Science, 14, 592-597]. Here, we examined the build-up course of the after-effects produced by the same two types of bimodal adapters, over a 1-256 range of presentations. The (negative) after-effects of non-ambiguous congruent adapters increased monotonically across that range, while those of ambiguous incongruent adapters followed a curvilinear course, going up and then down with increasing exposure. This pattern is discussed in terms of an asynchronous interaction between recalibration and selective adaptation processes. © 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.SCOPUS: ar.jinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishe