Self-organized model of cascade spreading

We study simultaneous price drops of real stocks and show that for high drop thresholds they follow a power-law distribution. To reproduce these collective downturns, we propose a minimal self-organized model of cascade spreading based on a probabilistic response of the system elements to stress conditions. This model is solvable using the theory of branching processes and the mean-field approximation. For a wide range of parameters, the system is in a critical state and displays a power-law cascade-size distribution similar to the empirically observed one. We further generalize the model to reproduce volatility clustering and other observed properties of real stocks.Comment: 8 pages, 6 figure

Large-scale structure of a nation-wide production network

Production in an economy is a set of firms' activities as suppliers and customers; a firm buys goods from other firms, puts value added and sells products to others in a giant network of production. Empirical study is lacking despite the fact that the structure of the production network is important to understand and make models for many aspects of dynamics in economy. We study a nation-wide production network comprising a million firms and millions of supplier-customer links by using recent statistical methods developed in physics. We show in the empirical analysis scale-free degree distribution, disassortativity, correlation of degree to firm-size, and community structure having sectoral and regional modules. Since suppliers usually provide credit to their customers, who supply it to theirs in turn, each link is actually a creditor-debtor relationship. We also study chains of failures or bankruptcies that take place along those links in the network, and corresponding avalanche-size distribution.Comment: 17 pages with 8 figures; revised section VI and references adde

Collective firm bankruptcies and phase transition in rating dynamics

We present a simple model of firm rating evolution. We consider two sources of defaults: individual dynamics of economic development and Potts-like interactions between firms. We show that such a defined model leads to phase transition, which results in collective defaults. The existence of the collective phase depends on the mean interaction strength. For small interaction strength parameters, there are many independent bankruptcies of individual companies. For large parameters, there are giant collective defaults of firm clusters. In the case when the individual firm dynamics favors dumping of rating changes, there is an optimal strength of the firm's interactions from the systemic risk point of view

Crises and collective socio-economic phenomena: simple models and challenges

Financial and economic history is strewn with bubbles and crashes, booms and busts, crises and upheavals of all sorts. Understanding the origin of these events is arguably one of the most important problems in economic theory. In this paper, we review recent efforts to include heterogeneities and interactions in models of decision. We argue that the Random Field Ising model (RFIM) indeed provides a unifying framework to account for many collective socio-economic phenomena that lead to sudden ruptures and crises. We discuss different models that can capture potentially destabilising self-referential feedback loops, induced either by herding, i.e. reference to peers, or trending, i.e. reference to the past, and account for some of the phenomenology missing in the standard models. We discuss some empirically testable predictions of these models, for example robust signatures of RFIM-like herding effects, or the logarithmic decay of spatial correlations of voting patterns. One of the most striking result, inspired by statistical physics methods, is that Adam Smith's invisible hand can badly fail at solving simple coordination problems. We also insist on the issue of time-scales, that can be extremely long in some cases, and prevent socially optimal equilibria to be reached. As a theoretical challenge, the study of so-called "detailed-balance" violating decision rules is needed to decide whether conclusions based on current models (that all assume detailed-balance) are indeed robust and generic.Comment: Review paper accepted for a special issue of J Stat Phys; several minor improvements along reviewers' comment

Clinicopathological parameters, recurrence, locoregional and distant metastasis in 115 T1-T2 oral squamous cell carcinoma patients

The incidence of oral squamous cell carcinoma remains high. Oral and oro-pharyngeal carcinomas are the sixth most common cancer in the world. Several clinicopathological parameters have been implicated in prognosis, recurrence and survival, following oral squamous cell carcinoma. In this retrospective analysis, clinicopathological parameters of 115 T1/T2 OSCC were studied and compared to recurrence and death from tumour-related causes. The study protocol was approved by the Joint UCL/UCLH committees of the ethics for human research. The patients' data was entered onto proformas, which were validated and checked by interval sampling. The fields included a range of clinical, operative and histopathological variables related to the status of the surgical margins. Data collection also included recurrence, cause of death, date of death and last clinic review. Causes of death were collated in 4 categories (1) death from locoregional spread, (2) death from distant metastasis, (3) death from bronchopulmonary pneumonia, and (4) death from any non-tumour event that lead to cardiorespiratory failure. The patients' population comprised 65 males and 50 females. Their mean age at the 1 diagnosis of OSCC was 61.7 years. Two-thirds of the patients were Caucasians. Primary sites were mainly identified in the tongue, floor of mouth (FOM), buccal mucosa and alveolus. Most of the identified OSCCs were low-risk (T1N0 and T2N0). All patients underwent primary resection neck dissection and reconstruction when necessary. Twenty-two patients needed adjuvant radiotherapy. Pathological analysis revealed that half of the patients had moderately differentiated OSCC. pTNM slightly differed from the cTNM and showed that 70.4% of the patients had low-risk OSCC. Tumour clearance was ultimately achieved in 107 patients. Follow-up resulted in a 3-year survival of 74.8% and a 5-year survival of 72.2%. Recurrence was identified in 23 males and 20 females. The mean age of 1 diagnosis of the recurrence group was 59.53 years. Most common oral sites included the lateral border of tongue and floor of mouth. Recurrence was associated with clinical N-stage disease. The surgical margins in this group was evaluated and found that 17 had non-cohesive invasion, 30 had dysplasia at margin, 21 had vascular invasion, 9 had nerve invasion and 3 had bony invasion. Severe dysplasia was present in 37 patients. Tumour clearance was achieved in only 8 patients. The mean depth of tumour invasion in the recurrence group was 7.6 mm. An interesting finding was that 5/11 patients who died of distant metastasis had their primary disease in the tongue. Nodal disease comparison showed that 8/10 patients who died of locoregional metastasis and 8/11 patients who died from distant metastasis had clinical nodal involvement. Comparing this to pathological nodal disease (pTNM) showed that 10/10 patients and 10/11 patients who died from locoregional and distant metastasis, respectively, had nodal disease. All patients who died from locoregional and distant metastasis were shown to have recurrence after the primary tumour resection. Squamous cell carcinoma of the oral cavity has a poor overall prognosis with a high tendency to recur at the primary site and extend to involve the cervical lymph nodes. Several clinicopathological parameters can be employed to assess outcome, recurrence and overall survival. © 2010 Jerjes et al; licensee BioMed Central Ltd

Influence of fibre reinforcement on the geotechnical properties of fly ash

W artykule przedstawiono wyniki badań zagęszczalności, wytrzymałości na ścinanie i nośności popiołu lotnego pochodzącego ze spalania węgla kamiennego w Elektrowni „Skawina” z dodatkiem zbrojenia rozproszonego. Do badań użyto uszlachetnionych włókien (ang. Fibrofor High Grade) w ilości od 0,1 do 1,0%(m/m). Analiza wyników badań pozwala stwierdzić, że popiół lotny cechuje się korzystnymi parametrami zagęszczalności, wytrzymałości na ścinanie oraz nośności przy wilgotności zbliżonej do optymalnej, jednak po nasączeniu wodą praktycznie utracił nośność. Zastosowanie zbrojenia rozproszonego spowodowało dość wyraźne zwiększenie wskaźnika nośności i parametrów wytrzymałości na ścinanie oraz ograniczenie pęcznienia (zwłaszcza przy dużym obciążeniu), nie wpłynęło to jednak w sposób istotny na polepszenie jego właściwości geotechnicznych.The paper presents results of an investigation into the compactibility, shear strength and bearing capacity of fly ash from combustion of coal in the Power Plant „Skawina” with fibre reinforcement added. Improved Fibrofor High Grade fibers in the amount from 0.1 up to the 1.0% were used for the tests. An analysis of the results shows that the fly ash was characterized by the favourable parameters of compactibility, shear strength and bearing capacity at the moisture content close to the optimum one, but after soaking in water, almost lost the capacity. The use of the fibre reinforcement resulted in a fairly significant increase in the CBR ratio and shear strength parameters and reduction of swelling, but it did not improve significantly its geotechnical properties

The Lehman Brothers effect and bankruptcy cascades

Inspired by the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers and its consequences on the global financial system, we develop a simple model in which the Lehman default event is quantified as having an almost immediate effect in worsening the credit worthiness of all financial institutions in the economic network. In our stylized description, all properties of a given firm are captured by its effective credit rating, which follows a simple dynamics of co-evolution with the credit ratings of the other firms in our economic network. The dynamics resembles the evolution of Potts spin-glass with external global field corresponding to a panic effect in the economy. The existence of a global phase transition, between paramagnetic and ferromagnetic phases, explains the large susceptibility of the system to negative shocks. We show that bailing out the first few defaulting firms does not solve the problem, but does have the effect of alleviating considerably the global shock, as measured by the fraction of firms that are not defaulting as a consequence. This beneficial effect is the counterpart of the large vulnerability of the system of coupled firms, which are both the direct consequences of the collective self-organized endogenous behaviors of the credit ratings of the firms in our economic network

Pulsars in safety of transport

W artykule przedstawiono problemy związane z wpływem metod pozycjonowania na bezpieczeństwo transportu, w szczególności transportu morskiego - przewozów morskich i operacji oceanotechnicznych. Omówiono stosowane obecnie metody określania pozycji statków oraz możliwości wykorzystania pulsarów w nowoczesnej astronawigacji.The article presents the issues related to the impact of positioning methods on safety of transport, especially maritime transport - shipping and ocean engineering operations. The contemporary methods of vessels positioning and possible use of pulsars in modern celestial navigation are discussed