"How Far Can U.S. Equity Prices Fall Under Asset and Debt Deflation"

Equity prices have been falling since March 2000. How far can they fall before they reach bottom? The current bear market differs from the mid-1970s plunge in equity prices in terms of the causes and, consequently, the factors that should be monitored to test its progress. In the 1970s, the bear market was caused by soaring inflation resulting from a surge in the price of oil. It eroded households' real disposable income and corporate profits. That was a supply-led business cycle. Now, the bear market is caused by asset and debt deflation triggered by the burst of the "new economy" bubble. This working paper argues that on current economic fundamentals, the Standard & Poor's (S&P) index is fairly valued at 871, but the fair value may fall if the economy has a double-dip recession that triggers a property market crash. We suggest that the U.S. economy is heading for such a recession, as the poor prospects of the corporate sector are affecting the real disposable income of the personal sector. The forces that drive the economy back to recession are related to imbalances in the corporate and personal sectors that have started infecting the balance sheet of the commercial banks. The final stage of the asset-and-debt-deflation process involves a spiral between banks and the nonbank private sector (personal and corporate). Banks cut lending to the nonbank private sector, creating a credit crunch that worsens the economic health of the latter, which is reflected subsequently as a further deterioration of banks' balance sheets.

Real-time ultrasound-guided catheterisation of the internal jugular vein: a prospective comparison with the landmark technique in critical care patients

INTRODUCTION: Central venous cannulation is crucial in the management of the critical care patient. This study was designed to evaluate whether real-time ultrasound-guided cannulation of the internal jugular vein is superior to the standard landmark method. METHODS: In this randomised study, 450 critical care patients who underwent real-time ultrasound-guided cannulation of the internal jugular vein were prospectively compared with 450 critical care patients in whom the landmark technique was used. Randomisation was performed by means of a computer-generated random-numbers table, and patients were stratified with regard to age, gender, and body mass index. RESULTS: There were no significant differences in gender, age, body mass index, or side of cannulation (left or right) or in the presence of risk factors for difficult venous cannulation such as prior catheterisation, limited sites for access attempts, previous difficulties during catheterisation, previous mechanical complication, known vascular abnormality, untreated coagulopathy, skeletal deformity, and cannulation during cardiac arrest between the two groups of patients. Furthermore, the physicians who performed the procedures had comparable experience in the placement of central venous catheters (p = non-significant). Cannulation of the internal jugular vein was achieved in all patients by using ultrasound and in 425 of the patients (94.4%) by using the landmark technique (p < 0.001). Average access time (skin to vein) and number of attempts were significantly reduced in the ultrasound group of patients compared with the landmark group (p < 0.001). In the landmark group, puncture of the carotid artery occurred in 10.6% of patients, haematoma in 8.4%, haemothorax in 1.7%, pneumothorax in 2.4%, and central venous catheter-associated blood stream infection in 16%, which were all significantly increased compared with the ultrasound group (p < 0.001). CONCLUSION: The present data suggest that ultrasound-guided catheterisation of the internal jugular vein in critical care patients is superior to the landmark technique and therefore should be the method of choice in these patients

Reversal of isolated unilateral optic nerve edema with concomitant visual impairment following blunt trauma: a case report

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Introduction</p> <p>Serious injury to the optic nerve is an uncommon entity but may result in permanent visual disability. Isolated trauma of the optic nerve is usually associated with blunt skull trauma involving fractures of both skull and optic canal, but may also occur from blunt ocular trauma.</p> <p>Case presentation</p> <p>We report a woman who developed isolated unilateral optic nerve edema with corresponding visual deficits after a rear-end collision accident. She was treated with corticosteroids and had a favourable outcome.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The approach described here was successful in this case but the current body of evidence still lacks a validated approach to the management of traumatic optic neuropathy and each case needs to be individually assessed.</p

CD8+ lymphocytes/ tumour-budding index: an independent prognostic factor representing a ‘pro-/anti-tumour' approach to tumour host interaction in colorectal cancer

BACKGROUND: The tumour-host interaction at the invasive front of colorectal cancer, including the epithelial-mesenchymal transition and its hallmark 'tumour budding', is an important area of investigation in terms of prognosis. The aim of this study was to determine the prognostic impact of a 'pro-/anti-tumour' approach defined by an established 'pro-tumour' (tumour budding) and host-related 'anti-tumour' factor of the adaptive immunological microenvironment (CD8+ lymphocytes). METHODS: Double immunostaining for CK22/CD8 on whole tissue sections (n=279; Cohort 1) and immunohistochemistry for CD8+ using tissue microarrays (n=191; Cohort 2) was carried out. Tumour buds, CD8+ and CD8+ T-lymphocytes : tumour buds indices were evaluated per high-power field. RESULTS: In Cohort 1, a low-CD8+/ buds index was associated with lymph node metastasis (P>0.001), vascular invasion (P=0.009), worse survival in univariate (P>0.001) and multivariable (P>0.001) analysis, and furthermore in lymph node-negative patients (P=0.002). In Cohort 2, the CD8+/ buds index was associated with T stage (P>0.001), N stage (P=0.041), vascular invasion (P=0.005) and survival in patients with TNM stage II (P=0.019), stage III (P=0.004), and adjuvantly untreated (P=0.009) and treated patients (P>0.001). CONCLUSION: The CD8+ lymphocyte : tumour-budding index is an independent prognostic factor in colorectal cancer and a promising approach for a future prognostic score for patients with this disease

New materials and devices for preventing catheter-related infections

Catheters are the leading source of bloodstream infections for patients in the intensive care unit (ICU). Comprehensive unit-based programs have proven to be effective in decreasing catheter-related bloodstream infections (CR-BSIs). ICU rates of CR-BSI higher than 2 per 1,000 catheter-days are no longer acceptable. The locally adapted list of preventive measures should include skin antisepsis with an alcoholic preparation, maximal barrier precautions, a strict catheter maintenance policy, and removal of unnecessary catheters. The development of new technologies capable of further decreasing the now low CR-BSI rate is a major challenge. Recently, new materials that decrease the risk of skin-to-vein bacterial migration, such as new antiseptic dressings, were extensively tested. Antimicrobial-coated catheters can prevent CR-BSI but have a theoretical risk of selecting resistant bacteria. An antimicrobial or antiseptic lock may prevent bacterial migration from the hub to the bloodstream. This review discusses the available knowledge about these new technologies

Oral squamous cell cancer: early detection and the role of alcohol and smoking

Objective: Oral squamous cell carcinoma has a remarkable incidence worldwide and a fairly onerous prognosis, encouraging further research on factors that might modify disease outcome. Data sources: A web-based search for all types of articles published was initiated using Medline/Pub Med, with the key words such as oral cancer, alcohol consumption, genetic polymorphisms, tobacco smoking and prevention. The search was restricted to articles published in English, with no publication date restriction (last update 2010). Review Methods: In this review article, we approach the factors for a cytologic diagnosis during OSCC development and the markers used in modern diagnostic technologies as well. We also reviewed available studies of the combined effects of alcohol drinking and genetic polymorphisms on alcohol-related cancer risk. Results: The interaction of smoking and alcohol significantly increases the risk for aero-digestive cancers. The interaction between smoking and alcohol consumption seems to be responsible for a significant amount of disease. Conclusion: Published scientific data show promising pathways for the future development of more effective prognosis. There is a clear need for new prognostic indicators, which could be used in diagnostics and, therefore a better selection of the most effective treatment can be achieved