Approaches to displaying information to assist decisions under uncertainty

The estimation of the costs of a product or project and the decisions based on these forecasts are subject to much uncertainty relating to factors like unknown future developments. This has been addressed repeatedly in research studies focusing on different aspects of uncertainty; unfortunately, this interest has not yet been adopted in practice. One reason can be found in the inadequate representation of uncertainty. This paper introduces an experiment, which engages different approaches to displaying cost forecasting information to gauge the consideration of uncertainty in the subsequent decision-making process. Three different approaches of displaying cost-forecasting information including the uncertainty involved in the data were tested, namely a three point trend forecast, a bar chart, and a FAN-diagram. Furthermore, the effects of using different levels of contextual information about the decision problem were examined. The results show that decision makers tend to simplify the level of uncertainty from a possible range of future outcomes to the limited form of a point estimate. Furthermore, the contextual information made the participants more aware of uncertainty. In addition, the fan-diagram prompted 75.0% of the participants to consider uncertainty even if they had not used this type of diagram before; it was therefore identified as the most suitable method of graphical information display for encouraging decision makers to consider the uncertainty in cost forecasting

Data Safe Havens in health research and healthcare.

Motivation: The data that put the ‘evidence’ into ‘evidence-based medicine’ are central to developments in public health, primary and hospital care. A fundamental challenge is to site such data in repositories that can easily be accessed under appropriate technical and governance controls which are effectively audited and are viewed as trustworthy by diverse stakeholders. This demands socio-technical solutions that may easily become enmeshed in protracted debate and controversy as they encounter the norms, values, expectations and concerns of diverse stakeholders. In this context, the development of what are called ‘Data Safe Havens’ has been crucial. Unfortunately, the origins and evolution of the term have led to a range of different definitions being assumed by different groups. There is, however, an intuitively meaningful interpretation that is often assumed by those who have not previously encountered the term: a repository in which useful but potentially sensitive data may be kept securely under governance and informatics systems that are fit-for-purpose and appropriately tailored to the nature of the data being maintained, and may be accessed and utilized by legitimate users undertaking work and research contributing to biomedicine, health and/or to ongoing development of healthcare systems. Results: This review explores a fundamental question: ‘what are the specific criteria that ought reasonably to be met by a data repository if it is to be seen as consistent with this interpretation and viewed as worthy of being accorded the status of ‘Data Safe Haven’ by key stakeholders’? We propose 12 such criteria