Fundamental investigation of ultraviolet radiation effects in polymeric film-forming materials

A literature search from 1958 to present was conducted on the effect of ultraviolet radiation on polymeric materials, with particular emphasis on vacuum photolysis, mechanisms of degradation, and energy transfer phenomena. The literature from 1958 to 1968 was searched manually, while the literature from 1968 to present was searched by using a computerized keyword system. The primary objective was to provide the necessary background information for the design of new or modified materials with improved stability to the vacuum-radiation environment of space

Macro-Risks: The Challenge for Rational Risk Regulation

Drawing on the recent financial crisis, we introduce the concept of macro-risk. We distinguish between micro-risks, which can be managed within conventional economic frameworks, and macro-risks, which threaten to disrupt economic systems so much that a different approach is required. We argue that catastrophic climate change is a prime example of a macro-risk. Research by climate scientists suggests disturbingly high likelihoods of temperature increases and sea level rises that could cause the kinds of systemic failures that almost occurred with the financial system. We suggest that macro-risks should be the principal concern of rational risk assessment and management, but they are not. The principal analytical tool, cost-benefit analysis using expected values, is far less valuable for addressing macro-risks than micro-risks because it fails to adequately treat tail-risks that are capable of disrupting the entire economy. We note the difficulty of assessing and responding to macro-risks such as catastrophic climate change, and we offer several proposals for improving macro-risk assessment methods and the information available to policy makers

Forks in the Road

This Essay outlines a simple heuristic that will enable public and private policymakers to focus on the most important climate change mitigation strategies. Policymakers face a dizzying array of information, pressure from advocacy groups, and policy options, and it is easy to lose sight of the forest for the trees. Many policy options are attractive on the surface but either fail to meaningfully address the problem or are unlikely to be adopted in the foreseeable future. If policymakers make the right decision when confronting three essential choices or forks in the road, though, the result will be 60% to 70% reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, an amount that will keep widely-adopted climate mitigation goals in reach. The three options are decarbonization of the electrical grid, electrification of the motor vehicle fleet, and electrification of buildings. International, national, and subnational officials, philanthropists, corporate executives, advocacy group leaders, and households all have the ability to prioritize these three options in their regulatory, purchasing, and other actions. If they choose these three decarbonatization options, many other mistakes can be made without jeopardizing the achievement of widely adopted emissions targets. If they make the wrong choice, however, few combinations of other viable options can achieve the necessary reductions. In the face of a growing consensus that immediate, major emissions reductions are required, the forks in the road heuristic can provide policymakers with the framework necessary to make smart decisions and ignore the noise surrounding climate law and policy

Beyond Wickedness: Managing Complex Systems and Climate Change

This Article examines the argument that climate change is a super wicked problem. It concludes that the wicked problem concept is best viewed as a rhetorical device that served a valuable function in arguing against technocratic hubris in the early 1970s but is unhelpful and possibly counterproductive as a tool for modern climate policy analysis. Richard Lazarus improved on this analysis by emphasizing the urgency of a climate response in his characterization of the climate problem as super wicked. We suggest another approach based on Charles Lindblom\u27s science of muddling through. The muddling through approach supports the rhetorical points for which the original wicked problem concept was introduced and provides greater practical guidance for developing new laws and policies to address climate change and other complex and messy environmental problems

Beyond Gridlock

Private climate governance can achieve major greenhouse gas (“GHG”) emissions reductions while governments are in gridlock. Despite the optimism that emerged from the Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil in 1992, almost a quarter century later the federal legislative process and international climate negotiations are years from a comprehensive response. Yet Microsoft, Google and many other companies have committed to become carbon neutral. Wal-Mart has partnered with the Environmental Defense Fund to secure 20 million tons of GHG emissions reductions from its suppliers around the world, an amount equal to almost half the emissions from the US iron and steel industry. Investors holding roughly $90 trillion in assets have pressured large corporations to disclose and reduce their carbon footprints, and participating companies report having reduced emissions by an amount equal to a major emitting nation. Private forest certification programs have taken steps to reduce the GHG emissions from deforestation. Household carbon regulation is off the table in many countries, but private advocacy groups and corporations have reduced household emissions through home energy disclosure, eco-driving campaigns, employee programs, voluntary carbon offsets, and other initiatives. To explain the importance of private climate governance, this Article is structured around three propositions. The first is the need for urgency... The second proposition is that the barriers to adopting and implementing a carbon price are unlikely to be overcome in the next decade... The third proposition is that unlocking the potential of private governance will require a conceptual shift by scholars, philanthropists, and corporate and NGO managers... Private initiatives cannot keep global emissions on track to achieve the most widely adopted climate target, but they can achieve a private governance wedge: they can reduce emissions by roughly 1,000 million tons (a gigaton) of CO2 per year between 2016 and 2025. When combined with other efforts, this private governance wedge offers a reasonable chance of buying a decade to resolve the current government gridlock

Essay: Forks In the Road

This Essay outlines a simple heuristic that will enable public and private policymakers to focus on the most important climate change mitigation strategies. Policymakers face a dizzying array of information, pressure from advocacy groups, and policy options, and it is easy to lose sight of the forest for the trees. Many policy options are attractive on the surface but either fail to meaningfully address the problem or are unlikely to be adopted in the foreseeable future. If policymakers make the right decision when confronting three essential choices or forks in the road, though, the result will be 60% to 70% reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, an amount that will keep widely-adopted climate mitigation goals in reach. The three options are decarbonization of the electrical grid, electrification of the motor vehicle fleet, and electrification of buildings. International, national, and subnational officials, philanthropists, corporate executives, advocacy group leaders, and households all have the ability to prioritize these three options in their regulatory, purchasing, and other actions. If they choose these three decarbonatization options, many other mistakes can be made without jeopardizing the achievement of widely adopted emissions targets. If they make the wrong choice, however, few combinations of other viable options can achieve the necessary reductions. In the face of a growing consensus that immediate, major emissions reductions are required, the forks in the road heuristic can provide policymakers with the framework necessary to make smart decisions and ignore the noise surrounding climate law and policy