Bayesian Learning and Predictability in a Stochastic Nonlinear Dynamical Model

Bayesian inference methods are applied within a Bayesian hierarchical modelling framework to the problems of joint state and parameter estimation, and of state forecasting. We explore and demonstrate the ideas in the context of a simple nonlinear marine biogeochemical model. A novel approach is proposed to the formulation of the stochastic process model, in which ecophysiological properties of plankton communities are represented by autoregressive stochastic processes. This approach captures the effects of changes in plankton communities over time, and it allows the incorporation of literature metadata on individual species into prior distributions for process model parameters. The approach is applied to a case study at Ocean Station Papa, using Particle Markov chain Monte Carlo computational techniques. The results suggest that, by drawing on objective prior information, it is possible to extract useful information about model state and a subset of parameters, and even to make useful long-term forecasts, based on sparse and noisy observations

Characterization of the CBC2 readout ASIC for the CMS strip-tracker high-luminosity upgrade

The CMS Binary Chip 2 (CBC2) is a full-scale prototype ASIC developed for the front-end readout of the high-luminosity upgrade of the CMS silicon strip tracker. The 254-channel, 130 nm CMOS ASIC is designed for the binary readout of double-layer modules, and features cluster-width discrimination and coincidence logic for detecting high-PT track candidates. The chip was delivered in January 2013 and has since been bump-bonded to a dual-chip hybrid and extensively tested. The CBC2 is fully functional and working to specification: we present the result of electrical characterization of the chip, including gain, noise, threshold scan and power consumption, together with the performance of the stub finding logic. Finally we will outline the plan for future developments towards the production version

The survival and destruction of X-ray coronae of early-type galaxies in the rich cluster environments: a case study of Abell 1367

A new Chandra observation of the northwest region of the galaxy cluster A1367 reveals four cool galaxy coronae (0.4 - 1.0 keV) embedded in the hot intracluster medium (ICM) (5 - 6 keV). While the large coronae of NGC 3842 and NGC 3837 appear symmetric and relaxed, the galaxy coronae of the \lsim L* galaxies (NGC 3841 and CGCG 97090) are disturbed and being stripped. Massive galaxies, with dense cooling cores, are better able to resist ram pressure stripping and survive in rich environments than \lsim L* galaxies whose galactic coronae are much less dense. The survival of these cool coronae implies that thermal conduction from the hot surrounding ICM has to be suppressed by a factor of at least 60, at the corona boundary. Within the galaxy coronae of NGC 3842 and NGC 3837, stellar mass loss or heat conduction with the Spitzer value may be sufficient to balance radiative cooling. Energy deposition at the ends of collimated jets may heat the outer coronae, but allow the survival of a small, dense gas core (e.g., NGC 3842 in A1367 and NGC 4874 in Coma). The survived X-ray coronae become significantly smaller and fainter with the increasing ambient pressure.Comment: 11 pages, 7 figures, emulateapj5, accepted by Ap

Search for new particles in events with one lepton and missing transverse momentum in pp collisions at s√ = 8 TeV with the ATLAS detector

This paper presents a search for new particles in events with one lepton (electron or muon) and missing transverse momentum using 20.3 fb−1 of proton-proton collision data at s√ = 8 TeV recorded by the ATLAS experiment at the Large Hadron Collider. No significant excess beyond Standard Model expectations is observed. A W ′ with Sequential Standard Model couplings is excluded at the 95% confidence level for masses up to 3.24 TeV. Excited chiral bosons (W *) with equivalent coupling strengths are excluded for masses up to 3.21 TeV. In the framework of an effective field theory limits are also set on the dark matter-nucleon scattering cross-section as well as the mass scale M * of the unknown mediating interaction for dark matter pair production in association with a leptonically decaying W

Search for supersymmetry at √s= 8 TeV in final states with jets and two same-sign leptons or three leptons with the ATLAS detector

A search for strongly produced supersymmetric particles is conducted using signatures involving multiple energetic jets and either two isolated leptons (e or μ) with the same electric charge, or at least three isolated leptons. The search also utilises jets originating from b-quarks, missing transverse momentum and other observables to extend its sensitivity. The analysis uses a data sample corresponding to a total integrated luminosity of 20.3 fb-1 of √s = 8 TeV proton-proton collisions recorded with the ATLAS detector at the Large Hadron Collider in 2012. No deviation from the Standard Model expectation is observed. New or significantly improved exclusion limits are set on a wide variety of supersymmetric models in which the lightest squark can be of the first, second or third generations, and in which R-parity can be conserved or violated

Measurement of the production of a W boson in association with a charm quark in pp collisions at s√ = 7 TeV with the ATLAS detector

The production of a W boson in association with a single charm quark is studied using 4.6 fb−1 of pp collision data at s√ = 7 TeV collected with the ATLAS detector at the Large Hadron Collider. In events in which a W boson decays to an electron or muon, the charm quark is tagged either by its semileptonic decay to a muon or by the presence of a charmed meson. The integrated and differential cross sections as a function of the pseudorapidity of the lepton from the W-boson decay are measured. Results are compared to the predictions of next-to-leading-order QCD calculations obtained from various parton distribution function parameterisations. The ratio of the strange-to-down sea-quark distributions is determined to be 0.96+0.26−0.30 at Q 2 = 1.9 GeV2, which supports the hypothesis of an SU(3)-symmetric composition of the light-quark sea. Additionally, the cross-section ratio σ(W + + c¯)/σ(W − + c) is compared to the predictions obtained using parton distribution function parameterisations with different assumptions about the s−s¯ quark asymmetry

Search for quantum black hole production in high-invariant-mass lepton + jet final states using pp collisions at √s = 8 TeV and the ATLAS detector

A search is reported for a neutral Higgs boson in the decay channel H→Zγ, Z→ℓ +ℓ - (ℓ = e, μ), using 4.5 fb-1 of pp collisions at s=7 TeV and 20.3 fb-1 of pp collisions at s=8 TeV, recorded by the ATLAS detector at the CERN Large Hadron Collider. The observed distribution of the invariant mass of the three final-state particles, mℓℓγ, is consistent with the Standard Model hypothesis in the investigated mass range of 120-150 GeV. For a Higgs boson with a mass of 125.5 GeV, the observed upper limit at the 95% confidence level is 11 times the Standard Model expectation. Upper limits are set on the cross section times branching ratio of a neutral Higgs boson with mass in the range 120-150 GeV between 0.13 and 0.5 pb for s=8 TeV at 95% confidence level

“I Did It My Way”: Moving Away from the Tyranny of Turn-by-Turn Pedestrian Navigation

No abstract available

Chandra Measurements of a Complete Sample of X-ray Luminous Galaxy Clusters: The Luminosity-Mass Relation

We present the results of work involving a statistically complete sample of 34 galaxy clusters, in the redshift range 0.15$\le$z$\le$0.3 observed with $Chandra$. We investigate the luminosity-mass ($LM$) relation for the cluster sample, with the masses obtained via a full hydrostatic mass analysis. We utilise a method to fully account for selection biases when modeling the $LM$ relation, and find that the $LM$ relation is significantly different than the relation modelled when not account for selection effects. We find that the luminosity of our clusters is 2.2$\pm$0.4 times higher (when accounting for selection effects) than the average for a given mass, its mass is 30% lower than the population average for a given luminosity. Equivalently, using the $LM$ relation measured from this sample without correcting for selection biases would lead to the underestimation by 40% of the average mass of a cluster with a given luminosity. Comparing the hydrostatic masses to mass estimates determined from the $Y_{X}$ parameter, we find that they are entirely consistent, irrespective of the dynamical state of the cluster.Comment: 31 pages, 43 figures, accepted for publication in MNRA

Search for direct pair production of the top squark in all-hadronic final states in proton-proton collisions at √s=8 TeV with the ATLAS detector

The results of a search for direct pair production of the scalar partner to the top quark using an integrated luminosity of 20.1 fb−1 of proton-proton collision data at s√ = 8 TeV recorded with the ATLAS detector at the LHC are reported. The top squark is assumed to decay via t¯ →tχ¯01 or t¯ →bχ¯±1 →bW(∗)χ¯01, where χ¯01 (χ¯±1) denotes the lightest neutralino (chargino) in supersymmetric models. The search targets a fully-hadronic final state in events with four or more jets and large missing transverse momentum. No significant excess over the Standard Model background prediction is observed, and exclusion limits are reported in terms of the top squark and neutralino masses and as a function of the branching fraction of t¯ →tχ¯01. For a branching fraction of 100%, top squark masses in the range 270–645 GeV are excluded for χ¯01 masses below 30 GeV. For a branching fraction of 50% to either t¯ →tχ¯01 or t¯ →bχ¯±1, and assuming the χ¯±1 mass to be twice the χ¯01 mass, top squark masses in the range 250–550 GeV are excluded for χ¯01 masses below 60 GeV