Macroeconomic models of consumer demand for consumer packaged goods in Asia

Thesis (M. Eng. in Logistics)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Engineering Systems Division, 2012.Cataloged from PDF version of thesis.Includes bibliographical references (p. 90-92).CPGCo, a global manufacturer of consumer packaged goods, has had tremendous difficulty in producing accurate forecasts for its products in developing markets. The problem was especially apparent during the global economic crisis in 2008, which caused demand for its products to become highly volatile. Its troubles have been aggravated by its long forecasting horizon, as it has not been able to adjust quickly enough to rapid market shifts due to fluctuations in various macroeconomic indicators. As a result, CPGCo faces heavy stockouts and excess inventories. This thesis explores the suitability of using macroeconomic indicators to forecast consumer demand for three developing countries in Asia as well as three separate product segments. A total of 27 macroeconomic models are constructed using stepwise multiple linear regression analysis employing three separate dependent variables: the firm's monthly wholesale shipment volume, retail market share by volume, and retail sales. The world oil price and country-specific exchange rates, stock indexes, interest rates, consumer price indexes, and consumer confidence indicators are used as independent variables. With our models, we are capable of producing extremely accurate forecasts for a small sample set with errors at or below 7.2%. Our findings also indicate that the consumer price index has the most influence on consumer demand, appearing in 81% of our models; thus, we recommend that CPGCo tracks the consumer price index of each country to complement its current forecasting processes.by Jonathan Mau and Bryan P. McFadden.M.Eng.in Logistic

Particle-particle random phase approximation applied to Beryllium isotopes

This work is dedicated to the study of even-even 8-14 Be isotopes using the particle-particle Random Phase Approximation that accounts for two-body correlations in the core nucleus. A better description of energies and two-particle amplitudes is obtained in comparison with models assuming a neutron closed-shell (or subshell) core. A Wood-Saxon potential corrected by a phenomenological particle-vibration coupling term has been used for the neutron-core interaction and the D1S Gogny force for the neutron-neutron interaction. Calculated ground state properties as well as excited state ones are discussed and compared to experimental data. In particular, results suggest the same 2s_1/2-1p_1/2 shell inversion in 13Be as in 11Be.Comment: to appear in Phys. Rev.

Ultrahigh sensitivity of slow-light gyroscope

Slow light generated by Electromagnetically Induced Transparency is extremely susceptible with respect to Doppler detuning. Consequently, slow-light gyroscopes should have ultrahigh sensitivity

Light Rays at Optical Black Holes in Moving Media

Light experiences a non-uniformly moving medium as an effective gravitational field, endowed with an effective metric tensor $\tilde{g}^{\mu \nu}=\eta^{\mu \nu}+(n^2-1)u^\mu u^\nu$, $n$ being the refractive index and $u^\mu$ the four-velocity of the medium. Leonhardt and Piwnicki [Phys. Rev. A {\bf 60}, 4301 (1999)] argued that a flowing dielectric fluid of this kind can be used to generate an 'optical black hole'. In the Leonhardt-Piwnicki model, only a vortex flow was considered. It was later pointed out by Visser [Phys. Rev. Lett. {\bf 85}, 5252 (2000)] that in order to form a proper optical black hole containing an event horizon, it becomes necessary to add an inward radial velocity component to the vortex flow. In the present paper we undertake this task: we consider a full spiral flow, consisting of a vortex component plus a radially infalling component. Light propagates in such a dielectric medium in a way similar to that occurring around a rotating black hole. We calculate, and show graphically, the effective potential versus the radial distance from the vortex singularity, and show that the spiral flow can always capture light in both a positive, and a negative, inverse impact parameter interval. The existence of a genuine event horizon is found to depend on the strength of the radial flow, relative to the strength of the azimuthal flow. A limitation of our fluid model is that it is nondispersive.Comment: 30 pages, LaTeX, 4 ps figures. Expanded discussion especially in section 6; 5 new references. Version to appear in Phys. Rev.

Recent advances in the theory of nuclear forces

After a brief historical review, we present recent progress in our understanding of nuclear forces in terms of chiral effective field theory.Comment: 6 pages, 2 figures; talk at International Symposium on Correlations Dynamics in Nuclei, University of Tokyo, Japan, 31 January-4 February, 200

Effects of soft contact lenses as an alternative to topical anesthesia when utilizing the pneuma-tonometer

The purpose of this study was two-fold. We attempted to determine if valid intraocular pressure readings could be obtained when utilizing the Digilab Pneuma-tonometer over a soft contact lens in place of an anesthetic on a patient\u27s eye. We also attempted to determine the nature of any difference in patient sensation between utilizing the tonometer with a soft lens versus utilization with a topical corneal anesthetic. Our results indicated that soft lenses allow accurate readings over a range of normal pressures. We also found that no significant difference in sensation existed between the two conditions (contact lens versus anesthetic). We found that utilizing a soft lens during the tonometric procedure was surprisingly uncomplicated, even on inexperienced patients. The results of this study suggest that the technique of utilizing soft lenses with the Pneuma-Tonometer is practical and will yield valid readings over a normal range of pressures

C-Lobe of Lactoferrin: The Whole Story of the Half-Molecule

Lactoferrin is an iron-binding diferric glycoprotein present in most of the exocrine secretions. The major role of lactoferrin, which is found abundantly in colostrum, is antimicrobial action for the defense of mammary gland and the neonates. Lactoferrin consists of two equal halves, designated as N-lobe and C-lobe, each of which contains one iron-binding site. While the N-lobe of lactoferrin has been extensively studied and is known for its enhanced antimicrobial effect, the C-lobe of lactoferrin mediates various therapeutic functions which are still being discovered. The potential of the C-lobe in the treatment of gastropathy, diabetes, and corneal wounds and injuries has been indicated. This review provides the details of the proteolytic preparation of C-lobe, and interspecies comparisons of its sequence and structure, as well as the scope of its therapeutic applications

Double and triple sequential shocks reduce ventricular defibrillation threshold in dogs with and without myocardial infarction

The role of optimal placement of electrodes and mode of shock delivery from a defibrillator was examined in dogs with and without myocardial infarction. Single, double and triple truncated exponential shocks separated by 1 ms were delivered through various electrode combinations and cardiac vectors after electrical induction of ventricular fibrillation. A single shock through a pathway not incorporating the interventricular septum (catheter electrodes or epicardial patches between anterior and posterior left ventricle) required the highest total energy (22.6 and > 26.4 J, respectively) and peak voltage (1,004 and > 1,094 V, respectively) to terminate ventricular fibrillation. A single shock through a pathway including the interventricular septum required lower total energy and peak voltage to defibrillate.Combinations of two sequential shocks between an intracardiac catheter electrode and anterior left ventricular epicardial patch, between the catheter electrode and subcutaneous extrathoracic plate and between three ventricular epicardial patches all significantly reduced total energy (7.7, 8.7 and 7.8 J, respectively) and peak voltage (424, 436 and 424 V, respectively) needed to defibrillate. Three sequential shocks exerted no significant additional reduction in total energy of the defibrillation threshold than did two sequential shocks. In-farcted canine heart required less peak voltage but not total energy to terminate ventricular fibrillation than did noninfarcted heart. Therefore, two sequential shocks over different pathways reduce both total energy and peak voltage required to terminate ventricular fibrillation

First Penning-trap mass measurement in the millisecond half-life range: the exotic halo nucleus 11Li

In this letter, we report a new mass for $^{11}$Li using the trapping experiment TITAN at TRIUMF's ISAC facility. This is by far the shortest-lived nuclide, $t_{1/2} = 8.8 \rm{ms}$, for which a mass measurement has ever been performed with a Penning trap. Combined with our mass measurements of $^{8,9}$Li we derive a new two-neutron separation energy of 369.15(65) keV: a factor of seven more precise than the best previous value. This new value is a critical ingredient for the determination of the halo charge radius from isotope-shift measurements. We also report results from state-of-the-art atomic-physics calculations using the new mass and extract a new charge radius for $^{11}$Li. This result is a remarkable confluence of nuclear and atomic physics.Comment: Formatted for submission to PR