2,167 research outputs found
Central European foreign exchange markets: a cross-spectral analysis of the 2007 financial crisis
This paper investigates co-movements between currency markets of Czech Republic, Poland, Hungary, Slovakia and the Euro in the year following the drying up of money markets in August 2007. The paper shows that assessing the degree of foreign currency co-movement by correlation can lead to concluding, erroneously, that financial contagion has not occurred. Using cross-spectral methods, the paper shows that defining contagion as changes in the structure of co-movements of asset prices encompasses more of the complex nature of exchange rate dynamics. What is shown is that, following August 2007, there is increased in the intensity of co-movements, but non-linearly. Focusing on the activities of a mix of banks and currency managers, it is suggested that changes in the structure of currency interaction present an unfavourable view of the contagion experienced by at least three of these currencies
Portraits of Complex Networks
We propose a method for characterizing large complex networks by introducing
a new matrix structure, unique for a given network, which encodes structural
information; provides useful visualization, even for very large networks; and
allows for rigorous statistical comparison between networks. Dynamic processes
such as percolation can be visualized using animations. Applications to graph
theory are discussed, as are generalizations to weighted networks, real-world
network similarity testing, and applicability to the graph isomorphism problem.Comment: 6 pages, 9 figure
Spin measurements for 147Sm+n resonances: Further evidence for non-statistical effects
We have determined the spins J of resonances in the 147Sm(n,gamma) reaction
by measuring multiplicities of gamma-ray cascades following neutron capture.
Using this technique, we were able to determine J values for all but 14 of the
140 known resonances below En = 1 keV, including 41 firm J assignments for
resonances whose spins previously were either unknown or tentative. These new
spin assignments, together with previously determined resonance parameters,
allowed us to extract separate level spacings and neutron strength functions
for J = 3 and 4 resonances. Furthermore, several statistical test of the data
indicate that very few resonances of either spin have been missed below En =
700eV. Because a non-statistical effect recently was reported near En = 350 eV
from an analysis of 147Sm(n,alpha) data, we divided the data into two regions;
0 < En < 350 eV and 350 < En < 700 eV. Using neutron widths from a previous
measurement and published techniques for correcting for missed resonances and
for testing whether data are consistent with a Porter-Thomas distribution, we
found that the reduced-neutron-width distribution for resonances below 350 eV
is consistent with the expected Porter-Thomas distribution. On the other hand,
we found that reduced-neutron-width data in the 350 < En < 700 eV region are
inconsistent with a Porter-Thomas distribution, but in good agreement with a
chi-squared distribution having two or more degrees of freedom. We discuss
possible explanations for these observed non-statistical effects and their
possible relation to similar effects previously observed in other nuclides.Comment: 40 pages, 13 figures, accepted by Phys. Rev.
High connectivity among locally adapted populations of a marine fish (Menidia menidia)
Author Posting. © Ecological Society of America, 2010. This article is posted here by permission of Ecological Society of America for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Ecology 91 (2010): 3526â3537, doi:10.1890/09-0548.1.Patterns of connectivity are important in understanding the geographic scale of local adaptation in marine populations. While natural selection can lead to local adaptation, high connectivity can diminish the potential for such adaptation to occur. Connectivity, defined as the exchange of individuals among subpopulations, is presumed to be significant in most marine species due to life histories that include widely dispersive stages. However, evidence of local adaptation in marine species, such the Atlantic silverside, Menidia menidia, raises questions concerning the degree of connectivity. We examined geochemical signatures in the otoliths, or ear bones, of adult Atlantic silversides collected in 11 locations along the northeastern coast of the United States from New Jersey to Maine in 2004 and eight locations in 2005 using laser ablation inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (ICP-MS) and isotope ratio monitoring mass spectrometry (irm-MS). These signatures were then compared to baseline signatures of juvenile fish of known origin to determine natal origin of these adult fish. We then estimated migration distances and the degree of mixing from these data. In both years, fish generally had the highest probability of originating from the same location in which they were captured (0.01â0.80), but evidence of mixing throughout the sample area was present. Furthermore, adult M. menidia exhibit highly dispersive behavior with some fish migrating over 700 km. The probability of adult fish returning to natal areas differed between years, with the probability being, on average, 0.2 higher in the second year. These findings demonstrate that marine species with largely open populations are capable of local adaptation despite apparently high gene flow.This work was funded by the National Science Foundation
(grant OCE-0425830 to D. O. Conover and grant OCE-
0134998 to S. R. Thorrold) and the New York State
Department of Environmental Conservation
A meta-analysis of state-of-the-art electoral prediction from Twitter data
Electoral prediction from Twitter data is an appealing research topic. It
seems relatively straightforward and the prevailing view is overly optimistic.
This is problematic because while simple approaches are assumed to be good
enough, core problems are not addressed. Thus, this paper aims to (1) provide a
balanced and critical review of the state of the art; (2) cast light on the
presume predictive power of Twitter data; and (3) depict a roadmap to push
forward the field. Hence, a scheme to characterize Twitter prediction methods
is proposed. It covers every aspect from data collection to performance
evaluation, through data processing and vote inference. Using that scheme,
prior research is analyzed and organized to explain the main approaches taken
up to date but also their weaknesses. This is the first meta-analysis of the
whole body of research regarding electoral prediction from Twitter data. It
reveals that its presumed predictive power regarding electoral prediction has
been rather exaggerated: although social media may provide a glimpse on
electoral outcomes current research does not provide strong evidence to support
it can replace traditional polls. Finally, future lines of research along with
a set of requirements they must fulfill are provided.Comment: 19 pages, 3 table
Juvenile recruitment, growth and maturation of Lipophrys pholis (Pisces: Blenniidae), from the west coast of Portugal
Structural and Electronic Properties of Small Neutral (MgO)n Clusters
Ab initio Perturbed Ion (PI) calculations are reported for neutral
stoichiometric (MgO)n clusters (n<14). An extensive number of isomer structures
was identified and studied. For the isomers of (MgO)n (n<8) clusters, a full
geometrical relaxation was considered. Correlation corrections were included
for all cluster sizes using the Coulomb-Hartree-Fock (CHF) model proposed by
Clementi. The results obtained compare favorably to the experimental data and
other previous theoretical studies. Inclusion of correlaiotn is crucial in
order to achieve a good description of these systems. We find an important
number of new isomers which allows us to interpret the experimental magic
numbers without the assumption of structures based on (MgO)3 subunits. Finally,
as an electronic property, the variations in the cluster ionization potential
with the cluster size were studied and related to the structural isomer
properties.Comment: 24 pages, LaTeX, 7 figures in GIF format. Accepted for publication in
Phys. Rev.
Partisan Asymmetries in Online Political Activity
We examine partisan differences in the behavior, communication patterns and
social interactions of more than 18,000 politically-active Twitter users to
produce evidence that points to changing levels of partisan engagement with the
American online political landscape. Analysis of a network defined by the
communication activity of these users in proximity to the 2010 midterm
congressional elections reveals a highly segregated, well clustered partisan
community structure. Using cluster membership as a high-fidelity (87% accuracy)
proxy for political affiliation, we characterize a wide range of differences in
the behavior, communication and social connectivity of left- and right-leaning
Twitter users. We find that in contrast to the online political dynamics of the
2008 campaign, right-leaning Twitter users exhibit greater levels of political
activity, a more tightly interconnected social structure, and a communication
network topology that facilitates the rapid and broad dissemination of
political information.Comment: 17 pages, 10 figures, 6 table
Inference with interference between units in an fMRI experiment of motor inhibition
An experimental unit is an opportunity to randomly apply or withhold a
treatment. There is interference between units if the application of the
treatment to one unit may also affect other units. In cognitive neuroscience, a
common form of experiment presents a sequence of stimuli or requests for
cognitive activity at random to each experimental subject and measures
biological aspects of brain activity that follow these requests. Each subject
is then many experimental units, and interference between units within an
experimental subject is likely, in part because the stimuli follow one another
quickly and in part because human subjects learn or become experienced or
primed or bored as the experiment proceeds. We use a recent fMRI experiment
concerned with the inhibition of motor activity to illustrate and further
develop recently proposed methodology for inference in the presence of
interference. A simulation evaluates the power of competing procedures.Comment: Published by Journal of the American Statistical Association at
http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/01621459.2012.655954 . R package
cin (Causal Inference for Neuroscience) implementing the proposed method is
freely available on CRAN at https://CRAN.R-project.org/package=ci
Human rights culture: solidarity, diversity and the right to be different
The concept of a human rights culture has been crucial to the incorporation of the European Convention of Human Rights into UK law. In this paper media and activist representations of human rights for lesbian, gay, bisexual and transgender human rights are considered as indicative of an emerging human rights culture, especially around the Civil Partnerships Act 2004. A typology of representations of rights is developed and discussed. It is concluded that insofar as there is an emerging human rights culture, it is one that is concerned above all with creating and maintaining civic relationships rather than with the assertion of individual liberty, and as inviting political compromise rather than a principled stance on universal human rights
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