Investigating the upsurge of malaria prevalence in Zambia between 2010 and 2015: a decomposition of determinants

Abstract Background Malaria is among the top causes of mortality and morbidity in Zambia. Efforts to control, prevent, and eliminate it have been intensified in the past two decades which has contributed to reductions in malaria prevalence and under-five mortality. However, there was a 21% upsurge in malaria prevalence between 2010 and 2015. Zambia is one of the only 13 countries to record an increase in malaria among 91 countries monitored by the World Health Organization in 2015. This study investigated the upsurge by decomposition of drivers of malaria. Methods The study used secondary data from three waves of nationally representative cross-sectional surveys on key malaria indicators conducted in 2010, 2012 and 2015. Using multivariable logistic regression, determinants of malaria prevalence were identified and then marginal effects of each determinant were derived. The marginal effects were then combined with changes in coverage rates of determinants between 2010 and 2015 to obtain the magnitude of how much each variable contributed to the change in the malaria prevalence. Results The odds ratio of malaria for those who slept under an insecticide-treated net (ITN) was 0.90 (95% CI 0.77–0.97), indoor residual spraying (IRS) was 0.66 (95% CI 0.49–0.89), urban residence was 0.23 (95% CI 0.15–0.37), standard house was 0.40 (95% CI 0.35–0.71) and age group 12–59 Months against those below 12 months was 4.04 (95% CI 2.80–5.81). Decomposition of prevalence changes by determinants showed that IRS reduced malaria prevalence by − 0.3% and ITNs by − 0.2% however, these reductions were overridden by increases in prevalence due to increases in the proportion of more at-risk children aged 12–59 months by + 2.3% and rural residents by + 2.2%. Conclusion The increases in interventions, such as ITNs and IRS, were shown to have contributed to malaria reduction in 2015; however, changes in demographics such as increases in the proportion of more at risk groups among under-five children and rural residents may have overridden the impact of these interventions and resulted in an overall increase. The upsurge in malaria in 2015 compared to 2010 may not have been due to weaknesses in programme interventions but due to increases in more at-risk children and rural residents compared to 2010. The apparent increase in rural residents in the sample population may not have been a true reflection of the population structure but due to oversampling in rural areas which was not fully adjusted for. The increase in malaria prevalence may therefore have been overestimated

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Background. Beta-adrenergic receptor blocker (BARB) drugs are a wide range of medicines that are used in various conditions, including chronic heart failure (HF). Several studies have reported a wide-ranging inappropriate use of evidence-based beta-blockers (EBBBs) in chronic HF in both inpatients and outpatients. Objectives. To assess the utilisation and optimisation of EBBBs among patients with HF who presented with a reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF). Methods. A hospital-based retrospective cross-sectional study was carried out at the Adult University Teaching Hospital (AUTH), in Lusaka, Zambia, where patient medical files for the period of 1 July 2018 to 31 July 2021 were reviewed. Patient information, including file number, age, sex, type of BARB and the dose used, was recorded on the developed and validated checklist. Multivariable regression analysis was performed to identify factors associated with utilisation of BARBs. Results. Of the 173 medical records reviewed, BARBs were utilised in 101 (58.4%) patients. Among the patients who utilised BARBs, 96 (95.0%) were taking EBBBs, while the rest (n=5, 5.0 %) were taking atenolol, which is a non-EBBB. Among the patients who were on EBBBs, none of them received the optimal dose. Age ≥65 years (adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 0.3, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.17 - 0.64), previous hospitalisation (aOR 0.3, 95% CI 0.13 - 0.51) and furosemide dose ≥40 mg (aOR 0.4, 95% CI 0.21 - 0.64) were significantly associated with lower likelihood of BARB utilisation. New York Heart Association (NYHA) class II (aOR 3.4, 95% CI 1.08 - 10.7), NYHA class III (aOR 4.8, 95% CI 1.65 - 13.7) and patients using at least 5 medications (aOR 5.0, 95% CI 2.91 - 8.77) were independent predictors of BARB utilisation. Conclusion. This study showed that 95.0% of chronic HF patients were utilising EBBBs, and none received the optimal dose as recommended in the guidelines. Pharmacotherapy with EBBBs should be optimised among patients with chronic HfrEF, as these drugs reduce both morbidity and mortality

Addressing Challenges in Health Technology Assessment Institutionalization for Furtherance of Universal Health Coverage Through South-South Knowledge Exchange: Lessons From Bhutan, Kenya, Thailand, and Zambia

10.1016/j.vhri.2020.12.011Value in Health Regional Issues24187-19

The potential health and revenue effects of a tax on sugar sweetened beverages in Zambia

The global burden of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) has been rising. A key risk factor for NCDs is obesity, which has been partly linked to consumption of sugar sweetened beverages (SSBs). A tax on SSBs is an attractive control measure to curb the rising trend in NCDs, as it has the potential to reduce consumption of SSBs. However, studies on the potential effects of SSB taxes have been concentrated in high-income countries with limited studies in low-income and middle-income countries. Using data from the 2015 Zambia Living Conditions Monitoring Survey (LCMS) data, the 2017 Zambia NCD STEPS Survey, and key parameters from the literature, we simulated the effect of a 25% SSB tax in Zambia on energy intake and the corresponding change in body mass index (BMI), obesity prevalence, deaths averted, life years gained and revenues generated using a mathematical model developed using Microsoft Excel. We conducted Monte Carlo simulations to construct 95% confidence bands and sensitivity analyses to account for uncertainties in key parameters. We found that a 25% SSB would avert 2526 deaths, though these results were not statistically significant overall. However, when broken down by gender, the tax was found to significantly avert 1133 deaths in women (95% CI 353 to 1970). The tax was found to potentially generate an additional US$5.46 million (95% CI 4.66 to 6.14) in revenue annually. We conclude that an SSB tax in Zambia has the potential to significantly decrease the amount of disability-adjusted life years lost to lifestyle-related diseases in women, highlighting important health equity outcomes. Women have higher baseline BMI and therefore are at higher risk for NCDs. In addition, an SSB tax will provide government with additional revenue which if earmarked for health could contribute to healthcare financing in Zambia