Monetary Policy Strategies

The paper considers the merits of rules and discretion for monetary policy when the structure of the macroeconomic model and the probability distributions of disturbances are not well defined. It is argued that when it is costly to delay policy reactions to seldom-experienced shocks until formal algorithmic learning has been accomplished, and when time consistency problems are significant, a mixed strategy that combines a simple verifiable rule with discretion is attractive. The paper also discusses mechanisms for mitigating credibility problems and emphasizes that arguments against various types of simple rules lost their force under a mixed strategy.

The Linkage Between Speculative Attack and Target Zone Models of Exchange Rates

In this paper we generalize the target zone exchange rate as model formalized by Krugman (1988b) to include finite-sized interventions in defense of the zone. The main contributions of these pages consist of linking the recent developments in the theory of target zones to the mirror-image theory of speculative attacks on asset price fixing regimes and in using aspects of that linkage to give an intuitive interpretation to the smooth pasting" condition usually invoked as a terminal condition.

Financial Integration: A New Methodology and an Illustration

This paper develops a simple new methodology to test for asset integration and applies it within and between American stock markets. Our technique is tightly based on a general intertemporal asset-pricing model, and relies on estimating and comparing expected risk-free rates across assets. Expected risk-free rates are allowed to vary freely over time, constrained only by the fact that they are equal across (risk-adjusted) assets. Assets are allowed to have general risk characteristics, and are constrained only by a factor model of covariances over short time periods. The technique is undemanding in terms of both data and estimation. We find that expected risk-free rates vary dramatically over time, unlike short interest rates. Further, the S&P 500 market seems to be well integrated, and the NASDAQ is generally (but not always) integrated. However, the NASDAQ is poorly integrated with the S&P 500.

Money and the Open Economy Business Cycle: A Flexible Price Model

This paper develops an open-economy model of the business cycle. The nominal prices in the model are flexible and monetary nonneutrality is developed using information confusion about the sources of disturbances to demand coupled with differential persistence of demand shocks. Firms use inventories to smooth their production, and consumers follow a stochastic permanent income expenditure function. The major implication of the model is that unperceived monetary disturbances improve the terms of trade and increase real output in contrast to sticky price models in which the terms of trade deteriorates. This implication of the model is examined empirically.

Process Consistency and Monetary Reform: Further Evidence and Implications

In this paper we provide additional evidence that process consistency may have materialized as a restrictive constraint on the money generation process. In addition to recomputing the time series of process consistency probabilities using new data from the German case, we also supply our empirical technique to the data from the other hyperinflations studied by Cagan. We interpret our results as evidence hearing on the type of transversality condition studied by Brock or by Brock and Scheinkman as a sufficient condition to insure a unique equilibrium in optimizing models with perfect foresight and money.

Fixes: Of The Forward Discount Puzzle

Regressions of ex post changes in floating exchange rates on appropriate interest differentials typically imply that the high- interest rate currency tends to appreciate, the `forward discount puzzle.' Using data from the European Monetary System, we find that a large part of the forward discount puzzle vanishes for regimes of fixed exchange rates. That is, deviations from uncovered interest parity appear to vary in a way which is dependent upon the exchange rate regime. By using the many EMS realignments, we are also able to quantify the `peso problem.'

Uncovered Interest Parity in Crisis

This paper tests for uncovered interest parity (UIP) using daily data for 23 developing and developed countries during the crisis-strewn 1990s. We find that UIP works better on average in the 1990s than in previous eras in the sense that the slope coefficient from a regression of exchange rate changes on interest differentials yields a positive coefficient (which is sometimes insignificantly different from unity). UIP works systematically worse for fixed and flexible exchange rate countries than for crisis countries, but we find no significant differences between rich and poor countries. Copyright 2002, International Monetary Fund