Trends and measurement of HIV prevalence in northern Malawi.

BACKGROUND: Most data on HIV prevalence in Malawi come from antenatal clinic (ANC) surveillance and are, therefore, subject to bias. OBJECTIVES: HIV prevalence and risk factors were measured using population-based data to assess the accuracy of ANC surveillance and changes in prevalence and risk factors for HIV over time. METHODS: HIV prevalence was measured in 1988-1993 and 1998-2001 in community controls from case-control studies of mycobacterial disease in Karonga District, Malawi. ANC surveillance studies in the district began in 1999. RESULTS: Age and area-standardized HIV prevalence in women aged 15-49 years in the community was 3.9% in 1988-1990, 12.5% in 1991-1993 and 13.9% in 1998-2001. For men, HIV prevalence was 3.7%, 9.2% and 11.4% in the same periods. In 1988-1993, HIV positivity was associated with occupations other than farming, with increased schooling and being born outside Karonga District. In 1998-2001, non-farmers were still at higher risk but the other associations were not seen. The age- and area-adjusted HIV prevalence in the ANC in 1999-2001 was 9.2%. The underestimate can be explained largely by marriage and mobility. Reduced fertility in HIV-positive individuals was demonstrated in both ANC and community populations. A previously recommended parity-based adjustment gave an estimated female HIV prevalence of 15.0%. CONCLUSIONS: HIV prevalence has increased and continues to be higher in non-farmers. The increase is particularly marked in those with no education. ANC surveillance underestimated HIV prevalence in the female population in all but the youngest age group. Although there were differences in sociodemographic factors, a parity-based adjustment gave a reasonable estimate of female HIV prevalence

Genome-wide association study of leprosy in Malawi and Mali

Leprosy is a chronic infection of the skin and peripheral nerves caused by Mycobacterium leprae. Despite recent improvements in disease control, leprosy remains an important cause of infectious disability globally. Large-scale genetic association studies in Chinese, Vietnamese and Indian populations have identified over 30 susceptibility loci for leprosy. There is a significant burden of leprosy in Africa, however it is uncertain whether the findings of published genetic association studies are generalizable to African populations. To address this, we conducted a genome-wide association study (GWAS) of leprosy in Malawian (327 cases, 436 controls) and Malian (247 cases, 368 controls) individuals. In that analysis, we replicated four risk loci previously reported in China, Vietnam and India; MHC Class I and II, LACC1 and SLC29A3. We further identified a novel leprosy susceptibility locus at 10q24 (rs2015583; combined p = 8.81 × 10-9; OR = 0.51 [95% CI 0.40 - 0.64]). Using publicly-available data we characterise regulatory activity at this locus, identifying ACTR1A as a candidate mediator of leprosy risk. This locus shows evidence of recent positive selection and demonstrates pleiotropy with established risk loci for inflammatory bowel disease and childhood-onset asthma. A shared genetic architecture for leprosy and inflammatory bowel disease has been previously described. We expand on this, strengthening the hypothesis that selection pressure driven by leprosy has shaped the evolution of autoimmune and atopic disease in modern populations. More broadly, our data highlights the importance of defining the genetic architecture of disease across genetically diverse populations, and that disease insights derived from GWAS in one population may not translate to all affected populations

Trends in tuberculosis and the influence of HIV infection in northern Malawi, 1988-2001.

OBJECTIVE: To document the changing incidence and patterns of tuberculosis (TB) in rural Africa and the extent to which they are influenced by HIV. METHODS: As part of longstanding epidemiological studies in Karonga District, Malawi, a series of case control studies of TB and HIV were conducted from 1988 onwards. Data from these studies, from a total population survey, and from the Malawi national census have been used to reconstruct the changes in the TB epidemic in the area from 1988 to 2001, examining the role of HIV. RESULTS: The incidence of all confirmed TB, and of new smear-positive TB, in adults increased to peak in the late 1990s but appears to have decreased since. Two-thirds of cases are now HIV positive. The rise in incidence was greatest in the 30-44-year-old age group and was particularly marked for women, leading to a decrease in the male : female ratio for TB incidence from 1.3 to 0.8. The proportion of new smear-positive TB cases attributable to HIV increased from 17% in 1988-1990 to 57% in 2000-2001, but the estimated rate of smear-positive TB in the absence of HIV decreased from 0.78/1000 to 0.45/1000. CONCLUSIONS: Without HIV the incidence of smear-positive TB would have fallen in this population. Instead it has risen and is predominantly affecting young adults and women. There is some evidence that the HIV-associated TB epidemic may have passed its peak

Analysis of pleiotropy at the leprosy association at chromosome 10q24

Colocalisation analysis of 55 GWAS traits with the leprosy association at chromosome 10q24

Association statistics for imputed classical HLA alleles and leprosy risk in Malawi and Mali

Association statistics for imputed classical HLA alleles and leprosy risk in Malawi and Mali

SNP quality control summary in Malawi and Mali

SNP quality control summary in Malawi and Mali

Sample quality control summary in Malawi and Mali

Sample quality control summary in Malawi and Mali

Selection signatures at chromosome 10q24

Integrated haplotype scores (iHS) and genome-wide log-rank p-values at chr10:104270877–104280877 in 25 1,000 genomes project populations

99% credible set SNPs for leprosy association at chromosome 10q24

99% credible set SNPs for leprosy association at chromosome 10q24

Replication of previously-published leprosy associated non-HLA SNPs in Malawi and Mali

Replication of previously-published leprosy associated non-HLA SNPs in Malawi and Mali