Media Accounts of the Impact of COVID-19 on the Nigerian Real Estate Market

The onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in Nigeria was documented by pervasive press coverage, with daily reporting on such issues as infection rates, government expenditures on efforts to combat the disease, and non-adherence to public health measures by local celebrities. More recently, the coverage has come to include the pandemic’s effects on the economy, notably in terms of industrial performance and the implications for the livelihoods of Nigerian citizens. This paper presents an analysis of media accounts of the impact of COVID-19 on the country’s real estate industry that sheds light on the issues of concern before the pandemic, lessons about the impact of COVID-19 on the industry captured in national newspaper stories, the integration of long-standing concerns into reports on the impact of the disease, and the short-term implications for the real estate market. Specifically, within the framework of a qualitative research design, a content analysis of the coverage in three online national newspapers was conducted over the period from First February to 30th May 2020, which was segmented into consecutive pre-COVID, pre-lockdown, and lockdown periods. The analysis was performed using Atlas ti.8 software. The results indicated that the impacts of COVID-19 on the Nigerian real estate market have included increases in void rates in the upper-income residential submarket, more defaults on loans, rents, and mortgages on commercial properties, and changes in the demand for traditional office space. It was also found that the coverage of issues related to both COVID-19 and general-interest issues remained fairly constant, except that reports about COVID-19 became more frequent during the lockdown period. The projections in the coverage regarding the immediate future of the real estate sector are varied. Practitioners expected much leaner housing sales, and there were predictions of an upward trend in the co-sharing of spaces and in mortgage defaults

Media Accounts of the Impact of COVID-19 on the Nigerian Real Estate Market

The onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in Nigeria was documented by pervasive press coverage, with daily reporting on such issues as infection rates, government expenditures on efforts to combat the disease, and non-adherence to public health measures by local celebrities. More recently, the coverage has come to include the pandemic’s effects on the economy, notably in terms of industrial performance and the implications for the livelihoods of Nigerian citizens. This paper presents an analysis of media accounts of the impact of COVID-19 on the country’s real estate industry that sheds light on the issues of concern before the pandemic, lessons about the impact of COVID-19 on the industry captured in national newspaper stories, the integration of long-standing concerns into reports on the impact of the disease, and the short-term implications for the real estate market. Specifically, within the framework of a qualitative research design, a content analysis of the coverage in three online national newspapers was conducted over the period from First February to 30th May 2020, which was segmented into consecutive pre-COVID, pre-lockdown, and lockdown periods. The analysis was performed using Atlas ti.8 software. The results indicated that the impacts of COVID-19 on the Nigerian real estate market have included increases in void rates in the upper-income residential submarket, more defaults on loans, rents, and mortgages on commercial properties, and changes in the demand for traditional office space. It was also found that the coverage of issues related to both COVID-19 and general-interest issues remained fairly constant, except that reports about COVID-19 became more frequent during the lockdown period. The projections in the coverage regarding the immediate future of the real estate sector are varied. Practitioners expected much leaner housing sales, and there were predictions of an upward trend in the co-sharing of spaces and in mortgage defaults

The right to the city in an era of modernization: Exploring Lagos’ restrictive informal transportation policy through a political settlements lens

The study focusses on the dynamics of power relations influencing informal economic policies at the city level, utilising the political settlements theory to do so. The case study rests on the understanding of political settlements as an ongoing, conflict-ending agreement among powerful groups. Key actors in this study are policy-makers, and operators of okada motorcycles (a very popular informal transportation option) in Lagos, Nigeria’s economic capital. The relationship between these actors intricately lies between tensions and opportunities. Operators of okada motorcycles provide much needed flexible transportation options in a city bedevilled by long hours of traffic congestion and unmotorable, physically hard to reach communities. The demand for okada services in Lagos is therefore sustained by residents themselves, who often ignore the precarious meandering of its operators on busy highways. On the other hand, policy makers allude to this inherent lack of safety and additionally, security risks to maintain a policy of restriction and then, total ban on operators much to outcry from operators and the public. As okada-riders tend to be from a specific ethnic, migrant group, scholars have previously studied the issues from the lens of migration and the rights to the city, while the Lagos State Government has been accused of perpetuating a modernisation agenda at the expense of the informal sector operators. The government’s past actions in ignoring its own restrictive policies close to election periods also lends credence for understanding the political settlement processes at play in this sector. The political settlements framework therefore presents a strong analytical opportunity to understand the negotiations, trade-offs and power shifting that underscore inclusive policy for the informal transportation sector in Lagos. It recognises the power wielded by the policy actors as elected officials and by the okada riders as powerful service operators whose options supplants the formal transportation sector for many residents. This study traces these processes through media analysis, interviews and surveys with both actors, seeking to present a balance between the realities of governing a mega city, the rights of migrants to legitimately seek employment in the city and the responsibility of both government and people to make their city work for all. Although focussed on the Lagos informal sector, the study provides pathways for inclusive policy in other, similar contexts

Inclusive poverty reduction: In search of a policy framework to support individuals operating in the informal economy in Lagos, Nigeria

Recent policy efforts to enhance and modernise the urban environment of Lagos have included restricting, or banning outright, street hawking and okada riding. These highly visible activities have been targeted for multiple reasons, including a desire by the authorities to improve personal safety and security, reduce okada-related accidents, improve traffic flows, and attract greater investment into the city. These measures have not been without controversy, with the uses of Lagos’s public space being highly contested between the authorities, informal operators, and residents. The bans target two major sources of income-earning opportunity for informal operators in Lagos. Further, they have persisted because residents have continued to buy from hawkers, and seek rides on okadas, as they actualise their daily transportation and consumption needs. The purpose of this research project has been to understand the reasons behind the perceived shortcomings of the measures imposed and seek to find ways to improve both the policies themselves and the policymaking processes that deliver the measures governing everyone’s daily lives in Lagos. To do this, we have engaged widely with stakeholders on both policies and policymaking. We have interviewed representatives from six government ministries, the federation of informal workers organisations of Nigeria, and representatives of Okada riders and street traders. We have gathered data through a survey of over 1700 respondents across okada riders, street traders and residents in 20 local government areas in Lagos State. Please note, however, that this survey was conducted in January-February 2022, before the outright bans on okada riders, imposed later in 2022. We have also sought the views of residents via radio phone-in programmes. We have then hosted two workshops, bringing the stakeholders together, to reflect on the findings of the research and to co-create proposals for ways that can take these concerns forward. Our workshops have demonstrated that whilst every stakeholder has an agenda to pursue and protect, and whilst the different agendas will sometimes conflict, there is a great willingness to meet in a spirit of cooperation and collaboration. From these meetings, the stakeholders have identified mutually agreeable solutions and ways forward, towards inclusive policy and policymaking processes, reflective of the dynamics of the Lagos economy. We present these recommendations now

Conflicting rationalities and okada riding business in Lagos: Lessons for an inclusive policy framework

Okada riding (motorcycle taxi) business provides a prominent commuter service in Lagos. It is, however, an activity that has been subject to restrictions and outright bans in recent years. This paper focuses on differences in perspectives among city stakeholders towards the government’s restrictions on okada and their enforcement. These differences are profound, with the government imposing outright bans in more and more parts of Lagos while citizens continue to use okada. Thus, ‘conflicting rationalities’ around the bans and their disregard are inevitable, given the diversity of city stakeholders, from okada riders and their unions, the government imposing bans, state agents enforcing bans, and categories of citizens (the elites, the working poor, and everyone in between), with differing views about the merits of the bans and the logics underlying them. This conflict is seen with okada riders, on the one hand, trying to earn a living through the provision of commuter services (claiming the right to the city), with state agents and the elites trying to sanitise the city and eliminate crimes and associated menace in the city. This has turned out to be a conflict between survival, the right to the city, effective governance, and modernisation, which has resulted in protests, arrests, the seizure and destruction of motorbikes, court cases against the bans, etc. Viewing these conflicts through the lens of rational choice theory, we argue that the city authority’s decision to restrict okada business, and reactions to the ban, are informed by an analysis of associated risks and rewards. We collected rich data via multiple and unique methods between Sept 2021 and August 2022: 6 focus-group interviews conducted with stakeholders (i.e., government ministries, informal economy workers and their representatives, and FIWON); a follow-up workshop with stakeholders; and an in-depth survey conducted in all 20 Local Government Areas of Lagos State, yielding 1736 responses from citizens. Our findings show that the thoughts and experiences of the government and okada riders on the business are at variance; and that stakeholder engagement in the formulation of the law that restricted okada business was inadequate and ineffective. Our results provide important insights into the consequences and gaps arising from conflicting rationalities in the management of the okada riding business in Lagos. This offers valuable lessons for developing an inclusive policy framework

Redefining the role of urban studies Early Career Academics in the post-COVID-19 university

We are an international collective of Early Career Academics (ECAs) who met throughout 2020 to explore the implications of COVID-19 on precarious academics. With this intervention, our aims are to voice commonly shared experiences and concerns and to reflect on the extent to which the pandemic offers opportunities to redefine Higher Education and research institutions, in a context of ongoing precarity and funding cuts. Specifically, we explore avenues to build solidarity across institutions and geographies, to ensure that the conduct of urban research, and support offered to ECAs, allows for more inclusivity, diversity, security and equitability. *The Urban ECA Collective emerged from a workshop series described in this article which intended to foster international solidarity among self-defined early career academics working within urban research.ITESO, A.C

Land Alienation and Sustainability Issues in the Peri-urban Interface of South-West Nigeria

Waheed Kadiri and Basirat Oyalowo examine the view-points of local stakeholders in West Nigeria on land grabbing. Through village appraisal survey with 78 stakeholders in seven peri-urban settlements in South-West Nigeria they explore how the land grabs are not always unwelcome by local stakeholders. The incessant calls for foreign investment and private sector participation in development by government and its agencies and the market operations of local land-owners has led to the delivery of vast areas of lands to potential land grabbers. They conclude that any global scale intervention to reduce successfully land grabbing in the area, attention should recognize that stakeholders see land as an economic resource to be exploited rather than an environmental resource to be protected.

Sustainability viewpoints of 'Place-Makers' in Nigeria: Planning for sustainable new settlements

The rate of Urbanisation in developing countries has seen an unprecedented increase in recent years; and inevitably, so has the developement of unsustainable urban forms. In tackling the problems emanating from unchecked urbanisation, various interventions have been tried in different contexts, and guidance have been taken from various international agreements. A very important building block of this intervention will be the interpretation of the problem, as well as the interpretation of the broad principles of sustainability. The case study for this research was developed from the scratch to check unsustainable urban forms elsewhere. Thus there is an inherent stake to 'get it right'. This research seeks to identify the interpretation of the concept of 'sustainability' in this context, based on analyses of interviews with the 'place-makers'- those who have been charged professionally and contractually to design new settlements- with a view to ascertaining what is considered relevant in the context of the sustainability agenda

Street Level Bureaucrats, Policy Entrepreneurship, and the Challenge of Enforcing Bans on Informal Economy Activities

Street Level Bureaucrats (SLBs), public officials who deliver policies in citizen-facing roles, implement policy, once it is agreed elsewhere (typically they have not been part of this process). They may, however, have some flexibility over how exactly that policy is implemented (enforcement or compliance might be more pertinent in some contexts)– or, in some cases, the more appropriate word is ‘enforced’. One issue is the extent to which SLBs act as policy entrepreneurs. Their implementation experiences may reveal problems with policy design that, with adjustment, could improve implementation. Most studies analyse SLBs’ ability to act as a ‘traditional’ policy entrepreneur, using their knowledge, contacts, etc, to press policymakers to deliver policy change. In terms of the policy process, they act as informal policy evaluators, seeking to trigger a new round of policy. Other studies suggest that even by making adjustments to how they implement policy, they act as policy entrepreneurs. Part of this literature reflects on the importance of context, especially institutional, in shaping or restraining SLB actions. In this research, we undertake an in-depth analysis of two informal economy policies enacted in Lagos, Nigeria – the banning of street hawking, and the restriction then banning of okada (motorcycle taxis). We analyse the factors influencing the varying approaches to policy implementation and enforcement with reference to emerging results from a project that has collected data through 2021 and 2022. Six focus-group interviews were conducted with stakeholders, notably from government ministries, informal economy workers and their representatives; an in-depth citizen-survey yielding 1736 responses; and a workshop with policymakers, enforcement officers, and workers. Analysis is ongoing, but initial reflections suggest that institutional and economic contexts are important in the implementation and enforcement of these two bans, with SLBs willingness and ability to act as policy entrepreneurs evident, but different in the two cases