Quantification of digital forensic hypotheses using probability theory

The issue of downloading illegal material from a website onto a personal digital device is considered from the perspective of conventional (Pascalian) probability theory. We present quantitative results for a simple model system by which we analyse and counter the putative defence case that the forensically recovered illegal material was downloaded accidentally by the defendant. The model is applied to two actual prosecutions involving possession of child pornography.published_or_final_versio

Cyber Insurance

This volume covers a wide spectrum of issues relating to economic and political development enabled by information and communication technology (ICT)

An approach to quantifying the plausibility of the inadvertent download defence

A table of 95% confidence limits on the probabilities for randomly downloading relatively small numbers of illegal images or sensitive documents amongst a relatively large number of other images or documents has been computed. It is anticipated that these data will assist prosecution officials in arriving at a decision as to whether or not there is a reasonable likelihood of a successful criminal prosecution when the inadvertent download defence is employed in cases of possession of child pornography, terrorist material or espionage related documents. The same data can also be used by defence counsels to assess the strength of the prosecution’s case