Climate, Deer, Rodents, and Acorns as Determinants of Variation in Lyme-Disease Risk

Risk of human exposure to vector-borne zoonotic pathogens is a function of the abundance and infection prevalence of vectors. We assessed the determinants of Lyme-disease risk (density and Borrelia burgdorferi-infection prevalence of nymphal Ixodes scapularis ticks) over 13 y on several field plots within eastern deciduous forests in the epicenter of US Lyme disease (Dutchess County, New York). We used a model comparison approach to simultaneously test the importance of ambient growing-season temperature, precipitation, two indices of deer (Odocoileus virginianus) abundance, and densities of white-footed mice (Peromyscus leucopus), eastern chipmunks (Tamias striatus), and acorns ( Quercus spp.), in both simple and multiple regression models, in predicting entomological risk. Indices of deer abundance had no predictive power, and precipitation in the current year and temperature in the prior year had only weak effects on entomological risk. The strongest predictors of a current year's risk were the prior year's abundance of mice and chipmunks and abundance of acorns 2 y previously. In no case did inclusion of deer or climate variables improve the predictive power of models based on rodents, acorns, or both. We conclude that interannual variation in entomological risk of exposure to Lyme disease is correlated positively with prior abundance of key hosts for the immature stages of the tick vector and with critical food resources for those hosts

Exploring public support for climate action and renewables in resource-rich economies: The case of Scotland

Scotland offers a case study of a country with significant fossil energy resources that has recently moved to rapidly decarbonize its economy and deploy renewable energy sources. We review the key policies that have facilitated a 47% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions from 1990 levels and almost 75% of Scottish electricity being produced from renewable energy. Public views on climate policy, renewable energy, and low-carbon technologies are explored using focus groups we conducted in Aberdeen, Peterhead, and Edinburgh and citizens’ juries held in Aberdeen and Edinburgh. The deliberative processes reveal strong public support for continued diversification of Scotland’s energy portfolio to include more renewable energy sources, particularly at the local level. We also found support for a greater role for state-led involvement in the energy sector. Pro-renewables sentiments and skepticism of industry pervade even in Aberdeen, the main UK hub for oil and gas exploration, alongside support for further exploration of low-carbon technologies such as carbon capture and storage (CCS). Although Peterhead stood to benefit from a major CCS project, there was little awareness of the proposed project among residents nor its cancellation. Finally, we argue deliberative processes can help both policy-makers and developers gauge where they can (and cannot) expect support

It Takes a Community to Raise the Prevalence of a Zoonotic Pathogen

By definition, zoonotic pathogens are not strict host-species specialists in that they infect humans and at least one nonhuman reservoir species. The majority of zoonotic pathogens infect and are amplified by multiple vertebrate species in nature, each of which has a quantitatively different impact on the distribution and abundance of the pathogen and thus on disease risk. Unfortunately, when new zoonotic pathogens emerge, the dominant response by public health scientists is to search for a few, or even the single, most important reservoirs and to ignore other species that might strongly influence transmission. This focus on the single “primary” reservoir host species can delay biological understanding, and potentially public health interventions as species important in either amplifying or regulating the pathogen are overlooked. Investigating the evolutionary and ecological strategy of newly discovered or emerging pathogens within the community of potential and actual host species will be fruitful to both biological understanding and public health

Sacred Cows and Sympathetic Squirrels: The Importance of Biological Diversity to Human Health

Dobson and colleagues describe how some host species act to reduce the risk of transmission of virulent zoonotic pathogens to humans

Modelling Transmission of Vector-Borne Pathogens Shows Complex Dynamics When Vector Feeding Sites Are Limited

The relationship between species richness and the prevalence of vector-borne disease has been widely studied with a range of outcomes. Increasing the number of host species for a pathogen may decrease infection prevalence (dilution effect), increase it (amplification), or have no effect. We derive a general model, and a specific implementation, which show that when the number of vector feeding sites on each host is limiting, the effects on pathogen dynamics of host population size are more complex than previously thought. The model examines vector-borne disease in the presence of different host species that are either competent or incompetent (i.e. that cannot transmit the pathogen to vectors) as reservoirs for the pathogen. With a single host species present, the basic reproduction ratio R0 is a non-monotonic function of the population size of host individuals (H), i.e. a value exists that maximises R0. Surprisingly, if a reduction in host population size may actually increase R0. Extending this model to a two-host species system, incompetent individuals from the second host species can alter the value of which may reverse the effect on pathogen prevalence of host population reduction. We argue that when vector-feeding sites on hosts are limiting, the net effect of increasing host diversity might not be correctly predicted using simple frequency-dependent epidemiological models

Quantifying dilution and amplification in a community of hosts for tick-borne pathogens

Recent controversy over whether biodiversity reduces disease risk (dilution effect) has focused on the ecology of Lyme disease, a tick-borne zoonosis. A criticism of the dilution effect is that increasing host species richness might amplify disease risk, assuming that total host abundance, and therefore feeding opportunities for ticks, increase with species richness. In contrast, a dilution effect is expected when poor quality hosts for ticks and pathogens (dilution hosts) divert tick blood meals away from competent hosts. Even if host densities are additive, the relationship between host density and tick encounters can be nonlinear if the number of ticks that encounter a host is a saturating function of host density, which occurs if ticks aggregate on the remaining hosts rather than failing to find a host before death. Both dilution and amplification are theoretical possibilities, and assessing which is more prevalent required detailed analyses of empirical systems. We used field data to explore the degree of tick redistribution onto fewer individuals with variation in intraspecific host density and novel data-driven models for tick dynamics to determine how changes in vertebrate community composition influence the density of nymphs infected with the Lyme bacterium. To be conservative, we allowed total host density to increase additively with species richness. Our long-term field studies found that larval and nymphal ticks redistribute onto fewer individuals as host densities decline, that a large proportion of nymphs and adults find hosts, and that mice and chipmunks feed a large proportion of nymphs. White-footed mice, eastern chipmunks, short-tailed shrews, and masked shrews were important amplification hosts that greatly increased the density of infected nymphs. Gray squirrels and Virginia opossums were important dilution hosts. Removing these two species increased the maximum number of larvae attached to amplification hosts by 57%. Raccoons and birds were minor dilution hosts under some conditions. Even under the assumption of additive community assembly, some species are likely to reduce the density of infected nymphs as diversity increases. If the assumption of additivity is relaxed, then species that reduce the density of small mammals through predation or competition might substantially reduce disease risk.This is the publisher’s final pdf. The article is copyrighted by the Ecological Society of America and published by John Wiley & Sons, Inc. It can be found at: http://esajournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/hub/journal/10.1002/%28ISSN%291939-5582/Keywords: community ecology, Ixodes scapularis, ecosystem services, biodiversity, Lyme diseas

Persistence of Pathogens with Short Infectious Periods in Seasonal Tick Populations: The Relative Importance of Three Transmission Routes

BACKGROUND: The flaviviruses causing tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) persist at low but consistent levels in tick populations, despite short infectious periods in their mammalian hosts and transmission periods constrained by distinctly seasonal tick life cycles. In addition to systemic and vertical transmission, cofeeding transmission has been proposed as an important route for the persistence of TBE-causing viruses. Because cofeeding transmission requires ticks to feed simultaneously, the timing of tick activity may be critical to pathogen persistence. Existing models of tick-borne diseases do not incorporate all transmission routes and tick seasonality. Our aim is to evaluate the influence of seasonality on the relative importance of different transmission routes by using a comprehensive mathematical model. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We developed a stage-structured population model that includes tick seasonality and evaluated the relative importance of the transmission routes for pathogens with short infectious periods, in particular Powassan virus (POWV) and the related "deer tick virus," emergent encephalitis-causing flaviviruses in North America. We used the next generation matrix method to calculate the basic reproductive ratio and performed elasticity analyses. We confirmed that cofeeding transmission is critically important for such pathogens to persist in seasonal tick populations over the reasonable range of parameter values. At higher but still plausible rates of vertical transmission, our model suggests that vertical transmission can strongly enhance pathogen prevalence when it operates in combination with cofeeding transmission. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Our results demonstrate that the consistent prevalence of POWV observed in tick populations could be maintained by a combination of low vertical, intermediate cofeeding and high systemic transmission rates. When vertical transmission is weak, nymphal ticks support integral parts of the transmission cycle that are critical for maintaining the pathogen. We also extended the model to pathogens that cause chronic infections in hosts and found that cofeeding transmission could contribute to elevating prevalence even in these systems. Therefore, the common assumption that cofeeding transmission is not relevant in models of chronic host infection, such as Lyme disease, could lead to underestimating pathogen prevalence

West Nile Virus Epidemics in North America Are Driven by Shifts in Mosquito Feeding Behavior

West Nile virus (WNV) has caused repeated large-scale human epidemics in North America since it was first detected in 1999 and is now the dominant vector-borne disease in this continent. Understanding the factors that determine the intensity of the spillover of this zoonotic pathogen from birds to humans (via mosquitoes) is a prerequisite for predicting and preventing human epidemics. We integrated mosquito feeding behavior with data on the population dynamics and WNV epidemiology of mosquitoes, birds, and humans. We show that Culex pipiens, the dominant enzootic (bird-to-bird) and bridge (bird-to-human) vector of WNV in urbanized areas in the northeast and north-central United States, shifted its feeding preferences from birds to humans by 7-fold during late summer and early fall, coinciding with the dispersal of its preferred host (American robins, Turdus migratorius) and the rise in human WNV infections. We also show that feeding shifts in Cx. tarsalis amplify human WNV epidemics in Colorado and California and occur during periods of robin dispersal and migration. Our results provide a direct explanation for the timing and intensity of human WNV epidemics. Shifts in feeding from competent avian hosts early in an epidemic to incompetent humans after mosquito infection prevalences are high result in synergistic effects that greatly amplify the number of human infections of this and other pathogens. Our results underscore the dramatic effects of vector behavior in driving the transmission of zoonotic pathogens to humans

Habitat structure: a fundamental concept and framework for urban soil ecology

Habitat structure is defined as the composition and arrangement of physical matter at a location. Although habitat structure is the physical template underlying ecological patterns and processes, the concept is relatively unappreciated and underdeveloped in ecology. However, it provides a fundamental concept for urban ecology because human activities in urban ecosystems are often targeted toward management of habitat structure. In addition, the concept emphasizes the fine-scale, on-the-ground perspective needed in the study of urban soil ecology. To illustrate this, urban soil ecology research is summarized from the perspective of habitat structure effects. Among the key conclusions emerging from the literature review are: (1) habitat structure provides a unifying theme for multivariate research about urban soil ecology; (2) heterogeneous urban habitat structures influence soil ecological variables in different ways; (3) more research is needed to understand relationships among sociological variables, habitat structure patterns and urban soil ecology. To stimulate urban soil ecology research, a conceptual framework is presented to show the direct and indirect relationships among habitat structure and ecological variables. Because habitat structure serves as a physical link between sociocultural and ecological systems, it can be used as a focus for interdisciplinary and applied research (e.g., pest management) about the multiple, interactive effects of urbanization on the ecology of soils

Case Report Cardiac Gated Computed Tomography Used to Confirm Iatrogenic Aortic Valve Leaflet Perforation after Mitral Valve Replacement

Aortic insufficiency from iatrogenic valve perforation from nonaortic valve operations is rarely reported despite the prevalence of these procedures. Rapid diagnosis of these defects is essential to prevent deterioration of cardiac function. In this paper, we describe a young man who reported to our institution after two open cardiac surgeries with new aortic regurgitation found to be due to an iatrogenic perforation of his noncoronary aortic valve cusp. This defect was not appreciated by previous intraoperative transesophageal echocardiography and was inadequately visualized on follow-up transthoracic and transesophageal echocardiograms. In contrast, cardiac gated computed tomography clearly visualized the defect and its surrounding structures. This case highlights the utility of cardiac gated computed tomography for cases of suspected valvular perforation when echocardiography is not readily available or inadequate imaging is obtained