The 'cleansing effect' of recessions: Inefficient firms fail, average productivity goes up

During the Great Recession, the percentage of US establishments going bankrupt increased from 11.8 per cent to 13.5 per cent. Similar increases in business failures have been observed in other countries hit by the recession. The conventional view is that the increase in the exit rate (when firms fail and thus exit the market) raises average productivity, because the recession allows resources to be reallocated from failing firms to surviving ones that are more productive. But does this ‘cleansing effect’ of recessions hold when companies face financial constraints

Matching frictions, unemployment dynamics and the cost of business cycles

We investigate the welfare cost of business cycles implied by matching frictions. First, using the reduced-form of the matching model, we show that job finding rate fluctuations generate intrinsically a non-linear effect on unemployment: positive shocks reduce unemployment less than negative shocks increase it. For the observed process of the job finding rate in the US economy, this intrinsic asymmetry increases average unemployment, which leads to substantial business cycles costs. Moreover, the structural matching model embeds other non-linearities, which alter the average job finding rate and consequently the welfare cost of business cycles. Our theory suggests to subsidizing employment in order to dampen the impact of the job finding rate fluctuations on welfare.Business cycle costs; Unemployment dynamics; Matching

Unemployment Dynamics and the Cost of Business Cycles

In this paper, we investigate whether business cycles can imply sizable effects on average unemployment. First, using a reduced-form model of the labor market, we show that job finding rate fluctuations generate intrinsically a non-linear effect on unemployment: positive shocks reduce unemployment less than negative shocks increase it. For the observed process of the job finding rate in the US economy, this intrinsic asymmetry is enough to generate substantial welfare implications. This result also holds when we allow the job finding rate to be endogenous, provided the structural model is able to reproduce the volatility of the job finding rate. Moreover, the matching model embeds other non-linearities which alter the average job finding rate and so the business cycle cost.business cycle costs, unemployment dynamics

Fluctuations in hours of work and employment across age and gender IFS Working Paper W15/03 Fluctuations in hours of work and employment across ages and gender

Abstract This paper documents the heterogeneity in labor market volatility across ages and gender in the United States over 1976-2014. We separate fluctuations in hours worked into fluctuations in the average number of hours per worker (the intensive margin) and fluctuations in the number of individuals at work (the extensive margin) and examine the relative importance of these two margins for each demographic group. We then compute the contribution of each demographic group to the change in aggregate hours worked over the business cycle. We discuss the implications of our findings for theories of labor market fluctuations

Aggregate fluctuations and market frictions:The role of firm and job flows

This thesis investigates the role of the entry and exit decisions of firms and workers for aggregate fluctuations. I am interested in particular in the consequences of those reallocation flows in the presence of labor and capital markets frictions. In the first chapter, written with F. Pappadà, we develop a theoretical model to analyze the consequences of credit market frictions on the exit decisions of firms. We characterize analytically the exit decision of firms subject to credit constraints, and then investigate its implication for the response of the economy to a negative aggregate shock. We find that credit market frictions amplify the fluctuations in the exit rate as they increase the number of firms vulnerable to a negative aggregate shock. The second chapter studies the role of reallocation flows for the dynamics of aggregate productivity. I decompose aggregate productivity changes into changes in the efficiency of resource allocation across incumbent firms, changes induced by entry and exit flows and changes in within-firm productivity. I estimate this decomposition on French firm-level data from 1991 to 2006 and find that the allocation of resources between incumbent firms improves during recessions, thereby reducing the volatility of aggregate productivity. In the last chapter, written with J-O Hairault and F. Langot, we analyze the welfare cost of business cycles induced by labor market frictions. Using the standard matching model, we show that business cycles reduce social welfare by lowering average employment and average consumption.L'objectif de cette thèse est d'étudier le rôle des flux d'entrée-sortie d'emploi et d'entreprises dans la dynamique du cycle conjoncturel. Plus particulièrement, ce travail s'attache à montrer les effets de ces flux de réallocation en présence de frictions sur les marchés du travail et du capital. Dans le premier chapitre, écrit en collaboration avec F. Pappadà, nous mettons en évidence un nouveau canal d'amplification associé aux contraintes de crédit. Le modèle théorique que nous proposons prédit que la récession occasionne une chute de la production agrégée plus prononcée en présence de contraintes de crédit en raison d'une plus forte hausse du taux de destruction d'entreprises. Le second chapitre s'intéresse au rôle des flux de réallocation dans la dynamique de la productivité agrégée. Contrairement aux décompositions usuelles, la méthode que nous proposons permet de mesurer la contribution des changements d'efficacité allocative. Estimée sur données françaises sur la période 1991-2006, cette décomposition indique que les récessions contribuent à améliorer la productivité agrégée à travers une amélioration de l'allocation des ressources. Le dernier chapitre, fruit d'une collaboration avec J-O Hairault et F. Langot, examine les conséquences des fluctuations économiques sur le bien-être des agents économiques. En présence de frictions d'appariement, nous montrons que les fluctuations économiques augmentent le niveau moyen du chômage. Les fluctuations sont alors coûteuses, non seulement du fait de l'aversion des ménages pour la volatilité, mais également du fait des conséquences indirectes de cette volatilité sur le niveau moyen de consommation

All you Need is Loan. Credit Market Frictions and the Exit of Firms in Recessions

This paper investigates how credit market frictions may alter business cycle dynamics bymodifying the exit behavior of firms. We show that the extensive margin yields a significantamplification mechanism as credit frictions increase the number of firms vulnerable to afall in aggregate productivity. Unlike the standard financial accelerator, this amplificationchannel does not hinge on the sensitivity of firms’ net worth to aggregate shocks. Moreover,though credit market frictions distort the selection of exiting firms, the average idiosyncraticproductivity of firms during recessions rises more than in a frictionless economy.

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