Trade policy uncertainty as barrier to trade

This paper studies the effects of trade policy uncertainty on the extensive and the intensive margins of trade for a sample of 149 exporters at the HS6 digit level. We measure trade policy uncertainty as the gap between binding tariff commitments under trade agreements (multilateral and regional agreements) and applied tariffs- what is also known as tariffs' water. Our results show that trade policy uncertainty is an important barrier to export. On average the elimination of water increases the probability of exporting by 12 percent. A one percent decrease of water also increases export volumes by one percent. We also find that the negative impact of trade policy uncertainty is higher for countries with low quality of institutions and in the presence of global value chains. Finally, our findings show that on average trade policy uncertainty is equivalent to a level of tariffs between 1.7 and 8.7 percentage points

How Trade and Investment Agreements Affect Bilateral Foreign Direct Investment: Results from a Structural Gravity Model

The paper develops a new stand-alone structural gravity model for explaining bilateral FDI patterns. We employ the model to analyse the impact of preferential trade agreements (PTAs), bilateral investment treaties (BITs) and other policies on bilateral foreign direct investment (FDI). We use the UNCTAD global database on bilateral FDI stocks and flows. To control for the heterogeneous nature of PTAs, we employ two different indicators of PTA depth. We find that on average signing a PTA increases bilateral FDI stocks by around 30%. Nevertheless, we also find that ‘deeper’ or comprehensive PTAs (e.g., including provisions on investment, public procurement and intellectual property rights provisions) do not have a significantly different impact than signing regular PTAs. Belonging to the EU single market, on the other hand, has a strong impact and increases bilateral FDI by around 135%, and signing a BIT has an effect that is comparable to signing a PTA

Deep trade agreements and global value chains

Preferential Trade Agreements (PTAs) have become deeper over time, often encompassing a set of disciplines that go beyond traditional trade policy such as investment, competition, and intellectual property rights protection. In the policy and theory literature, a prominent argument why countries sign “deep” PTAs is to promote and facilitate the operation of Global Value Chains (GVCs). This paper exploits a new dataset on the content of PTAs and data on trade in value added and in parts and components to quantify the impact of deep trade agreements on bilateral cross-border production linkages. Results show that the positive impact of deep trade agreements on GVC integration is driven by value added trade in intermediate rather than in final goods and services. Adding a policy area to a PTA increases domestic value added of intermediates (forward GVC linkages) and foreign value added of intermediates (backward GVC linkages) by 0.48 and 0.38 percent, respectively. At the sectoral level, the positive impact of deep PTAs is higher for higher value-added services suggesting that deep agreements help countries to integrate in industries with higher levels of value added. On a larger sample of countries and years, results confirm that adding a provision to a PTA increases bilateral trade in parts and components by 0.3 percent. The content of PTAs also matters for GVC integration, but the impact varies by income group. Provisions outside the current WTO mandate (e.g. investment, competition policy) drive the effect of deep PTAs on value added trade and on North-South trade in parts and components. Provisions under the current WTO mandate (e.g. tariff reduction, customs facilitation) drive the effect of deep PTAs on South-South trade in parts and components

Record-Length 10.7 Gb/s Uncompensated Transmission Experiment over Installed Fiber Using Narrow-Filtered Duobinary and a Correlation-Sensitive MLSE-Rx

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