Exchange rate volatility, earnings uncertainty and bidirectional trade flows : empirical evidence on Ghana

Abstract: Although the empirical findings on the impact of exchange rate volatility on trade is diverse, the growing consensus in the literature appears to suggest that for developing economies, the theoretically expected negative relationship almost always exists. The paper takes a different approach to empirically assess this relationship by analysing the impact of exchange rate volatility independently on total trade, imports and exports. The intuition behind this approach is to assess exactly how exporters and importers are incentivized (differently or similarly) by exchange rate volatility costs. Whereas adequately risk aversed Ghanaian exporters in the presence of higher exchange rate volatility and absence of hedging facilities effectively compensated against exchange rate risk by increasing volume of exports, import decisions were to some extent (although not effectively) negatively affected by exchange rate volatility. The different responses by Ghanaian exporters and importers to higher exchange rate volatility costs are reflected in the relationship between volatility and total trade. The useful policy lessons and the challenges that the empirical evidence present are discussed

2010 Population and Housing Census Report: Millennium Development Goals in Ghana

According to the 2010 Population and Housing Census (PHC) report, Ghana?s population stood at 24,658,823 at the time of the 2010 census. The country has ten administrative regions and 170 districts. Ghana has one of the highest GDP per capita in West Africa and is ranked as a Lower-Middle Economy by the World Bank. The country has a diverse and rich resource base with gold, cocoa, timber, diamond, bauxite, and manganese being the most important source of foreign trade. In 2007, an oilfield which could contain up to 3 billion barrels of light oil was discovered. Although oil and gas exploration in Ghana dates back to a century, it is this latest discovery and many more afterward that have catapulted the country to be counted among the league of oil producing countries across the globe. Yet, in spite of the abundance of natural resources, a quarter of the population lives below the poverty line. However, the country has made considerable progress in reducing poverty over the last two decades. Successive nationally representative living standards surveys conducted between 1992 and 2006 (respectively, GLSS3 in 1991/2, GLSS4 in 1998/9 and GLSS5 in 2005/6) suggest that monetary poverty (measured by the level of per capita consumption) has significantly reduced. The number of poor went down from 7.9 million people (or 52 percent of the population at that time) in 1992 to 6.3 million people in 2006 (or 29 percent of the population at that time). With the rapid economic growth since the last survey in 2006, it is likely there is a further poverty reduction. Structurally, Ghana?s economy has undergone some significant transformation over the last couple of years. Ghana?s economy which until 2006 was dominated by agriculture is now led by service accounting for about 51% of national output. Agriculture accounts for about 30% (although about 55% of employed are engaged in the sector) while industry trail with only 19% of total national output. The informal economy accounts for about 86% of total employment while gold and cocoa remain the leading export earnings. This is expected to change with the commencement of oil production in commercial quantities in 2010

Revisiting the Diverse Empirical Findings on the Impact of Exchange Rate Volatility on Trade: Some Comparable Evidences from Ghana and Two other Developing Economies

Although theories suggest that exchange rate volatility negatively affect international trade yet empirical studies on this relationship have produced mixed results. Guided by the growing consensus in the literature that empirical results may be sensitive to the class of countries considered as well as the proxy of exchange rate volatility used, this paper empirically examines this relationship for Ghana by augmenting a gravity model (that controls for fixed and events specific effects) with historical volatility forecasts (which are generated using three different estimation techniques). It was observed that between 1980 and 2005, exchange rate volatility did not impact on bilateral trade for Ghana and its trade partners considered. Comparable empirical experiments conducted on Mozambique and Tanzania showed similar relationship between exchange rate volatility and bilateral trade. Evidently these empirical findings present challenges to policymakers. The paper advocates that even though a number of reasons contributed to these observations, yet the overall potential consequences of exchange rate volatility on economic performances via volatility feedback effects, currency problems as well as persistent trade deficits should be of concern to policymakers. The useful policy lessons from the empirical findings may be obvious and debated widely but are relevant more than ever today since most sub-Saharan developing countries are still burdened with persistent external debts, deficits and currency problems even after enjoying a decade of stable and favourable commodity prices between 2000 and 2010

Price of Political Uncertainty: Evidence from Ghanaian Treasury Bills

Whilst democracy facilitates stabilization, political uncertainty around elections can be costly to economic growth, especially if investors believe it increases earning uncertainty and causes them to reduce their investments until after elections. The paper conjectures that new democracies (whose political environments are widely accepted to be characterized by political uncertainty problems) will even have investors demanding some compensation to buy assets which are generally considered risk-free. Data on the Ghanaian treasury bills (T-Bills) market empirically supports this: Rates increase around elections (compared to non-election period), suggest that political uncertainty is even priced in a risk-free asset such as T-Bills, thus creating electoral cycles. The paper proposes that new democracies should endeavor to strengthen financial institutions and frameworks that promote policy credibility to help mitigate the cost of political uncertainty. Keywords: Political Uncertainty; New Democracies; Elections and Public Debt Financing JEL Classifications: D72; H59; G11; H3

Self-reported psychosocial health in obese patients before and after weight loss

Psychosocial profiles were examined in 255 morbidly obese patients attending a hospital service offering access to standard weight loss therapies. 129 patients were reassessed after at least 6-month follow-up. At baseline, 51.8% and 32.7% of patients, respectively, had evidence of anxiety and depressive disorders, 24% had severe impairments in self esteem, and 29.7% had an increased risk of eating disorders. At follow-up, weight loss from baseline was significant in all 3 therapies: diet only is 0.74±1.8 kg; pharmacotherapy is 6.7±4.2 kg; and surgery is 20.1±13.6 kg. Anxiety scores improved in all three groups (P<.05). Patients having pharmacotherapy or surgery had significant improvements in physical and work function and public distress compared to those having dietary treatment only (P<.05). Our observational data suggest that weight management services can lead to psychosocial benefit in morbidly obese patients. Well-designed studies are necessary to examine the link between weight loss and emotional health

The Effects of Blockchain Technology on Corporate Governance: Evidence from Emerging Economy

Modern developments in digitization have completely changed business structures and operating procedures. The core structure of a database can be built using the distributed technology known as blockchain, which combines data blocks and hash chains. Blockchain has been recommended by academics as one of the foundational elements of corporate governance. Though previous studies examined the impact of blockchain on firm numerous extents, few study has investigated the impact of blockchain technology on corporate governance. We examined the effects of blockchain technology on corporate governance of financial institutions in Nigeria. We use multiple regression over 121 responses. Samples were collected using a random sampling method. Results indicates that blockchain technology has positive impact on corporate governance suggesting the removal of agents as intermediaries in corporate governance through code, peers’ connectivity, and collaboration. Our results help managers transform the regulatory, financial, and entire governance structure of financial institutions