Comparison among random forest, logistic regression, and existing clinical risk scores for predicting outcomes in patients with atrial fibrillation: A report from the J-RHYTHM registry

BACKGROUND: Machine learning (ML) has emerged as a promising tool for risk stratification. However, few studies have applied ML to risk assessment of patients with atrial fibrillation (AF). HYPOTHESIS: We aimed to compare the performance of random forest (RF), logistic regression (LR), and conventional risk schemes in predicting the outcomes of AF. METHODS: We analyzed data from 7406 nonvalvular AF patients (median age 71 years, female 29.2%) enrolled in a nationwide AF registry (J‐RHYTHM Registry) and who were followed for 2 years. The endpoints were thromboembolisms, major bleeding, and all‐cause mortality. Models were generated from potential predictors using an RF model, stepwise LR model, and the thromboembolism (CHADS(2) and CHA(2)DS(2)‐VASc) and major bleeding (HAS‐BLED, ORBIT, and ATRIA) scores. RESULTS: For thromboembolisms, the C‐statistic of the RF model was significantly higher than that of the LR model (0.66 vs. 0.59, p = .03) or CHA(2)DS(2)‐VASc score (0.61, p < .01). For major bleeding, the C‐statistic of RF was comparable to the LR (0.69 vs. 0.66, p = .07) and outperformed the HAS‐BLED (0.61, p < .01) and ATRIA (0.62, p < .01) but not the ORBIT (0.67, p = .07). The C‐statistic of RF for all‐cause mortality was comparable to the LR (0.78 vs. 0.79, p = .21). The calibration plot for the RF model was more aligned with the observed events for major bleeding and all‐cause mortality. CONCLUSIONS: The RF model performed as well as or better than the LR model or existing clinical risk scores for predicting clinical outcomes of AF

The Long-Term Effects of a Kampo Medicine, Juzentaihoto, on Maintenance of Antibody Titer in Elderly People after Influenza Vaccination

We have performed a broad-ranging analysis of the adjuvant effect of a Kampo medicine, juzentaihoto (JTT), on influenza vaccination in a multicenter randomized controlled trial. In this study, the enhancing effect of JTT on antibody titer after influenza vaccination was studied for 28 weeks in elderly people who were in the high-risk group for influenza infection. In total, 91 subjects over 65 years old were recruited from four long-term-care facilities located in Chiba, Gunma, and Toyama prefectures in Japan. Participants were randomly assigned to the JTT and the control groups. Blood samples were taken at 4 weeks before vaccination, at the time of vaccination, and then at 4, 8, 12, and 24 weeks after vaccination. The hemagglutination inhibition (HI) titers against A/California/7/2009 (H1N1), A/Victoria/210/2009 (H3N2), and B/Brisbane/60/2008 were then manually measured. A significant increase in HI titer against H3N2 was observed at week 8 after vaccination in the JTT group compared with the control group (P=0.0229), and the HI titer of the JTT group significantly increased from 4 to 24 weeks (P=0.0468), compared with the control group. In conclusion, our results indicated that JTT increased and prolonged antibody production against A/Victoria/210/2009 (H3N2), in particular, after influenza vaccination

Genetic Study in Left Ventricular Noncompaction

Background—Left ventricular noncompaction (LVNC) has since been classified as a primary genetic cardiomyopathy, but the genetic basis is not fully evaluated. The aim of the present study was to identify the genetic spectrum using next-generation sequencing and to evaluate genotype–phenotype correlations in LVNC patients. Methods and Results—Using next-generation sequencing, we targeted and sequenced 73 genes related to cardiomyopathy in 102 unrelated LVNC patients. We identified 43 pathogenic variants in 16 genes in 39 patients (38%); 28 were novel variants. Sarcomere gene variants accounted for 63%, and variants in genes associated with channelopathies accounted for 12%. MYH7 and TAZ pathogenic variants were the most common, and rare variant collapsing analysis showed variants in these genes contributed to the risk of LVNC, although patients carrying MYH7 and TAZ pathogenic variants displayed different phenotypes. Patients with pathogenic variants had early age of onset and more severely decreased left ventricular ejection fractions. Survival analysis showed poorer prognosis in patients with pathogenic variants, especially those with multiple variants: All died before their first birthdays. Adverse events were noted in 17 patients, including 13 deaths, 3 heart transplants, and 1 implantable cardioverter-defibrillator insertion. Congestive heart failure at diagnosis and pathogenic variants were independent risk factors for these adverse events. Conclusions—Next-generation sequencing revealed a wide spectrum of genetic variations and a high incidence of pathogenic variants in LVNC patients. These pathogenic variants were independent risk factors for adverse events. Patients harboring pathogenic variants showed poor prognosis and should be followed closely

心房細動患者の予後予測モデルの性能評価 ーロジスティック回帰とランダムフォレストの比較ー

ISM Online Open House, 2022.6.17統計数理研究所オープンハウス（オンライン開催）、R4.6.17ポスター発