Multi-Type Branching Processes Modeling of Nosocomial Epidemics

Nosocomial epidemics are infectious diseases which spread among different types of susceptible individuals in a health-care facility. To model this type of epidemics, we use a multi-type branching process with a multivariate negative binomial offspring distribution. In particular, we estimate the basic reproduction number R0 and study its relationship with the parameters of the offspring distribution. in case of a single-type epidemic, we investigate the effect of contact tracing on the estimates for R0

Bounded rationality alters the dynamics of paediatric immunization acceptance

Interactions between disease dynamics and vaccinating behavior have been explored in many coupled behavior-disease models. Cognitive effects such as risk perception, framing, and subjective probabilities of adverse events can be important determinants of the vaccinating behaviour, and represent departures from the pure “rational” decision model that are often described as “bounded rationality”. However, the impact of such cognitive effects in the context of paediatric infectious disease vaccines has received relatively little attention. Here, we develop a disease-behavior model that accounts for bounded rationality through prospect theory. We analyze the model and compare its predictions to a reduced model that lacks bounded rationality. We find that, in general, introducing bounded rationality increases the dynamical richness of the model and makes it harder to eliminate a paediatric infectious disease. In contrast, in other cases, a low cost, highly efficacious vaccine can be refused, even when the rational decision model predicts acceptance. Injunctive social norms can prevent vaccine refusal, if vaccine acceptance is sufficiently high in the beginning of the vaccination campaign. Cognitive processes can have major impacts on the predictions of behaviourdisease models, and further study of such processes in the context of vaccination is thus warranted

Probabilistic solutions of fractional differential and partial differential equations and their Monte Carlo simulations

The work in this paper is four-fold. Firstly, we introduce an alternative approach to solve fractional ordinary differential equations as an expected value of a random time process. Using the latter, we present an interesting numerical approach based on Monte Carlo integration to simulate solutions of fractional ordinary and partial differential equations. Thirdly, we show that this approach allows us to find the fundamental solutions for fractional partial differential equations (PDEs), in which the fractional derivative in time is in the Caputo sense and the fractional in space one is in the Riesz-Feller sense. Lastly, using Riccati equation, we study families of fractional PDEs with variable coefficients which allow explicit solutions. Those solutions connect Lie symmetries to fractional PDEs

The Influence Of Social Norms On The Dynamics Of Vaccinating Behaviour For Paediatric Infectious Diseases

Definitive version as published available at: Oraby, T., Thampi, V., & Bauch, C. T. (2014). The influence of social norms on the dynamics of vaccinating behaviour for paediatric infectious diseases. Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 281(1780), 20133172–20133172., http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2013.3172Mathematical models that couple disease dynamics and vaccinating behaviour often assume that the incentive to vaccinate disappears if disease prevalence is zero. Hence, they predict that vaccine refusal should be the rule, and elimination should be difficult or impossible. In reality, countries with non-mandatory vaccination policies have usually been able to maintain elimination or very low incidence of paediatric infectious diseases for long periods of time. Here, we show that including injunctive social norms can reconcile such behaviour-incidence models to observations. Adding social norms to a coupled behaviour-incidence model enables the model to better explain pertussis vaccine uptake and disease dynamics in the UK from 1967 to 2010, in both the vaccine-scare years and the years of high vaccine coverage. The model also illustrates how a vaccine scare can perpetuate suboptimal vaccine coverage long after perceived risk has returned to baseline, pre-vaccine-scare levels. However, at other model parameter values, social norms can perpetuate depressed vaccine coverage during a vaccine scare well beyond the time when the population's baseline vaccine risk perception returns to pre-scare levels. Social norms can strongly suppress vaccine uptake despite frequent outbreaks, as observed in some small communities. Significant portions of the parameter space also exhibit bistability, meaning long-term outcomes depend on the initial conditions. Depending on the context, social norms can either support or hinder immunization goals

Probabilistic solutions of fractional differential and partial differential equations and their Monte Carlo simulations

The work in this paper is four-fold. Firstly, we introduce an alternative approach to solve fractional ordinary differential equations as an expected value of a random time process. Using the latter, we present an interesting numerical approach based on Monte Carlo integration to simulate solutions of fractional ordinary and partial differential equations. Thirdly, we show that this approach allows us to find the fundamental solutions for fractional partial differential equations (PDEs), in which the fractional derivative in time is in the Caputo sense and the fractional in space one is in the Riesz-Feller sense. Lastly, using Riccati equation, we study families of fractional PDEs with variable coefficients which allow explicit solutions. Those solutions connect Lie symmetries to fractional PDEs.Comment: 23 pages, 5 figure

Mitigating the externality of diseases of poverty through health aid

Externality exists in healthcare when an individual benefits from others being healthy as it reduces the probability of getting sick from illness. Healthy workers are considered to be the more productive labourers leading to a country’s positive economic growth over time. Several research studies have modelled disease transmission and its economic impact on a single country in isolation. We developed a two-country diseaseeconomy model that explores disease transmission and crossborder infection of disease for its impacts. The model includes aspects of a worsening and rapid transmission of disease juxtaposed by positive impacts to the economy from tourism. We found that high friction affects the gross domestic product (GDP) of the lower-income country more than the higherincome country. Health aid from one country to another can substantially help grow the GDP of both countries due to the positive externality of disease reduction. Disease has less impact to both economies if the relative cost of treatment over an alternative (e.g. vaccination) is lower than the baseline value. Providing medical supplies to another country, adopting moderate friction between the countries, and finding treatments with lower costs result in the best scenario to preserve the GDP of both countries