Indirect economic effects of a rail link along the afsluitdijk

New transport infrastructure has a myriad of short and long run effects. The effects on population and economic activity are most difficult to estimate. This paper introduces three different models to estimate the impacts of new infrastructure on labour supply and demand, and carefully explains how the interaction between the models and their outcomes should be handled. The methodology is applied to a proposal for a magnetic levitation rail system from Groningen across the Afsluitdijk to Schiphol. This benchmark it is then used to derive a qualitative assessment for different trajectories and slower type of new rail infrastructure all using the Afsluitdijk. Finally, this paper discusses the remarkable differences in the quantitative outcomes with a comparable Maglev proposal that does not use the Afsluitdijk but runs through the polders of the former Zuiderzee.

Indirect economic effects of a rail link along the afsluitdijk

New transport infrastructure has a myriad of short and long run effects. The effects on population and economic activity are most difficult to estimate. This paper introduces three different models to estimate the impacts of new infrastructure on labour supply and demand, and carefully explains how the interaction between the models and their outcomes should be handled. The methodology is applied to a proposal for a magnetic levitation rail system from Groningen across the Afsluitdijk to Schiphol. This benchmark it is then used to derive a qualitative assessment for different trajectories and slower type of new rail infrastructure all using the Afsluitdijk. Finally, this paper discusses the remarkable differences in the quantitative outcomes with a comparable Maglev proposal that does not use the Afsluitdijk but runs through the polders of the former Zuiderzee.

Effects of Transport Improvements on Commuting and Residential Choice

This paper develops a commuter location model able to explain and simulate residential location changes of commuters that result from transport improvements. The core model is based on the assumption of constant commuting time, while two extensions incorporate substitution possibilities having an upward effect on total commuting time. Estimation errors of the residential location of the working population with the existing transport system are limited to 7%. With the extended model, the impacts on commuting and residential choice are investigated for six higher speed rail connections between Amsterdam, located in the urban core of the Netherlands, and Groningen, located in its rural periphery. The model outcomes strongly influenced the public policy debate in the Netherlands.

Integral cost-benefit analysis of Maglev technology under market imperfections

The aim of this article is to assess a proposed new mode of guided high speed ground transportation, the magnetic levitation rail system (Maglev), and to compare the results of a partial cost-benefit analysis with those of an integral CBA. We deal with an urbanconglomeration as well as a core-periphery Maglev project and also try to explain why the older German Maglev proposal to connect two large, but distant cities (Hamburg and Berlin) was rejected. The empirical outcomes of our study provide policy information on the interregional redistribution of working population and labor demand and whether these projects are worthwhile in terms of national welfare. They also show that the additional economic benefits due to market imperfections vary from –1% to +38% of the direct transport benefits, depending on the type of regions connected and the general condition of the economy. Hence, a uniform ‘additional to direct benefit’ ratio does not exist.

Integral assessment of urban conglomeration versus centre-periphery maglev rail systems under market imperfections

New transport infrastructure has a myriad of short and long run effects. The effects on population and economic activity are most difficult to estimate. This paper introduces three different models to estimate the impacts of new infrastructure on labour supply and demand, and carefully explains how the interaction between the models and their outcomes should be handled. A commuter location model is developed to estimate the impact of enabling longer commuting ranges within the same commuting time on housing migration. A spatial general equilibrium model (RAEM) is developed to estimate the impacts of increased spatial competition on firms and spatial production choices. The commuter location model is then used again to estimate the residential choices of the subsequent labour migration. Finally, an interregional commuter expenditure multiplier matrix is constructed to estimate the employment effects of both housing and labour migration. The methodology developed is applied to four Transrapid (magnetic levitation rail) proposals, each following a different route within the Netherlands. The empirical outcomes show remarkable patterns of effects and differences in effects, which were not expected beforehand but be explained quite well. Thus important new insights into the spatial pattern of indirect effects of new infrastructure in general are provided.