Indirect economic effects of a rail link along the afsluitdijk

Abstract

New transport infrastructure has a myriad of short and long run effects. The effects on population and economic activity are most difficult to estimate. This paper introduces three different models to estimate the impacts of new infrastructure on labour supply and demand, and carefully explains how the interaction between the models and their outcomes should be handled. The methodology is applied to a proposal for a magnetic levitation rail system from Groningen across the Afsluitdijk to Schiphol. This benchmark it is then used to derive a qualitative assessment for different trajectories and slower type of new rail infrastructure all using the Afsluitdijk. Finally, this paper discusses the remarkable differences in the quantitative outcomes with a comparable Maglev proposal that does not use the Afsluitdijk but runs through the polders of the former Zuiderzee.