Emerging La Niña conditions in the equatorial Pacific : notes for the health community

This report provides information to assist monitoring of vulnerable communities and provide time sensitive information for interventions to reduce negative health impacts. It is prudent for health decision makers to follow the situation for any developments and monitor climate/weather forecasts as part of an early warning-early action approach. Resources and recommendations for monitoring the situation are presented

Raised temperatures over the Kericho tea estates: revisiting the climate in the East African highlands malaria debate

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Whether or not observed increases in malaria incidence in the Kenyan Highlands during the last thirty years are associated with co-varying changes in local temperature, possibly connected to global changes in climate, has been debated for over a decade. Studies, using differing data sets and methodologies, produced conflicting results regarding the occurrence of temperature trends and their likelihood of being responsible, at least in part, for the increases in malaria incidence in the highlands of western Kenya. A time series of quality controlled daily temperature and rainfall data from Kericho, in the Kenyan Highlands, may help resolve the controversy. If significant temperature trends over the last three decades have occurred then climate should be included (along with other factors such as land use change and drug resistance) as a potential driver of the observed increases in malaria in the region.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Over 30 years (1 January 1979 to 31 December 2009) of quality controlled daily observations ( > 97% complete) of maximum, minimum and mean temperature were used in the analysis of trends at Kericho meteorological station, sited in a tea growing area of Kenya's western highlands. Inhomogeneities in all the time series were identified and corrected. Linear trends were identified via a least-squares regression analysis with statistical significance assessed using a two-tailed t-test. These 'gold standard' meteorological observations were compared with spatially interpolated temperature datasets that have been developed for regional or global applications. The relationship of local climate processes with larger climate variations, including tropical sea surface temperatures (SST), and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) was also assessed.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>An upward trend of ≈0.2°C/decade was observed in all three temperature variables (P < 0.01). Mean temperature variations in Kericho were associated with large-scale climate variations including tropical SST (r = 0.50; p < 0.01). Local rainfall was found to have inverse effects on minimum and maximum temperature. Three versions of a spatially interpolated temperature data set showed markedly different trends when compared with each other and with the Kericho station observations.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>This study presents evidence of a warming trend in observed maximum, minimum and mean temperatures at Kericho during the period 1979 to 2009 using gold standard meteorological observations. Although local factors may be contributing to these trends, the findings are consistent with variability and trends that have occurred in correlated global climate processes. Climate should therefore not be dismissed as a potential driver of observed increases in malaria seen in the region during recent decades, however its relative importance compared to other factors needs further elaboration. Climate services, pertinent to the achievement of development targets such as the Millennium Development Goals and the analysis of infectious disease in the context of climate variability and change are being developed and should increase the availability of relevant quality controlled climate data for improving development decisions. The malaria community should seize this opportunity to make their needs heard.</p

Raised temperatures over the Kericho Tea Estates: revisiting the climate in the East African highlands malaria debate: Supplemental Information

Supplemental information to a study examining a time series of quality controlled daily temperature and rainfall data from Kericho, in the Kenyan Highlands, for the 30-year period 1 January 1979 to 31 December 2009

Wealth, mother's education and physical access as determinants of retail sector net use in rural Kenya

BACKGROUND: Insecticide-treated bed nets (ITN) provide real hope for the reduction of the malaria burden across Africa. Understanding factors that determine access to ITN is crucial to debates surrounding the optimal delivery systems. The influence of homestead wealth on use of nets purchased from the retail sector is well documented, however, the competing influence of mother's education and physical access to net providers is less well understood. METHODS: Between December 2004 and January 2005, a random sample of 72 rural communities was selected across four Kenyan districts. Demographic, assets, education and net use data were collected at homestead, mother and child (aged < 5 years) levels. An assets-based wealth index was developed using principal components analysis, travel time to net sources was modelled using geographic information systems, and factors influencing the use of retail sector nets explored using a multivariable logistic regression model. RESULTS: Homestead heads and guardians of 3,755 children < 5 years of age were interviewed. Approximately 15% (562) of children slept under a net the night before the interview; 58% (327) of the nets used were purchased from the retail sector. Homestead wealth (adjusted OR = 10.17, 95% CI = 5.45–18.98), travel time to nearest market centres (adjusted OR = 0.51, 95% CI = 0.37–0.72) and mother's education (adjusted OR = 2.92, 95% CI = 1.93–4.41) were significantly associated with use of retail sector nets by children aged less than 5 years. CONCLUSION: Approaches to promoting access to nets through the retail sector disadvantage poor and remote communities where mothers are less well educated

Health and Climate–Needs

This paper describes the needs for climate risk management and information services for the health sector to serve research, educational and operational needs of ministries of health and their partners, those agencies that support broader public health service provision as well as respond to epidemics and emergencies. While climate information is considered highly relevant to helping guide improvements in public health provision, to date this information is largely underutilized. We explore some of the gaps in satisfying these needs, and we make recommendations to help fill the identified gaps

Environmental Data and Surveillance

An overview of the IRI Data Library

Climate and Health in Africa

In this tour, the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) guides you through some of the work they are doing to project where meningitis may impact humans in the future under a changing climate, and illustrates their work with groups on the ground in Africa. Learn more at http://www.google.com/landing/cop15/

Developing a risk map of malaria transmission for East Africa

Background: The distribution of malaria in sub-Saharan Africa is determined largely by climatic influences on the development and survival of P. falciparum and its Anopheline vectors. This inter-relationship has been exploited in developing a limited number of predictive maps of malaria's distribution but these climate maps have limitations. Climate alone does not fully describe the complex dynamics of transmission and, in particular, human influences such as urbanization and the use of widespread anti-malarial interventions. The improved accuracy and validation of solely climatedriven maps relies on the availability of robust malariometric training data. To date, such data have been scarce. This study redresses several deficiencies of existing malaria maps for Africa through the collation of an extensive database of empirical P. falciparum prevalence data, the investigation of the relationship between prevalence and a widely-used climate-driven map, an assessment of the influence of urbanization on prevalence and finally, through the use of empirical training data to develop an improved malaria map for Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda.Methods: An extensive published and grey-literature search was conducted between 1996 and 2004 and identified 2003 P. falciparum prevalence surveys conducted among childhood populations across East Africa between 1927 and 2003. Stringent criteria were applied to select the best sample data; only randomly sampled community-based surveys, surveys with samples &gt;=50 children, surveys conducted between 1980-2004 and children aged 0-14 years, and surveys which were spatially and temporally unique. The selected data were used to investigate the association between P. falciparum prevalence and a fuzzy logic climatic suitability (PCS) map of malaria transmission, the effect of urbanization on prevalence and to train Fourier-processed multi-temporal climate surrogate data derived from meteorological satellites in order to predict prevalence for un-sampled areas. Using discriminant analysis, the top ten climatic predictor variables that distinguished best between 4 categories of malaria prevalence (0-&lt;5, 5-&lt;25%, 25-&lt;75% and &gt;=75%) were selected and these used to develop a predictive transmission map.{continued in main text ...]</p