A Kalman filter approach to Fisher effect: Evidence from Nigeria

This paper investigates evidence of a Fisher effect in Nigeria by employing quarterly CPI inflation and Nominal interest rates data. For a more robust result we conducted integration and cointegration tests in order to examine time-series properties of the variables. Using Co-integration and Kalman filter methodologies, the study did not find evidence of a full Fisher effect from 1961:1-2009:4. This result indicates that nominal interest rates do not respond one-for-one to changes in inflation rates in the long run despite the presence of positive relationship among the variables. Our study recommends the adoption of potent policies aimed at checking inflation so as to help reduce high interest rates in order to stimulate growth in the economy

Markov regime-switching autoregressive model of stock market returns in Nigeria

This study is designed to model and forecast Nigeria's stock market using the AllShare Index (ASI) as a proxy. By employing the Markov regime-switching autore-gressive (MS-AR) model with data from April 2005 to September 2019, the studyanalyzes the stock market volatility in three distinct regimes (accumulation or distri-bution - regime 1; big-move - regime 2; and excess or panic phases - regime 3) ofthe bull and bear periods. Six MS-AR candidate models are estimated and based onthe minimum AIC value, MS(3)-AR(2) is returned as the optimal model among the sixcandidate models. The MS(3)-AR(2) analysis provides evidence of regime-switchingbehaviour in the stock market. The study also shows that only extreme events canswitch the ASI returns from regime 1 to regime 2 and to regime 3, or vice versa. Itfurther specifies an average duration period of 9, 3 and 4 weeks for the accumu-lation/distribution, big-move and excess/panic regimes respectively which is an evi-dence of favorable market for investors to trade. Based on Root Mean Square Errorand Mean Absolute Error, the fitted MS-AR model is adjudged the most appropriateASI returns forecasting model. The study recommends investments in stock across theregimes that are switching between accumulation/distribution and big-move phasesfor promising returns

Influence of Rubber Effluent and NPK Fertilizer on the Performance and Fruit Quality of Snake Tomato (Trichosanthes cucumerina L. Haines) in a Three and Four Years Old (An Existing) Rubber Plantation

Small holder rubber farmer that account for over 75% of rubber production in Nigeria has withdrawn from production as a result of income gap created by the long gestation period of rubber amidst other agronomic challenges, hence the need to create an agronomic system that will incorporate other compactable short duration to generate additional and early source of income and take care of other agronomic challenges. An experiment was conducted in 2018 and 2019 cropping seasons to evaluate the influence of rubber effluent and NPK fertilizer on the performance and fruit quality of snake tomato in a three and four year old (an existing) rubber plantation. The treatments include sole rubber, sole snake tomato and their intercrop combinations with rubber effluent and NPK laid out in randomized complete block design replicated thrice. Data were collected on vine length, vine girth, number of leaves, leaf area, fruit yield and its components, nutrient content and uptake. Growth parameters measured increased with increase in rubber effluent application however NPK fertilized plants were superior to rubber effluent treated plant at increased dosage as there was no marked difference between plants treated with effluent at 70kgN-1 rubber effluent and NPK treated plants, it was also observed that the fourth year plant were higher than the third year. Nutrient content was observed to increase with fertilizer application as non fertilized had the lowest nutrient content, the least uptake was observed in the non fertilized plants

Combating Coups d’état in Africa, 1950–2014

Recent years have seen African militaries attempt coups in virtually every geographic region, from Egypt to Lesotho and Guinea to Madagascar. They have targeted established democracies, infantile democratic experiments, increasingly authoritarian executives, power vacuums brought on by leader death, and—most recently in Burundi—leaders attempting to circumvent constitutional limitations on their tenure. These continuing acts perpetrated against regimes with such varied backdrops suggests that coups still afflict a wide range of states and remain a continuing threat to leader tenure. This is in contrast to the African Union’s emphasis on curbing the practice. This paper explores the African Union’s effectiveness to combat military coups, primarily focusing on the potential for sanctions to act as a deterrent to would-be coup plotters. The paper also considers potential limitations on the African Union’s (AU’s) ability to project power against certain states. Analyses for the years 1950–2014 indicate Africa has in fact witnessed a meaningful decline in coup activity, an impact even more pronounced than the end of the Cold War. Results also indicate that the AU’s effectiveness in deterring coups is not constrained in cases where they are expected to lack leverage