Similarity analysis for the Blue Nile Basin in the Ethiopian highlands

Up until today, rainwater management practices have been promoted regardless of site-specific biophysical characteristics and regardless of the socio-economic and institutional environment. Therefore, low adoption rates and high disadoption rates of rainwater management practices are observed. In order to promote rainwater management more successfully, a paradigm change towards promotion of location-specific interventions is needed. Beyond biophysical suitability, successful implementation crucially depends on farmers’ willingness to adopt a practice. Therefore, the socio-economic and institutional environment must be taken into account in a spatially explicit way. A first step towards the promotion of site-specific rainwater management requires an understanding of which sites present similar biophysical, socio-economic and institutional characteristics within a basin. The objective of this report is twofold. Firstly, it aims at presenting the available spatial data for the Blue Nile Basin in the Ethiopian highlands. Secondly, it develops a methodology that allows identifying locations within a landscape that have similar biophysical, infrastructure, socio-economics, and governance characteristics relevant to rainwater management

Similarity analysis for the Blue Nile Basin in the Ethiopian Highlands

Up until today, rainwater management practices have been promoted regardless of site-specific biophysical characteristics and regardless of the socio-economic and institutional environment. Therefore, low adoption rates and high disadoption rates of rainwater management practices are observed. In order to promote rainwater management more successfully, a paradigm change towards promotion of location-specific interventions is needed. Beyond biophysical suitability, successful implementation crucially depends on farmers willingness to adopt a practice. Therefore, the socio-economic and institutional environment must be taken into account in a spatially explicit way. A first step towards the promotion of site-specific rainwater management requires an understanding of which sites present similar biophysical, socio-economic and institutional characteristics within a basin. The objective of this report is twofold. Firstly, it aims at presenting the available spatial data for the Blue Nile Basin in the Ethiopian highlands. Secondly, it develops a methodology that allows identifying locations within a landscape that have similar biophysical, infrastructure, socio-economics, and governance characteristics relevant to rainwater management

Why is it some households fall into poverty at the same time others are escaping poverty? Evidence from Kenya

Presents study carried out to evaluate how different households have fared over time in the communities. The aim of the study was to determine the proportions of households that Why is it some households fall into poverty at the same time others are escaping poverty? The study presents results from a study of poverty dynamics across Kenya using a participatory poverty assessment methodology known as the ‘Stages of Progress Methodology.’ This method is a relatively rapid, effective and participatory way to learn about poverty processes at both community and household levels. The approach generates very useful information for identifying the poor, and for understanding the factors that push people into and pull them out of poverty. Using this methodology, the typical stages through which people progress out of poverty were elicited for 71 Kenyan communities and 4773 households. The discussion of the different stages, and the order in which they occur, provoked lively debate among assembled villagers. The findings show that in virtually all 71 communities, house-holds progress out of poverty first by acquiring food, followed by obtaining adequate clothing, making improvements in their shelter, securing primary education for their children, starting small businesses. The paper presents the results of recent investigations, carried out specifically to gain knowledge about the reasons underlying poverty. Reasons for escape and reasons for descent operating in each livelihood region of Kenya were identified through a careful examination of poverty dynamics

Vulnerability assessment for the eastern African region to identify hotspots

The output of this task identifies vulnerable sub-regions within the five country study area that can serve as the locus of higher resolution analysis and for testing adaptation strategies

A framework for targeting and scaling-out interventions in agricultural systems

There are real needs and opportunities for well-targeted research and development to improve the livelihoods of farmers while at the same time addressing natural resource constraints. The suitability and adoption of interventions depends on a variety of bio-physical and socio- economic factors. While their impacts -when adopted and out-scaled- are likely to be highly heterogeneous, not only spatially and temporally but also in terms of the stakeholders affected. In this document we provide generic guidelines for evaluating and prioritising potential interventions through an iterative process of mapping out recommendation domains and estimating impacts. As such, we hope to contribute to the inclusion of such important considerations when agricultural innovations are targeted and scaled out

Classifying livestock production systems for targeting agricultural research and development in a rapidly changing world

A myriad of agricultural and livestock production systems co-exist in the developing countries. Agricultural research for development should therefore aim at delivering strategies that are well targeted to the heterogeneous landscapes and diverse biophysical and socioeconomic contexts the agricultural production system is operating in. To that end, in the recent past several approaches to spatially delineate landscapes with broadly similar production strategies, constraints and investment opportunities, have been applied. The mapped Seré and Steinfeld livestock production classification, for example, has been widely used for the targeting of pro-poor livestock intervention within ILRI. In this paper we describe potential methodologies for the inclusion of crop-specificity and intensification in the existing Seré and Steinfeld livestock systems classification. We also present some first broad-brush future projections of these detailed crop-livestock production systems. A number of example applications are discussed and recommendations for future improvement and use are made. While the production system classifications are especially useful for bio-physical applications such as livestock-environment interactions and feed assessments, the links with socioeconomic factors still need to be explored further. Also, it is only one of the necessary building blocks for better targeting of research and development efforts. We, however,believe that the proposed system classifications will be of use to a variety of agricultural and livestock scientists and development agents alike. In addition, they serve as practical examples making the case for the use of spatial stratification when targeting agricultural research and development

Climate variability and climate change and their impacts on Kenya’s agricultural sector

Report of the project “Adaptation of Smallholder Agriculture to Climate Change in Kenya”

Mapping climate vulnerability and poverty in Africa

The world’s climate is continuing to change at rates that are projected to be unprecedented in recent human history. Some models are now indicating that the temperature increases to 2100 may be larger than previously estimated in 2001. The impacts of climate change are likely to be considerable in tropical regions. Developing countries are generally considered more vulnerable to the effects of climate change than more developed countries, largely attributed to a low capacity to adapt in the developing world. Of the developing countries, many in Africa are seen as being the most vulnerable to climate variability and change. High levels of vulnerability and low adaptive capacity in the developing world have been linked to factors such as a high reliance on natural resources, limited ability to adapt financially and institutionally, low per capita GDP and high poverty, and a lack of safety nets. The challenges for development are considerable, not least because the impacts are complex and highly uncertain. The overall aims of DFID’s new research programme on climate change and development in sub-Saharan Africa are to improve the ability of poor people to be more resilient to current climate variability as well as to the risks associated with longer-term climate change. The programme is designed to address the knowledge implications of interacting and multiple stresses, such as HIV/AIDS and climate change, on the vulnerability of the poor, and it will concentrate on approaches that work where government structures are weak. To help identify where to locate specific research activities and where to put in place uptake pathways for research outputs, information is required that relates projected climate change with vulnerability data. ILRI undertook some exploratory vulnerability mapping for the continent in late 2005 and early 2006, building on some livestock poverty mapping work carried out in 2002. The work described here is a small piece of a larger activity that involved the commissioning of several studies on climate change and the identification of the critical researchable issues related to development. A project inception meeting was held with research collaborators, to discuss analytical approaches and assess data availability. Over the succeeding few months, data were assembled and analysis undertaken. This involved the downscaling of outputs from several coupled Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models (GCMs) for four different scenarios of the future, and possible changes in lengths of the growing period were estimated for Africa to 2050 for several different combinations of GCM and scenario (we used the SRES scenarios of the IPCC). Results are presented on the basis of agricultural system types by country, using a systems classification as a proxy for the livelihood options available to natural resource users. From this, we identified areas that appear to be particularly prone to climate change impacts. These include arid-semiarid rangeland and the drier mixed systems across broad swathes of the continent, particularly in southern Africa and the Sahel, and coastal systems in eastern Africa. The next stage was to consider the biophysical and social vulnerability of these and other areas. To characterise sub-Saharan Africa in terms of vulnerability, on the same country-by-system basis as was done for the climate change impacts, a set of proxy indicators developed at the workshop was pragmatically assessed in relation to data sources, while being guided by the experiences of others in the area. A final set of fourteen indicators was used; three are associated with natural capital, one with physical capital, two with social capital, six with human capital, and two with financial capital. We carried out statistical analysis and reduced this set of fourteen proxy indicators to four components, which were then used to construct an “overall” indicator of vulnerability, and systemsby- countries were then classified in quartiles. These results were then qualitatively combined with the climate change hotspot analysis. The results should be treated as indicative only, and we would caution strongly against their over-interpretation, particularly because the uncertainty associated with them is not yet known. Results do indicate, however, that many vulnerable regions are likely to be adversely affected in sub-Saharan Africa. These include the mixed arid-semiarid systems in the Sahel, arid-semiarid rangeland systems in parts of eastern Africa, the systems in the Great Lakes 4 region of eastern Africa, the coastal regions of eastern Africa, and many of the drier zones of southern Africa. There are several limitations to the analysis and to the availability of data for such work. For the future, considerable emphasis needs to be placed on collaborative efforts to collect and greatly improve the store of baseline information, on understanding very well the needs of potential users, on developing more flexible and generic frameworks for assessing vulnerability, taking advantage of the experiences of others in vulnerability assessment work in developing-country contexts through southsouth collaboration, and on incorporating scenario analysis into the impact assessment framework. The project also involved a study of the potential uses of information concerning climate variability and climate change for effective decision-making. A small survey of potential users was carried out. Findings of the survey confirm the results of other scoping studies: there are broad needs across many different sectors in terms of capacity building and opportunities for research in the future, including vulnerability mapping at different levels. The report concludes with a discussion of the feasibility of expanding the methods and tools used here to develop a tool box that could be used for cross-sectoral ex-ante assessment of interventions related to climate change and coping mechanisms. There are several challenges that have to be addressed, but there are good prospects for developing a useful framework. The work has highlighted two other key points. First, even allowing for the technical problems and uncertainties associated with the analysis, it is clear that macro-level analyses, while useful, can hide enormous variability concerning what may be complex responses to climate change. There is considerable heterogeneity in households’ access to resources, poverty levels, and ability to cope. Vulnerability and impact assessment work can certainly be usefully guided by macro-level analyses, but ultimately this work has to be done at regional and national levels. Second, these results have underlined that local responses to climate change through time are not necessarily linear. In terms of adaptation strategies, far more work is needed on the dynamics of change through time and on the dynamics of household responses. If adaptation itself has to be seen as an essentially dynamic, continuous and non-linear process, this has considerable implications for the tools and methods needed to guide it, and for the indicators and threshold analyses that will be needed. The sciences of climate modelling and vulnerability assessment are developing rapidly, and over time some of the key technical issues that remain are likely to be resolved. At the same time, there are several other issues that have to be addressed. One is the necessity of communities starting to take centre stage in conducting vulnerability analysis and implementation to enhance their long-term capacities for adaptation. Another is the organisational changes that are needed to face the threat that climate change poses to development: climate change is inevitable, and it will add burdens to those who are already poor and vulnerable. A third issue is that Africa appears to have some of the greatest burdens of climate change impacts, certainly from the human health and agricultural perspectives; it is a region with generally limited ability to cope and adapt; and it has some of the lowest per capita emissions of the greenhouse gases that contribute to global warming. The likely impacts of climate change thus present a global ethical challenge as well as a development and scientific challenge, and this challenge has to be addressed by all of us