Technical summary

Human interference with the climate system is occurring. Climate change poses risks for human and natural systems. The assessment of impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability in the Working Group II contribution to the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report (WGII AR5) evaluates how patterns of risks and potential benefits are shifting due to climate change and how risks can be reduced through mitigation and adaptation. It recognizes that risks of climate change will vary across regions and populations, through space and time, dependent on myriad factors including the extent of mitigation and adaptation

Climate change and the genus <i>Rhipicephalus</i> (Acari : Ixodidae) in Africa

The suitability of present and future climates for 30 Rhipicephalus species in Africa are predicted using a simple climate envelope model as well as a Division of Atmospheric Research Limited-Area Model (DARLAM). DARLAM's predictions are compared with the mean outcome from two global circulation models. East Africa and South Africa are considered the most vulnerable regions on the continent to climate-induced changes in tick distributions and tick-borne diseases. More than 50% of the species examined show potential range expansion and more than 70% of this range expansion is found in economically important tick species. More than 20% of the species experienced range shifts of between 50 and 100%. There is also an increase in tick species richness in the south-western regions of the sub-continent. Actual range alterations due to climate change may be even greater since factors like land degradation and human population increase have not been included in this modelling process. However, these predictions are also subject to the effect that climate change may have on the hosts of the ticks, particularly those that favour a restricted range of hosts. Where possible, the anticipated biological implications of the predicted changes are explored

Simulating tick distributions over sub-Saharan Africa: The use of observed and simulated climate surfaces

Aim: A broad suit of climate data sets is becoming available for use in predictive species modelling. We compare the efficacy of using interpolated climate surfaces [Center for Resource and Environmental Studies (CRES) and Climate Research Unit (CRU)] or high-resolution model-derived climate data [Division of Atmospheric Research limited-area model (DARLAM)] for predictive species modelling, using tick distributions from sub-Saharan Africa. Location: The analysis is restricted to sub-Saharan Africa. The study area was subdivided into 3000 grids cells with a resolution of 60 x 60 km. Methods: Species distributions were predicted using an established multivariate climate envelope modelling approach and three very different climate data sets. The recorded variance in the climate data sets was quantified by employing omnidirectional variograms. To further compare the interpolated tick distributions that flowed from using three climate data sets, we calculated true positive (TP) predictions, false negative (FN) predictions as well as the proportional overlaps between observed and modelled tick distributions. In addition, the effect of tick data set size on the performance of the climate data sets was evaluated by performing random draws of known tick distribution records without replacement. Results: The predicted distributions were consistently wider ranging than the known records when using any of the three climate data sets. However, the proportional overlap between predicted and known distributions varied as follows: for Rhipicephalus appendiculatus Neumann (Acari: Ixodidae), these were 60%, 60% and 70%; for Rhipicephalus longus Neumann (Acari: Ixodidae) 60%, 57% and 75%; for Rhipicephalus zambeziensis Walker, Norval &amp; Corwin (Acari: Ixodidae) 57%, 51% and 62%, and for Rhipicephalus capensis Koch (Acari: Ixodidae) 70%, 60% and 60% using the CRES, CRU and DARLAM climate data sets, respectively. All data sets were sensitive to data size but DARLAM performed better when using smaller species data sets. At a 20% data subsample level, DARLAM was able to capture more than 50% of the known records and captured more than 60% of known records at higher subsample levels. Main conclusions: The use of data derived from high-resolution nested climate models (e.g. DARLAM) provided equal or even better species distribution modelling performance. As the model is dynamic and process based, the output data are available at the modelled resolution, and are not hamstrung by the sampling intensity of observed climate data sets (c. one sample per 30,000 km2 for Africa). In addition, when exploring the biodiversity consequences of climate change, these modelled outputs form a more useful basis for comparison with modelled future climate scenarios.Articl

Simulating tick distributions over sub-Saharan Africa: The use of observed and simulated climate surfaces

Aim: A broad suit of climate data sets is becoming available for use in predictive species modelling. We compare the efficacy of using interpolated climate surfaces [Center for Resource and Environmental Studies (CRES) and Climate Research Unit (CRU)] or high-resolution model-derived climate data [Division of Atmospheric Research limited-area model (DARLAM)] for predictive species modelling, using tick distributions from sub-Saharan Africa. Location: The analysis is restricted to sub-Saharan Africa. The study area was subdivided into 3000 grids cells with a resolution of 60 x 60 km. Methods: Species distributions were predicted using an established multivariate climate envelope modelling approach and three very different climate data sets. The recorded variance in the climate data sets was quantified by employing omnidirectional variograms. To further compare the interpolated tick distributions that flowed from using three climate data sets, we calculated true positive (TP) predictions, false negative (FN) predictions as well as the proportional overlaps between observed and modelled tick distributions. In addition, the effect of tick data set size on the performance of the climate data sets was evaluated by performing random draws of known tick distribution records without replacement. Results: The predicted distributions were consistently wider ranging than the known records when using any of the three climate data sets. However, the proportional overlap between predicted and known distributions varied as follows: for Rhipicephalus appendiculatus Neumann (Acari: Ixodidae), these were 60%, 60% and 70%; for Rhipicephalus longus Neumann (Acari: Ixodidae) 60%, 57% and 75%; for Rhipicephalus zambeziensis Walker, Norval &amp; Corwin (Acari: Ixodidae) 57%, 51% and 62%, and for Rhipicephalus capensis Koch (Acari: Ixodidae) 70%, 60% and 60% using the CRES, CRU and DARLAM climate data sets, respectively. All data sets were sensitive to data size but DARLAM performed better when using smaller species data sets. At a 20% data subsample level, DARLAM was able to capture more than 50% of the known records and captured more than 60% of known records at higher subsample levels. Main conclusions: The use of data derived from high-resolution nested climate models (e.g. DARLAM) provided equal or even better species distribution modelling performance. As the model is dynamic and process based, the output data are available at the modelled resolution, and are not hamstrung by the sampling intensity of observed climate data sets (c. one sample per 30,000 km2 for Africa). In addition, when exploring the biodiversity consequences of climate change, these modelled outputs form a more useful basis for comparison with modelled future climate scenarios.Articl