Stylised Facts and the Contribution of Simulation to the Economic Analysis of Budgeting

The application of computer simulation as a research method raises two important questions: (1) Does simulation really offer added value over established methods? (2) How can the danger of arbitrariness caused by the extended modelling possibilities be minimised? We present the concept of stylised facts as a methodological basis for approaching these questions systematically. In particular, stylised facts provide a point of reference for a comparative analysis of models intended to explain an observable phenomenon. This is shown with reference to a recent discussion in the "economic analysis of accounting" literature where established methods, i.e. game theory, as well as computer simulations are used: the susceptibility of the "Groves mechanism" to collusion. Initially, we identify six stylised facts on the stability of collusion in empirical studies. These facts serve as a basis for the subsequent comparison of four theoretical models with reference to the above questions: (1) We find that the simulation models of Krapp and Deliano offer added value in comparison to the game theoretical models. They can be related to more stylised facts, achieve a better reproduction and exhibit far greater potential for incorporating yet unaddressed stylised facts. (2) Considered in the light of the stylised facts to which the models can be related, Deliano's simulation model exhibits considerable arbitrariness in model design and lacks information on its robustness. In contrast, Krapp demonstrates that this problem is not inherent to the method. His simulation model methodically extends its game theoretical predecessors, leaving little room for arbitrary model design or questionable parameter calibration. All in all, the stylisedfactsconcept proved to be very useful in dealing with the questions simulation researchers are confronted with. Moreover, a "research landscape" emerges from the derived stylised facts pinpointing issues yet to be addressed.Computer Simulation, Stylised Facts, Methodology, Groves Mechanism, Collusion, Game Theory

Airfoil in a high amplitude oscillating stream

Dieser Beitrag ist mit Zustimmung des Rechteinhabers aufgrund einer (DFG geförderten) Allianz- bzw. Nationallizenz frei zugänglich.This publication is with permission of the rights owner freely accessible due to an Alliance licence and a national licence (funded by the DFG, German Research Foundation) respectively.A combined theoretical and experimental investigation was carried out with the objective of evaluating theoretical predictions relating to a two-dimensional airfoil subjected to high amplitude harmonic oscillation of the free stream at constant angle of attack. Current theoretical approaches were reviewed and extended for the purposes of quantifying the bound, unsteady vortex sheet strength along the airfoil chord. This resulted in a closed form solution that is valid for arbitrary reduced frequencies and amplitudes. In the experiments, the bound, unsteady vortex strength of a symmetric 18 % thick airfoil at low angles of attack was measured in a dedicated unsteady wind tunnel at maximum reduced frequencies of 0.1 and at velocity oscillations less than or equal to 50 %. With the boundary layer tripped near the leading edge and mid-chord, the phase and amplitude variations of the lift coefficient corresponded reasonably well with the theory. Near the maximum lift coefficient overshoot, the data exhibited an additional high-frequency oscillation. Comparisons of the measured and predicted vortex sheet indicated the existence of a recirculation bubble upstream of the trailing edge which sheds into the wake and modifies the Kutta condition. Without boundary layer tripping, a mid-chord bubble is present that strengthens during flow deceleration and its shedding produces a dramatically different effect. Instead of a lift coefficient overshoot, as per the theory, the data exhibit a significant undershoot. This undershoot is also accompanied by high-frequency oscillations that are characterized by the bubble shedding. In summary, the location of bubble and its subsequent shedding play decisive roles in the resulting temporal aerodynamic loads

Stylised Facts and the Contribution of Simulation to the

application of computer simulation as a research method raises two important questions: (1) Does simulation really offer added value over established methods? (2) How can the danger of arbitrariness caused by the extended modelling possibilities be minimised? We present the concept of stylised facts as a methodological basis for approaching these questions systematically. In particular, stylised facts provide a point of reference for a comparative analysis of models intended to explain an observable phenomenon. This is shown with reference to a recent discussion in the "economic analysis of accounting " literature where established methods, i.e. game theory, as well as computer simulations are used: the susceptibility of the "Groves mechanism " to collusion. Initially, we identify six stylised facts on the stability of collusion in empirical studies. These facts serve as a basis for the subsequent comparison of four theoretical models with reference to the above questions: (1) We find that the simulation models of Krapp and Deliano offer added value in comparison to the game theoretical models. They can be related to more stylised facts, achieve a better reproduction and exhibit far greater potential for incorporating yet unaddressed stylised facts. (2) Considered in the light of the stylised facts to which the models can be related, Deliano's simulation model exhibit

Characteristics and outcomes of SARS-CoV-2 breakthrough infections among double-vaccinated and triple-vaccinated patients with inflammatory rheumatic diseases

Objective To analyse the clinical profile of SARS-CoV-2 breakthrough infections in at least double-vaccinated patients with inflammatory rheumatic diseases (IRDs).Methods Data from the physician-reported German COVID-19-IRD registry collected between February 2021 and July 2022 were analysed. SARS-CoV-2 cases were stratified according to patients’ vaccination status as being not vaccinated, double-vaccinated or triple-vaccinated prior to SARS-CoV-2 infection and descriptively compared. Independent associations between demographic and disease features and outcome of breakthrough infections were estimated by multivariable logistic regression.Results In total, 2314 cases were included in the analysis (unvaccinated n=923, double-vaccinated n=551, triple-vaccinated n=803, quadruple-vaccinated n=37). SARS-CoV-2 infections occurred after a median of 151 (range 14–347) days in patients being double-vaccinated, and after 88 (range 14–270) days in those with a third vaccination. Hospitalisation was required in 15% of unvaccinated, 8% of double-vaccinated and 3% of triple-vaccinated/quadruple-vaccinated patients (p<0.001). Mortality was 2% in unvaccinated, 1.8% in the double-vaccinated and 0.6% in triple-vaccinated patients. Compared with unvaccinated patients, double-vaccinated (OR 0.43, 95% CI 0.29 to 0.62) and triple-vaccinated (OR 0.13, 95% CI 0.08 to 0.21) patients showed a significant lower risk of COVID-19-related hospitalisation. Using multivariable analysis, the third vaccination was significantly associated with a lower risk for COVID-19-related death (OR 0.26; 95% CI 0.01 to 0.73).Conclusions Our cross-sectional data of COVID-19 infections in patients with IRD showed a significant reduction of hospitalisation due to infection in double-vaccinated or triple-vaccinated patients compared with those without vaccination and even a significant reduction of COVID-19-related deaths in triple-vaccinated patients. These data strongly support the beneficial effect of COVID-19 vaccination in patients with IRD.Trial registration number EuDRACT 2020-001958-21

Rheumatoid arthritis

Rheumatoid arthritis (RA) is a chronic, inflammatory, autoimmune disease that primarily affects the joints and is associated with autoantibodies that target various molecules including modified self-epitopes. The identification of novel autoantibodies has improved diagnostic accuracy, and newly developed classification criteria facilitate the recognition and study of the disease early in its course. New clinical assessment tools are able to better characterize disease activity states, which are correlated with progression of damage and disability, and permit improved follow-up. In addition, better understanding of the pathogenesis of RA through recognition of key cells and cytokines has led to the development of targeted disease-modifying antirheumatic drugs. Altogether, the improved understanding of the pathogenetic processes involved, rational use of established drugs and development of new drugs and reliable assessment tools have drastically altered the lives of individuals with RA over the past 2 decades. Current strategies strive for early referral, early diagnosis and early start of effective therapy aimed at remission or, at the least, low disease activity, with rapid adaptation of treatment if this target is not reached. This treat-to-target approach prevents progression of joint damage and optimizes physical functioning, work and social participation. In this Primer, we discuss the epidemiology, pathophysiology, diagnosis and management of RA