A maximum likelihood estimator of a Markov model for disease activity in Crohn's disease and ulcerative colitis for annually aggregated partial observations.

Crohn's disease (CD) and ulcerative colitis (UC) are chronic inflammatory bowel diseases that have a remitting, relapsing nature. During relapse, they are treated with drugs and surgery. The present study was based on individual data from patients diagnosed with CD or UC at Herlev University Hospital, Copenhagen, Denmark, during 1991 to 1993. The data were aggregated over calendar years; for each year, the number of relapses and the number of surgical operations were recorded. Our aim was to estimate Markov models for disease activity in CD and UC, in terms of relapse and remission, with a cycle length of 1 month. The purpose of these models was to enable evaluation of interventions that would shorten relapses or postpone future relapses. An exact maximum likelihood estimator was developed that disaggregates the yearly observations into monthly transition probabilities between remission and relapse. These probabilities were allowed to be dependent on the time since start of relapse and on the time since start of remission, respectively. The estimator, initially slow, was successfully optimized to shorten the execution time. The estimated disease activity model for CD fits well to observed data and has good face validity. The disease activity model is less suitable for UC due to its transient nature through the presence of curative surgery

Mortality after Hospitalization for Pneumonia among Individuals with HIV, 1995–2008: A Danish Cohort Study

BACKGROUND: HIV-infected persons are at increased risk of pneumonia, even with highly active antiretroviral treatment (HAART). We examined the impact of pneumonia on mortality and identified prognostic factors for death among HIV-infected. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: In a nationwide, population-based cohort of individuals with HIV, we included persons hospitalized with pneumonia from the Danish National Hospital Registry and obtained mortality data from the Danish Civil Registration System. Comparing individuals with and without pneumonia, we used Poisson regression to estimate relative mortality and logistic regression to examine prognostic factors for death following pneumonia. From January 1, 1995, to July 1, 2008, we observed 699 episodes of first hospitalization for pneumonia among 4,352 HIV patients. Ninety-day mortality after pneumonia decreased from 22.4% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 16.5%-28.9%) in 1995-1996 to 8.4% (95% CI: 6.1%-11.6%) in 2000-2008. Mortality remained elevated for more than a year after hospitalization for pneumonia: adjusted mortality rate ratio 5.38 (95% CI: 4.27-6.78), 1.80 (95% CI: 1.36-2.37), and 1.62 (95% CI: 1.32-2.00) for days 0-90, 91-365, and 366+, respectively. The following variables predicted mortality within 90 days following hospitalization for pneumonia (adjusted Odds Ratios): male sex (3.77, 95% CI: 1.37-10.4), Charlson Comorbidity Index score > or = 2 (3.86, 95% CI: 2.19-6.78); no current HAART (3.58, 95% CI: 1.83-6.99); history of AIDS (2.46, 95% CI: 1.40-4.32); age per 10 year increase (1.43, 95% CI: 1.11-1.85); and CD4+ cell count < or = 200 (2.52, 95% CI: 1.37-4.65). CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: The first hospitalization for pneumonia among HIV-infected individuals was associated with elevated risk of death up to more than a year later. Use of HAART decreased the risk, independent of current CD4+ cell count. Prognosis following pneumonia improved over calendar time