Vulnerability assessment of the European natural gas supply

As indigenous natural gas reserves within the European Union (EU) decline, higher gas imports are expected in order to meet future EU gas demand. Natural gas will be transported across considerable distances from regions of gas reserves to European consumers. This raises security of gas supply concerns especially for EU countries that depend heavily on a single supply source or major transit route. A linear programming model of the European gas supplies was developed and used to investigate the impact of loss of the Ukraine transit capacity on gas supply from Russia to Europe. Two demand scenarios – that is a reference case and a high demand case in the winter of 2014/2015 were investigated. The results have shown that gas flows on interconnectors and from storage and liquefied natural gas import terminals compensated for the supply shortfall. Furthermore, to mitigate the effect of the supply shortage, the impact of increasing the capacities of selected pipelines within the EU was compared against increasing the maximum storage withdrawal rates in southeast Europe. Higher storage withdrawal rates achieved lower demand curtailment than the additional interconnector capacity in both scenarios

Vulnerability assessment of the European natural gas supply

As indigenous natural gas reserves within the European Union (EU) decline, higher gas imports are expected in order to meet future EU gas demand. Natural gas will be transported across considerable distances from regions of gas reserves to European consumers. This raises security of gas supply concerns especially for EU countries that depend heavily on a single supply source or major transit route. A linear programming model of the European gas supplies was developed and used to investigate the impact of loss of the Ukraine transit capacity on gas supply from Russia to Europe. Two demand scenarios -that is a reference case and a high demand case in the winter of 2014/2015 were investigated. The results have shown that gas flows on interconnectors and from storage and liquefied natural gas import terminals compensated for the supply shortfall. Furthermore, to mitigate the effect of the supply shortage, the impact of increasing the capacities of selected pipelines within the EU was compared against increasing the maximum storage withdrawal rates in southeast Europe. Higher storage withdrawal rates achieved lower demand curtailment than the additional interconnector capacity in both scenarios. Notation DZ i,t unserved gas demand at node i at time t (million cubic metres (mcm)/d) DZC i cost of unserved demand at node i (E/mcm) IC s,t storage injection cost at facility s at time t (E/mcm) i,j node indices L l,t LNG volumes at a regasification terminal l at time t (mcm/d) LC l,t cost of LNG delivery at terminal l at time t (E/mcm) l liquified natural gas regasification terminal index M t node-flow incidence matrix PR i,t production/supply volume at node i at time t (mcm/d) PRC i,t cost of gas production/border supply cost at node i at time t (E/mcm) Q eq equivalent flow capacity in the single equivalent pipeline Q i original individual pipeline capacity S in s;t gas volumes injected into a storage facility s at time t (mcm/d) S out s;t gas volume withdrawn from a storage facility s at time t (mcm/d) s storage index T temperature (K) TC i,j,t cost of gas transport between node i and node j at time t (E/mcm) TQ i,j,t gas volumes transported between node i and node j at time t (mcm/d) t time period in days WC s,t storage withdrawal cost at facility s at time t (E/mcm

Vulnerability assessment of the European natural gas supply

As indigenous natural gas reserves within the European Union (EU) decline, higher gas imports are expected in order to meet future EU gas demand. Natural gas will be transported across considerable distances from regions of gas reserves to European consumers. This raises security of gas supply concerns especially for EU countries that depend heavily on a single supply source or major transit route. A linear programming model of the European gas supplies was developed and used to investigate the impact of loss of the Ukraine transit capacity on gas supply from Russia to Europe. Two demand scenarios -that is a reference case and a high demand case in the winter of 2014/2015 were investigated. The results have shown that gas flows on interconnectors and from storage and liquefied natural gas import terminals compensated for the supply shortfall. Furthermore, to mitigate the effect of the supply shortage, the impact of increasing the capacities of selected pipelines within the EU was compared against increasing the maximum storage withdrawal rates in southeast Europe. Higher storage withdrawal rates achieved lower demand curtailment than the additional interconnector capacity in both scenarios. Notation DZ i,t unserved gas demand at node i at time t (million cubic metres (mcm)/d) DZC i cost of unserved demand at node i (E/mcm) IC s,t storage injection cost at facility s at time t (E/mcm) i,j node indices L l,t LNG volumes at a regasification terminal l at time t (mcm/d) LC l,t cost of LNG delivery at terminal l at time t (E/mcm) l liquified natural gas regasification terminal index M t node-flow incidence matrix PR i,t production/supply volume at node i at time t (mcm/d) PRC i,t cost of gas production/border supply cost at node i at time t (E/mcm) Q eq equivalent flow capacity in the single equivalent pipeline Q i original individual pipeline capacity S in s;t gas volumes injected into a storage facility s at time t (mcm/d) S out s;t gas volume withdrawn from a storage facility s at time t (mcm/d) s storage index T temperature (K) TC i,j,t cost of gas transport between node i and node j at time t (E/mcm) TQ i,j,t gas volumes transported between node i and node j at time t (mcm/d) t time period in days WC s,t storage withdrawal cost at facility s at time t (E/mcm

Vulnerability assessment of the European natural gas supply

As indigenous natural gas reserves within the European Union (EU) decline, higher gas imports are expected in order to meet future EU gas demand. Natural gas will be transported across considerable distances from regions of gas reserves to European consumers. This raises security of gas supply concerns especially for EU countries that depend heavily on a single supply source or major transit route. A linear programming model of the European gas supplies was developed and used to investigate the impact of loss of the Ukraine transit capacity on gas supply from Russia to Europe. Two demand scenarios – that is a reference case and a high demand case in the winter of 2014/2015 were investigated. The results have shown that gas flows on interconnectors and from storage and liquefied natural gas import terminals compensated for the supply shortfall. Furthermore, to mitigate the effect of the supply shortage, the impact of increasing the capacities of selected pipelines within the EU was compared against increasing the maximum storage withdrawal rates in southeast Europe. Higher storage withdrawal rates achieved lower demand curtailment than the additional interconnector capacity in both scenarios