Dynamics and risk of transmission of bovine tuberculosis in the emerging dairy regions of Ethiopia

The Ethiopian government has several initiatives to expand and intensify the dairy industry; however, the risk of bovine tuberculosis (bTB) spread is a challenge. To assess the rate of expansion and risk factors for transmission of bTB within-herds, we carried out a repeated cross-sectional survey at two time points, 2016/17 and 2018, in three regional cities, namely, Gondar, Hawassa and Mekelle, representing the emerging dairy belts of Ethiopia. The total number of herds involved was 128, comprising an average of 2303 cattle in each round. The Single Intradermal Comparative Cervical Tuberculin (SICCT) test was used to identify reactor status and data on herd-level risk factors were collected using a structured questionnaire. In the first survey, the apparent prevalence of bTB, as measured by the SICCT test, was 4.5% (95% CI 3.7-5.4%) at the individual animal-level and 24% (95% CI 17.5-32%) at the herd-level. There was no statistically significant change in the overall apparent prevalence or regional distribution at the second survey, consistent with the infection being endemic. The incidence rate was estimated at 3.6 (95% CI 2.8-4.5) and 6.6 (95% CI 3.0-12.6) cases/100 cattle (or herd)-years at the animal- and herd-levels, respectively. Risk factors significantly associated with the within-herd transmission of bTB were age group and within-herd apparent prevalence at the start of the observation period. We noted that farmers voluntarily took steps to remove reactor cattle from their herds as a consequence of the information shared after the first survey. Removal of reactors between surveys was associated with a reduced risk of transmission within these herds. However, with no regulatory barriers to the sale of reactor animals, such actions could potentially lead to further spread between herds. We therefore advocate the importance of setting up regulations and then establishing a systematic bTB surveillance programme to monitor the impact prior to implementing any control measures in Ethiopia

Epidemiology of Mycobacterium tuberculosis lineages and strain clustering within urban and peri-urban settings in Ethiopia

Background Previous work has shown differential predominance of certain Mycobacterium tuberculosis (M. tb) lineages and sub-lineages among different human populations in diverse geographic regions of Ethiopia. Nevertheless, how strain diversity is evolving under the ongoing rapid socio-economic and environmental changes is poorly understood. The present study investigated factors associated with M. tb lineage predominance and rate of strain clustering within urban and peri-urban settings in Ethiopia. Methods Pulmonary Tuberculosis (PTB) and Cervical tuberculous lymphadenitis (TBLN) patients who visited selected health facilities were recruited in the years of 2016 and 2017. A total of 258 M. tb isolates identified from 163 sputa and 95 fine-needle aspirates (FNA) were characterized by spoligotyping and compared with international M.tb spoligotyping patterns registered at the SITVIT2 databases. The molecular data were linked with clinical and demographic data of the patients for further statistical analysis. Results From a total of 258 M. tb isolates, 84 distinct spoligotype patterns that included 58 known Shared International Type (SIT) patterns and 26 new or orphan patterns were identified. The majority of strains belonged to two major M. tb lineages, L3 (35.7%) and L4 (61.6%). The observed high percentage of isolates with shared patterns (n = 200/258) suggested a substantial rate of overall clustering (77.5%). After adjusting for the effect of geographical variations, clustering rate was significantly lower among individuals co-infected with HIV and other concomitant chronic disease. Compared to L4, the adjusted odds ratio and 95% confidence interval (AOR; 95% CI) indicated that infections with L3 M. tb strains were more likely to be associated with TBLN [3.47 (1.45, 8.29)] and TB-HIV co-infection [2.84 (1.61, 5.55)]. Conclusion Despite the observed difference in strain diversity and geographical distribution of M. tb lineages, compared to earlier studies in Ethiopia, the overall rate of strain clustering suggests higher transmission and warrant more detailed investigations into the molecular epidemiology of TB and related factors

Network analysis of dairy cattle movement and associations with bovine tuberculosis spread and control in emerging dairy belts of Ethiopia

Background: Dairy cattle movement could be a major risk factor for the spread of bovine tuberculosis (BTB) in emerging dairy belts of Ethiopia. Dairy cattle may be moved between farms over long distances, and hence understanding the route and frequency of the movements is essential to establish the pattern of spread of BTB between farms, which could ultimately help to inform policy makers to design cost effective control strategies. The objective of this study was, therefore, to investigate the network structure of dairy cattle movement and its influence on the transmission and prevalence of BTB in three emerging areas among the Ethiopian dairy belts, namely the cities of Hawassa, Gondar and Mekelle. Methods: A questionnaire survey was conducted in 278 farms to collect data on the pattern of dairy cattle movement for the last 5 years (September 2013 to August 2018). Visualization of the network structure and analysis of the relationship between the network patterns and the prevalence of BTB in these regions were made using social network analysis. Results: The cattle movement network structure display both scale free and small world properties implying local clustering with fewer farms being highly connected, at higher risk of infection, with the potential to act as super spreaders of BTB if infected. Farms having a history of cattle movements onto the herds were more likely to be affected by BTB (OR: 2.2) compared to farms not having a link history. Euclidean distance between farms and the batch size of animals moved on were positively correlated with prevalence of BTB. On the other hand, farms having one or more outgoing cattle showed a decrease on the likelihood of BTB infection (OR = 0.57) compared to farms which maintained their cattle. Conclusion: This study showed that the patterns of cattle movement and size of animal moved between farms contributed to the potential for BTB transmission. The few farms with the bulk of transmission potential could be efficiently targeted by control measures aimed at reducing the spread of BTB. The network structure described can also provide the starting point to build and estimate dynamic transmission models for BTB, and other infectious disease

Prevalence of bovine tuberculosis and its associated risk factors in the emerging dairy belts of regional cities in Ethiopia

Bovine tuberculosis (BTB) has become an economically important disease in dairy herds found in and around Addis Ababa City and is emerging in regional cities like Gondar, Hawassa and Mekelle because of the establishment of dairy farms in the milk sheds of these cities. A cross-sectional study to estimate the prevalence of BTB and identify associated risk factors was conducted between February 2016 and March 2017. A total of 174 herds comprising of 2,754 dairy cattle in the cities of Gondar, Hawassa and Mekelle were tested using the Single Intradermal Comparative Cervical Tuberculin (SICCT) test. Data on herd structure, animal origin, body condition, housing condition, farm hygiene, management and biosecurity practices were collected using a pre-tested structured questionnaire. Generalized Linear Models (GLM) and Generalized Linear Mixed Models (GLMM) were used to analyze the herd and animal level risk factors, respectively. The herd prevalence was 22.4% (95% CI: 17–29%) while the animal prevalence was 5.2% (95% CI: 4–6%) at the cut-off >4 mm. The herd prevalence rose to 65.5% (95% CI: 58–72%) and the animal prevalence rose to 9% (95% CI: 8–10%) when the severe interpretation of >2 mm cut-off was applied. The mean within-herd prevalence in positive farms at the cut-off >4 mm was 22.7% (95% CI: 15–31%). At the herd level, the analysis showed that herd size, farm hygiene, feeding condition and biosecurity were significantly associated with BTB status, while new cattle introductions showed only borderline significance and that age of farm, housing condition, farmers’ educational status and animal health care practice were not significant. At the animal level, the results showed that age and animal origin were identified as significant predictors for BTB positivity but sex and body condition score were not related to BTB status. Descriptive analysis revealed that herds having ‘BTB history’ showed slightly higher likelihood of being BTB positive compared to farms having no previous BTB exposure. In conclusion, this study showed relatively lower average prevalence in the emerging dairy regions as compared to the prevalence observed in and around Addis Ababa City, warranting for implementation of control program at this stage to reduce or possibly stop further transmission of BTB